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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Euro blew this Saturday event laughably bad, but it’ll nail the day 9 cutter to Albany 

I’ll start paying attention to that potential on Monday or Tuesday. I think aside from reporting my low temperature tomorrow morning I’m going to take the weekend off from weather watching.

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’ll start paying attention to that potential on Monday or Tuesday. I think aside from reporting my low temperature tomorrow morning I’m going to take the weekend off from weather watching.

Be sure to really log off because Kevin stalks....little bald brother is always watching.

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58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Anyways, I've seen worse EPS runs than this at 8-9 days out....it's an eternity, but at least there is some cross-guidance support on this one.

 

 

Jan21_12zEPS198.png

Jan21_12zEPS204.png

Jan21_12zEPS210.png

Mm... I'd say it's 'good' actually ... just sayn'.   Cuz it has a pretty obvious cluster bias over the NW envelope, which means the spread is smearing that way. 

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... I'd say it's 'good' actually ... just sayn'.   Cuz it has a pretty obvious cluster bias over the NW envelope, which means the spread is smearing that way. 

Yea, the mean is skewed by some solutions near Bermuda...same thing we saw with respect to the inland bomb, which cast the illusion that it looked good for the coast. In this case, its better than it appears via the mean.

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm... I'd say it's 'good' actually ... just sayn'.   Cuz it has a pretty obvious cluster bias over the NW envelope, which means the spread is smearing that way. 

Yeah I was slow-rolling the description there for a D8-9 threat. It is actually a very good signal for that far out....but I didn't want to start hyping too much. We know how different this could look tomorrow or the next day.

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38 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Awesome streamer...hitting Marshfield harder too than before:

 

Jan21_305pmRadar.gif

Reminds me of when I was a child in Michigan, watching solid white LE squall walls NE, and dark gray SW ... while occasionally a virga blown open 7,000 ft tall CB smear brought mere flakes to the air from over head.   Kalamazoo was always ... alway between the snow bands that looked a lot like that same radar - primitive radar ... 1982.  Anway, there would be blizzard warnings in Van Burren and Barry Co, while we mocked flurries.  

Obviously they're not getting blizzard down there in the SE zones, but it does show how life of LE or OE ... is a game of some win some none by a big distinction.

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- altho, ...the really neat ones is when the -15 F blows across the Lake, and only modifies it to -3 to 5 above... The air is more like mist snow everywhere and radar just has this cryo-mist/miasma ..  I've seen that set up with 1/4 mi vis everywhere, but its rare.

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54 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I think I get one day above freezing in the next week.  By this time next week you’ll be able to walk on most rivers.

Frigid.

313 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

...Bitterly cold temperatures are forecast for the North Country
tonight...

Another round of cold temperatures are expected tonight with low
temperatures generally dipping to between 10 and 30 below zero.
Although winds will be light to calm, protect against hypothermia
and expect to need multiple layers of clothing if heading
outdoors. Running or even a brisk walk in these conditions could
result in frost bite on exposed skin.
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21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It also looks more like a Miller B on the EPS.

It could be a subsume phase scenario ...   I see evidence of a strongly evolving lower latitude Miller A/B hybrid... Then, it may get captured by additional mechanics doing what the term suggests... subsuming = settling in and usurping the low as it's own...That's when all hell really breaks lose.

Feb 1978 - no not a analog ..just sayin' this Ray - did that. It was an intermediate stream wave ripping through the OV and it merged with a very non-descript wave off the Georgia coast, and then the N/stream nugget bullied in and captured...

But, getting waaaaaay ahead of ourselves.  It's just that I see all kinds of potential in there.    I wouldn't have brought it up this morning if it were not for the 1/3 of the numerical telecon members showing a camel back out there nearing D10 ... That's like, ok ... are we admitting its there finally?

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1 hour ago, NeonPeon said:

Rain is worse than cold and dry.

You cant go outside and it's ugly.

 

 

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Frigid.

313 PM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

...Bitterly cold temperatures are forecast for the North Country
tonight...

Another round of cold temperatures are expected tonight with low
temperatures generally dipping to between 10 and 30 below zero.
Although winds will be light to calm, protect against hypothermia
and expect to need multiple layers of clothing if heading
outdoors. Running or even a brisk walk in these conditions could
result in frost bite on exposed skin.

God forbid you get your hair wet, though lol

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It could be a subsume phase scenario ...   I see evidence of a strongly evolving lower latitude Miller A/B hybrid... Then, it may get captured by additional mechanics doing what the term suggests... subsuming = settling in and usurping the low as it's own...That's when when all hell really breaks lose.

Feb 1978 - no not a analog ..just sayin' this Ray - did that. It was an intermediate stream wave ripping through the OV and it merged with a very non-descript wave off the Georgia coast, and then the N/stream nugget bullied in and captured...

But, getting waaaaaay ahead of ourselves.  It's just that see all kinds of potential in there.    I wouldn't have brought it up this morning if it were not for the 1/3 of the numerical telecon members showing a camel back out there nearing D10 ... That's like, ok ... are we admitting its there finally?

Yea, I noted that same subtle tendency....those are the higher end "hybrids" that I was alluding to...like Feb 2013, 1978 etc. Feb 1978 is indeed a hybrid, though many don't consider as such bc the s stream SW was so minor, but technically it is. I remember Will debated me on that before.

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16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Reminds me of when I was a child in Michigan, watching solid white LE squall walls NE, and dark gray SW ... while occasionally a virga blown open 7,000 ft tall CB smear brought mere flakes to the air from over head.   Kalamazoo was always ... alway between the snow bands that looked a lot like that same radar - primitive radar ... 1982.  Anway, there would be blizzard warnings in Van Burren and Barry Co, while we mocked flurries.  

Obviously they're not getting blizzard down there in the SE zones, but it does show how life of LE or OE ... is a game of some win some none by a big distinction.

OES makes me nostalgic for Upstate NY.  Went to college at Syracuse and the lake effect bands that would move through with such isolated impacts always fascinated me.  Really cool localized weather phenomena.

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