512high Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Someone further northeast must have 4"+ by now...that band is just hammering Kingston/Duxbury/far northern PYM. James is laughing at us all! God bless 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm not expecting much from it, but there were two sort of "interesting" potentials with that one....the first potential was solely northern stream giving us a NJ-model redeveloper....that idea went out the window a few cycles ago when the northern stream trended too far north. A second emerging "interesting" scenario started showing up when that energy in the southwest got ejected and rides around the base of the northern stream giving the system new life for something bigger than a 1-3" nuisance event. I think the southern stream scenario is tougher because it requires both good timing and also having the southern stream maintain its integrity long enough before getting ground up by the geopotential gradient.....but the GGEM shows how its done. Ukie was fairly close but the shortwave weakened a little too quickly. That would be LBSW...pass. Sounds like last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Big old fat Cape cod Bay flakes. Poundtown. Still only a whisker over 2" comes and goes. This is the goods here. Should get us over 3" fast. . 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 I’ll gladly take another 1-3” . Yes please . No big boys this year 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that is the crux of why my area has struggled the past several years...the absence of those SWFEs that I usually clean up on. For as much as I love the huge coastals, most of those are better either closer to the coast or further inland...so not having the SWFEs to supplement my snowfall has killed. Been awhile since we had a good SWFE here. One of those 8" events that ends with a crust of sleet. Those are good for the counting stats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 No sign of a warmup on the gfs in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, amarshall said: Big old fat Cape cod Bay flakes. Poundtown. Still only a whisker over 2" comes and goes. This is the goods here. Should get us over 3" fast. . You might end up with 6"+ by the time we get to tomorrow lunchtime. It'll be interesting to track but theoretically it might be even better OES late tonight and early tomorrow....but these are often very quirky as I"m sure you are aware. This is a really impressive streamer though that has set up over PYM county. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Gefs gone wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ll gladly take another 1-3” . Yes please . No big boys this year GGEM kind of shows what I thought the GFS was attempting to get to yesterday for the day 5 deal. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ll gladly take another 1-3” . Yes please . No big boys this year I’m with you on that. Nuisance or not, an inch or two of snow early next week would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I’ll gladly take another 1-3” . Yes please . No big boys this year Start drinking early so you can handle the big boy, he’s coming. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 I'm kinda in Pope's camp on that Tues aspect... I don't speak to snow totals per se, but I mean I see where he's coming from. And he's right about the operational GFS, a model that ranges between N/stream bias to just having an attitude of disrespecting S/stream features in general. Lol Seriously, even if the S/stream S/W is conserved, "IF" the N/stream is nuanced-less compressing at the time that thing zips up out of the TV toward S of New England, than a GGEM solution certainly enters the discussion. We should note that the Clipper aspect, did have - originally when we began tracking it ... - question related to how it may or not interact with the southern stream.. It appears we're heading toward a result where the clipper actually outruns and doesn't interfere in either way, and the S/stream may just as well work on us using it's own devices. It's a real real needle threader -one requiring the GFS not be N/stream mash happy, so we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs gone wild 006z looked better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 006z looked better This still looks nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 The never haves get to bask in their glory today. Too early for imperial Stouts? Asking for a friend. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 006z looked better Thing is ...I looked over the 06z and it didn't look good to me - can you demo that? The 18z yesterday was intriguing,...00z less so, and the 06z even less - that's what I saw. I'm a little confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, JC-CT said: GGEM kind of shows what I thought the GFS was attempting to get to yesterday for the day 5 deal. We will see. Yeah.. Tuesday will be snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Thing is ...I looked over the 06z and it didn't look good to me - can you demo that? The 18z yesterday was intriguing,...00z less so, and the 06z even less - that's what I saw. I'm a little confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Start drinking early so you can handle the big boy, he’s coming. The only big boy coming is the 10 foot bong in your basement weed room . 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: This looks like a different system....that's 264 hours and the system we're tracking is more like 192-216ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 6z gefs was worse for 29/30th but 12z will be back on board. It will follow the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: This looks like a different system....that's 264 hours and the system we're tracking is more like 192-216ish. Well, I'm not really pinning time frames down yet at that lead...just looking for coherent signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: How's that a comparison between 18, 00z and 06z ? That's not telling us anything - or what am I looking at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, JC-CT said: GGEM kind of shows what I thought the GFS was attempting to get to yesterday for the day 5 deal. We will see. I actually think this solution makes some sense. This set-up should produce a decent low pressure system somewhere on the east coast. Meanwhile, in the longer range, the Canucks are trying to resurrect November 1950. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: 6z gefs was worse for 29/30th but 12z will be back on board. It will follow the OP. 6z was better if you want a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: How's that a comparison between 18, 00z and 06z ? That's not telling us anything - or what am I looking at It had a low closer to the coast...not that comlicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It had a low closer to the coast...not that comlicated. What's complicating is you running out to 260+ hours to tell us the 06z was better for the system around Jan 30 that we've been discussing. I guess you turned the page on us LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 The snows will come when everyone has lost all hope. 12z runs weren't too bad. I like the GFS/ggem combo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Why is everyone creaming their jeans on a faux event a week + away when Tuesday snower is right in front of us? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: What's complicating is you running out to 260+ hours to tell us the 06z was better for the system around Jan 30 that we've been discussing. I guess you turned the page on us LOL Yes, I guess...I'm just not married to any particular timeframe at this range in fast flow. I supposed I could have explicitly qualified that, but also wasn't sure if it isn't implicit at that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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