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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'm not expecting much from it, but there were two sort of "interesting" potentials with that one....the first potential was solely northern stream giving us a NJ-model redeveloper....that idea went out the window a few cycles ago when the northern stream trended too far north. A second emerging "interesting" scenario started showing up when that energy in the southwest got ejected and rides around the base of the northern stream giving the system new life for something bigger than a 1-3" nuisance event. I think the southern stream scenario is tougher because it requires both good timing and also having the southern stream maintain its integrity long enough before getting ground up by the geopotential gradient.....but the GGEM shows how its done. Ukie was fairly close but the shortwave weakened a little too quickly.

That would be LBSW...pass. Sounds like last year.

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think that is the crux of why my area has struggled the past several years...the absence of those SWFEs that I usually clean up on. For as much as I love the huge coastals, most of those are better either closer to the coast or further inland...so not having the SWFEs to supplement my snowfall has killed.

Been awhile since we had a good SWFE here. One of those 8" events that ends with a crust of sleet. Those are good for the counting stats. 

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3 minutes ago, amarshall said:

Big old fat Cape cod Bay flakes. Poundtown. Still only a whisker over 2" comes and goes. This is the goods here. Should get us over 3" fast. 

64d3f3920cbcb797cb34c883059554ae.jpg


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You might end up with 6"+ by the time we get to tomorrow lunchtime. It'll be interesting to track but theoretically it might be even better OES late tonight and early tomorrow....but these are often very quirky as I"m sure you are aware. This is a really impressive streamer though that has set up over PYM county.

 

 

Jan21_1215pmRadar.gif

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I'm kinda in Pope's camp on that Tues aspect...  I don't speak to snow totals per se, but I mean I see where he's coming from.

And he's right about the operational GFS, a model that ranges between N/stream bias to just having an attitude of disrespecting S/stream features in general.   Lol

Seriously, even if the S/stream S/W is conserved, "IF" the N/stream is nuanced-less compressing at the time that thing zips up out of the TV toward S of New England, than a GGEM solution certainly enters the discussion.  

We should note that the Clipper aspect, did have - originally when we began tracking it ... - question related to how it may or not interact with the southern stream..  It appears we're heading toward a result where the clipper actually outruns and doesn't interfere in either way, and the S/stream may just as well work on us using it's own devices.   It's a real real needle threader -one requiring the GFS not be N/stream mash happy, so we'll see.

 

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

006z looked better

Thing is ...I looked over the 06z and it didn't look good to me - can you demo that?   The 18z yesterday was intriguing,...00z less so, and the 06z even less - that's what I saw.  I'm a little confused

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15 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

GGEM kind of shows what I thought the GFS was attempting to get to yesterday for the day 5 deal. We will see.

I actually think this solution makes some sense.  This set-up should produce a decent low pressure system somewhere on the east coast.  Meanwhile, in the longer range, the Canucks are trying to resurrect November 1950.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It had a low closer to the coast...not that comlicated.

What's complicating is you running out to 260+ hours to tell us the 06z was better for the system around Jan 30 that we've been discussing.  

I guess you turned the page on us LOL

 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What's complicating is you running out to 260+ hours to tell us the 06z was better for the system around Jan 30 that we've been discussing.  

I guess you turned the page on us LOL

 

Yes, I guess...I'm just not married to any particular timeframe at this range in fast flow. I supposed I could have explicitly qualified that, but also wasn't sure if it isn't implicit at that range.

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