weathafella Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Drops a 40 berger. Sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: 957MB over ack on the 18z GFS on the 30th, That should work. Wow that’s a beaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 I guess that's the only way for some to get to avg, Get it all in one storm.........lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: Wow that’s a beaut. She's a beaut clark! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Lol at 18z GFS. I don't think I have seen a track, result like that in the KU book. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Don’t like the LBE look lol. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, PhineasC said: If I get -20 I assume they will be -35 at least. Yeah probably. Here's the HIE daily records since the ASOS began in 7/96. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Pending the 00z cycle EPS, GEFS and GEPS means ... I'll be putting a thread together for 'Emerging significant cyclogenesis centered around Jan 30' Saturday morning. ..unless there are any objections? -contingent on the former. I feel the signal warrants at minimum early risk assessing as the formulation saga we are looking at seems to have a ... pretty large upside for impact extents, to put it nicely. Leave it at that. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Gfs shows a pretty good SSW event early Feb There is nothing to indicate a major SSW is coming. We’re still waiting for the massive SSWE that wxtwitter and JB said was going to happen back at the beginning of this month……. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Been a very busy day at work, just checking in to see if you are all still being whiny babies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Pending the 00z cycle EPS, GEFS and GEPS means ... I'll be putting a thread together for 'Emerging significant cyclogenesis centered around Jan 30' Saturday morning. ..unless there are any objections? -contingent on the former. I feel the signal warrants at minimum early risk assessing as the formulation saga we are looking at seems to have a ... pretty large upside for impact extents, to put it nicely. Leave it at that. Go for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JKEisMan Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Wow. Happiness and joy throughout New England if that 18z GFS verified next weekend. The bickering would finally stop (at least temporarily). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Disclaimer- it’s the gfs, so cannot be taken with anything more than a grain of salt. Also eastern mass appears to mix with sleet during part of the storm so it would be “only” like 30 inches in Boston instead of 40. Im very skeptical, due to the big 3 not being on board (Canadian extrapolated would be a Rainer, it blows up the following wave and the high begins to leave, like the Euro). Though if you extrapolate the navy, it has a very amplified ridge over Montana, which is the perfect spot if you want nor’easters over the benchmark. I also see some northern stream energy digging at hour 180 with less southern stream, so it looks like the extrapolated Navy would be more of a pure Miller B. Based on what I’m seeing with the lack of blocking, and farther west ridge axis and leaving high on the european and Canadian guidance, my thinking right now is suppression isn’t the concern, an inland runner is. I don’t really buy the GFS solution at all, I feel like there’s more room for us to get screwed than there is to get 30+ inches. I’d rather take my chances with a Navy like evolution, won’t see the 30+ with that but less ways to get screwed, and is more realistic. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Meets the weekend rule 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, George001 said: Disclaimer- it’s the gfs, so cannot be taken with anything more than a grain of salt. Also eastern mass appears to mix with sleet during part of the storm so it would be “only” like 30 inches in Boston instead of 40. Im very skeptical, due to the big 3 not being on board (Canadian extrapolated would be a Rainer, it blows up the following wave and the high begins to leave, like the Euro). Though if you extrapolate the navy, it has a very amplified ridge over Montana, which is the perfect spot if you want nor’easters over the benchmark. I also see some northern stream energy digging at hour 180 with less southern stream, so it looks like the extrapolated Navy would be more of a pure Miller B. Based on what I’m seeing with the lack of blocking, and farther west ridge axis and leaving high on the european and Canadian guidance, my thinking right now is suppression isn’t the concern, an inland runner is. I see your "it's the GFS," "mixing with sleet," "big 3 not being on board" and raise you one it is over 8 days away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 By the way ... I haven't been over there yet but I believe there is already a thread for Tues? I suggest that is above the nominal threshold at this point... I feel like that's heading for a 3-6'er I like Pope's earlier comments because they're are frankly correct - the GFS tends to moosh S/stream waves that are attempting to interact with the N/stream curvature, such as that total synoptic evolution out there is... These other guidance bringing a fast moving flat wave up along the clipper's trailing baroclinic field, NW of the GFS "moosh axis" uh...yeah... And, and lapsing UVM over the polar side, with a least weak frontogen tendencies is fine when we see a 300 mb evac exit jet ripping through just NW of here... the so dubbed "QPF queens" may miss that expanse potential of this... 18z GFS probably starts the concession march... There's a limited upside though, as the total mechanical space isn't huge by any means, but it's a matter of conserving more of it along with favorable jet relays. Can someone move this to that thread LOL f! