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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think the key is not having it bury itself so far south....but there is a lot of time for that to change. When I look at the D7 map at H5, there's some pretty good potential to make that a big system for us without screwing around for another 48 hours.

Climatologically speaking, odds are always against that....I mean, LBSW is one thing, but closing H5 on the gulf coast is another entirely.

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Well ... guess we got us a legit storm signaled now LOL...  

No, but now that all three camps carry the card -  that's something. 

We can let it marinate in the runs.  Unless the signal is "one of those," we don't want it perfect as winter storm enthusiasts, this far in advance anyway..  Because, unless it is "one of those," a storm in the D9 range seldom survives model grenades over time, ending up some mangled variation of what was once so appealing ..

 

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro is just another model now.   Did gfs improve or did euro get worse or both?

I think the EURO is particularly struggling with this pattern....but in the grand scheme of things, its more that the GFS has closed the gap IMHO. But EURO is not as bad as it looks right now.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the EURO is particularly struggling with this pattern....but in the grand scheme of things, its more that the GFS has closed the gap IMHO. But EURO is not as bad as it looks right now.

The Euro verbatim would be classic winter 21/22. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the EURO is particularly struggling with this pattern....but in the grand scheme of things, its more that the GFS has closed the gap IMHO. But EURO is not as bad as it looks right now.

The again, like Bill Parcells said, "you are what your record says you are!'    And right now, Euro is not going to the 2021-22 winter storm forecasting playoffs...

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7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro is just another model now.   Did gfs improve or did euro get worse or both?

Well, wait a minute ..hold it hold it hold it.

Why are we turning phrases like that over a system that's day 9 ?  ... The euro did finally cave on this weekend aspect at D4 which has always been it's better arena: the < D4.5 ... 

I wonder if some of all this is rabble roused reputation milling, then of course time solidifies it as "fact"   I guess it's like in baseball, 'you're only as goods as your last at bat'

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Just now, George001 said:

I’m actually not a fan of the look on the models. They close off at 500 mb way too far south and the high leaves by the time the storm gets up here. Looks like Miller asshole to me, we need this to become more of a Miller B.

Well, look....we aren't getting 2'+ out of a pure Miller A...but they can still work out, and we can't be picky right now. There is also time to modulate this....I doubt it closes off quite that far south and we could also get some n stream insert. Bottom line is don't sweat details at this juncture.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, look....we aren't getting 2'+ out of a pure Miller A...but they can still work out, and we can't be picky right now. There is also time to modulate this....I doubt it closes off quite that far south and we could also get some n stream insert. Bottom line is don't sweat details at this juncture.

Yea. We do the pbp because that is what we do here but when the dust settles…at this lead time…we don’t sweat the deets, just keep the big signal.

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4 minutes ago, George001 said:

I’m actually not a fan of the look on the models. They close off at 500 mb way too far south and the high leaves by the time the storm gets up here. Looks like Miller asshole to me, we need this to become more of a Miller B.

When you and Ditty are on board for nothing, everyone else pulls up their chair to get closer to their monitors. 

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