dryslot Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: does it in a very cmc like fashion, but that's a gfs light Really don't care where it is right now obviously, Main thing, Its gaining support on other models then just the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 CMC is really nice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, i have it out to day 6 and was noting it looks similar...PNA ridge a bit more disjointed. verbatim its rain to snow but yeah, just looking at the overall setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: CMC is really nice here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 No way CMC will be as good...I don't like the n stream energy crushing the ridge out west. GFS is much weaker with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: Man, if I had to deal with cold rain in this after 10 days of cold and dry I would absolutely go nuclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 actually its snow/rain/snow for many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Cross guidance support for something big. That’s all that matters…after I pulled up my briefs. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Hopefully this is one of the biggies that locks in. I still doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cross guidance support for something big. That’s all that matters after I pulled up my briefs. Yea, have to watch the thermals as we get closer....unbelievable, 10 days of arctic cold and its gone as the huge storm approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Cross guidance support for something big. That’s all that matters…after I pulled up my briefs. which also happen to be support for something big? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, have to watch the thermals as we get closer....unbelievable 10 days of arctic cold and its gone as the huge storm approaches. If this one ends up tracking thru BGM again............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: If this one ends up tracking thru BGM again............ I highly doubt it, but can't rule anything out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I highly doubt it, but can't rule anything out at this point. Climo would suggest it shouldn't at this point, But i could see some tainting possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 It looks like the airmass could be an issue with the high leaving. However, I liked seeing the Canadian blow up the 2nd wave rather than the 3rd one, that’s a step in the right direction. Previous runs blew it later and had basically a replica of the inland runner we just had. However, based on the H5 it looked close to something much bigger. Although the airmass is a limiting factor, due to how much northern stream energy is diving in, the low undergoes rapid cyclogenesis and comes up the coast. The trough is too progressive on this run of the Canadian, yet it still gets a high 980s low over the cape. If the trough goes negative just a little earlier, and we get it to close off a bit earlier, the low would undergo extreme cyclogenesis and slow down, potentially deepening to the 970s or even stronger, and stalling near the cape. If the low deepens that much that quickly, although we would likely start as rain I do think the idea that we would be in the high 30s lower 40s well inland with a strong low over the cape to be bullshit. As the low deepens and the precip gets thrown into eastern mass, as precip gets heavier it would dynamically cool the column and create its own cold air. This would result in blizzard conditions with the rain snow line crashing all the way down to the canal, just NW of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Cream in your footy pjs with velcro dumper in the back GFS sounding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: Climo would suggest it shouldn't at this point. That Canadian run verbatim would put me in a rubber room....2' over ORH county, and like 5" of glop here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 10 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I love seeing this on the Canadian, that’s a big improvement over the last run. I do think the idea that the rain snow line would be NW of even Worcester with a 988 min low over Nantucket to be incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 GFS NARCAN would send me to loony bin, too...like a sprig storm with heavy amounts only under best lift....where else? CT and RI up to ORH. Really not a fan of these thermals....hope that changes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Getting caught up but GFS is nothing but blizzard of 78 repete. Winds precip max and temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Getting caught up but GFS is nothing but blizzard of 78 repete. Winds precip max and temps Just warmer....but you are right....can't sweat detes right now. Fun week ahead, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GFS NARCAN would send me to loony bin, too...like a sprig storm with heavy amounts only under best lift....where else? CT and RI up to ORH. Really not a fan of these thermals....hope that changes. Lol Narcan needs some Purple Sensi. It's out lunch. Takes 33degree blinding heavy snow and had it as rain mix. Toss that shit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just warmer....but you are right....can't sweat detes right now. Fun week ahead, bro. No 78 was like that. Narcan fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 946 low on the ensembles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: No 78 was like that. Narcan fail No, I agree. I was just about to post that I think it's too warm with that set up....high isn't perfect, but nothing like that last deal. I think its both... NARCAN is too stingy in low levels, and globals too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 23 minutes ago, PhineasC said: CMC is really nice here. Yay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, I agree. I was just about to post that I think it's too warm with that set up....high isn't perfect, but nothing like that last deal. I think its both... NARCAN is too stingy in low levels, and globals too warm My bed covers are tented. Just for posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 This is from Psuoffman from the Mid Atlantic board, he has lots of credible and informative posts. “Models are speeding up the NS wave. Problem with that is the timing is now off and most of the STJ wave that was responsible for the better hybrid looks gets left behind. That makes it more a miller b scenario and we all know how a Nina miller b is likely to end for us. Still time to shift back towards what we want. Several options. 1) get the 1st NS SW to slow down. 2) get it to dig further west 3) get it to speed up and clear out because there is another behind it that could link up with the stj a day or two later. Right now the timing looks off. We just need it to adjust faster or slower”. I love this development, it’s doing exactly what I was hoping for, turning into a Miller B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 946 low on the ensembles Getting better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 2 minutes ago, George001 said: This is from Psuoffman from the Mid Atlantic board, he has lots of credible and informative posts. “Models are speeding up the NS wave. Problem with that is the timing is now off and most of the STJ wave that was responsible for the better hybrid looks gets left behind. That makes it more a miller b scenario and we all know how a Nina miller b is likely to end for us. Still time to shift back towards what we want. Several options. 1) get the 1st NS SW to slow down. 2) get it to dig further west 3) get it to speed up and clear out because there is another behind it that could link up with the stj a day or two later. Right now the timing looks off. We just need it to adjust faster or slower”. I love this development, it’s doing exactly what I was hoping for, turning into a Miller B. Congrats George. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now