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: There is nothing to indicate a major SSW is coming. We’re still waiting for the massive SSWE that wxtwitter and JB said was going to happen back at the beginning of this month……. Agreed, the polar vortex is deepening, not weakening. This has been and will continue to be a strong polar vortex winter, and is actually expected to deepen to record strength in early Feb. However, the polar vortex doesn’t appear to be consolidated over the North Pole like 2011-2012. It is on our side of the globe, not a major split or displacement, but could mean there will be cold air around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: By the way ... I haven't been over there yet but I believe there is already a thread for Tues? I suggest that is above the nominal threshold at this point... I feel like that's heading for a 3-6'er I like Pope's earlier comment because there are frankly correct - the GFS tends to moosh S/stream waves that are attempting to interact with the N/stream curvature, such as that total synoptic evolution out there is... These other guidance bringing a fast moving flat wave up along the clipper's trailing baroclinic field, NW of the GFS "moosh axis" uh...yeah... And, and lapsing UVM over the polar side, with a least weak frontogen tendencies is fine when we see a 300 mb evac exit jet ripping through just NW of here... there's "QPF queens" may miss that expanse potential of this... 18z GFS probably starts the concession march... There's a limited upside though, as the total mechanical space isn't huge by any means, but it's a matter of conserving more of it along with favorable jet relays. Can someone move this to that thread LOL f! Tip I agree...first time in a while I think Kev has underplayed a potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Lol at 18z GFS. I don't think I have seen a track, result like that in the KU book. Perhaps Feb 12 - 14 1899. A wee bit colder back then BUT the track was similar. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Tip I agree...first time in a while I think Kev has underplayed a potential I honestly am thinking 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, George001 said: Disclaimer- it’s the gfs, so cannot be taken with anything more than a grain of salt. Also eastern mass appears to mix with sleet during part of the storm so it would be “only” like 30 inches in Boston instead of 40. Im very skeptical, due to the big 3 not being on board (Canadian extrapolated would be a Rainer, it blows up the following wave and the high begins to leave, like the Euro). Though if you extrapolate the navy, it has a very amplified ridge over Montana, which is the perfect spot if you want nor’easters over the benchmark. I also see some northern stream energy digging at hour 180 with less southern stream, so it looks like the extrapolated Navy would be more of a pure Miller B. Based on what I’m seeing with the lack of blocking, and farther west ridge axis and leaving high on the european and Canadian guidance, my thinking right now is suppression isn’t the concern, an inland runner is. I don’t really buy the GFS solution at all, I feel like there’s more room for us to get screwed than there is to get 30+ inches. I’d rather take my chances with a Navy like evolution, won’t see the 30+ with that but less ways to get screwed, and is more realistic. Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Pending the 00z cycle EPS, GEFS and GEPS means ... I'll be putting a thread together for 'Emerging significant cyclogenesis centered around Jan 30' Saturday morning. ..unless there are any objections? -contingent on the former. I feel the signal warrants at minimum early risk assessing as the formulation saga we are looking at seems to have a ... pretty large upside for impact extents, to put it nicely. Leave it at that. Yes please start the thread. You have been great luck for here when you start threads. It’s like 5 for 5 now I think going back to last winter. Others starting threads has been… not so good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Tip I agree...first time in a while I think Kev has underplayed a potential LOL... well I'm not part of any Kevin riots on this one... but I thought he said 4-8" over here in this thread. Will was teasin' 'im earlier. Anyway, I'm sticking to modeling trends, education, and a-priori. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Is this the real life? Is this just fantasy? Caught in a "snow landslide" No escape from reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 12 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I see your "it's the GFS," "mixing with sleet," "big 3 not being on board" and raise you one it is over 8 days away. Yeah, but close enough to put a thread on it later tonight it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Yes please start the thread. You have been great luck for here when you start threads. It’s like 5 for 5 now I think going back to last winter. Others starting threads has been… not so good. Ha! ... yeah, my sense is that we can be reasonably confident in getting systems to occur - but ... y'all are greedy with the cold f'n air up there and need to share. But, that was "contingent on the former" ens means... I'd like to see just a smidge more - at minimum adding to a positive trend and if so overnight... etc. That bulge in the PNA seems to be happening in tandem and that's kinda dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 It’s Fantasy, I need to see the better models get on board before I buy in. Right now I’m thinking inland runner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 If we get the 18z GFS to verify I would be totally content with record warmth and a snowless Feb/Mar. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Caught in a "snow landslide" No escape from reality George is a poor boy, no one loves the Navy He's just a poor boy that's a big weenie Spare him his life from meteorology 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: If we get the 18z GFS to verify I would be totally content with record warmth and a snowless Feb/Mar. GFS cooks up another good one a few days later. Lets go for broke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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