40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: Its just crawls up the coast still though. I'm sure it does on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't even consider that realistic....I think we need to have that weaker. Yeah the northern stream only draws it due north when the low goes through BGM....when we need it, it will act as a kicker. That's what happens in a White Snake winter like this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm sure it does on the model. I don't see that scenario playing out at all, That would rake Florida to Maine................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 LOL....it tries to pull a December '92 with the easterly deep layer flow and just annihilate eastern SNE with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Too funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Ray and I would prob trade the rest of the winter to get this one to verify 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 12z GGEM likes the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tunafish Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: To funny. which part? How Sherbrooke CAN gets less than coastal SC, or the part about how we'll need PT from all the show we'll never shovel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: 12z GGEM likes the 26th. Yeah it makes the southern low more dominant and it's able to get a decent WCB going plus some ML fronto on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Ray and I would prob trade the rest of the winter to get this one to verify I have already said...done. I will take one event like that and not another flake....and mind you, I would still have endured a fourth consecutive season of well below normal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Yeah it makes the southern low more dominant and it's able to get a decent WCB going plus some ML fronto on the backside Even the 12z GFS was not that far off, Would be good if we can get that one back a bit, At least its something closer to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Look, to me its all about the trend with respect to that kicker, and this run wasn't good AFAIC....couldn't care less about the ultimate clown map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, tunafish said: which part? How Sherbrooke CAN gets less than coastal SC, or the part about how we'll need PT from all the show we'll never shovel? All of the above. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have already said...done. I will take one event like that and not another flake....and mind you, I would still have endured a fourth consecutive season of well below normal snowfall. Yep....I'm already resigned to having a below normal snowfall winter, so I'd take the HECS and run if offered right now. I'm aware that there is still the chance we get lucky and rip off a great 3-4 weeks somewhere in there, but I wouldn't trade a big storm for that longshot chance.....not that any of have the choice anyway, lol....but that is where my mindset is at. I'm shooting for the big bucks at this point, not the small game. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Nice 12z runs. Can the pope have his day? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep....I'm already resigned to having a below normal snowfall winter, so I'd take the HECS and run if offered right now. I'm aware that there is still the chance we get lucky and rip off a great 3-4 weeks somewhere in there, but I wouldn't trade a big storm for that longshot chance.....not that any of have the choice anyway, lol....but that is where my mindset is at. I'm shooting for the big bucks at this point, not the small game. Welcome to Ray's world...nice to have you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Tuesday still looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 12z Ukie trying on 1/26 too...nuisance event in the end, but not far off from a GGEM solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 GGEM for Tuesday would put a lot of people in a better mood. Solid 4-8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, dryslot said: 12z GGEM likes the 26th. Real nice looking run across all of New England. That would be a crowd pleaser. 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, PhineasC said: Real nice looking run across all of New England. That would be a crowd pleaser. 6-10. Just give us something god dammit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: GGEM for Tuesday would put a lot of people in a better mood. Solid 4-8 I'll believe it when we have consensus on Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HinghamBoss Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Light dusting here. We come in and out of heavy flaking. Hard to believe I got more from today than yesterday. Maybe winds will shift slightly later and can get one of those bands up here a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 18 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the northern stream only draws it due north when the low goes through BGM....when we need it, it will act as a kicker. That's what happens in a White Snake winter like this year. Ray's going down the only road he's ever known? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Real nice looking run across all of New England. That would be a crowd pleaser. 6-10. Yes, you can get on board with that southern wave and ditch the moose farts for this one. This one can snow decently for most of the forum. They'll be plenty of other chances for moose flatulence. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 This appears to me to be a toned down version of the Bible bomb we saw on the 12z run yesterday ... It really takes a similar track, just not as deep, the mechanics perhaps 70% of what yesterday's buzz saw was working with. And as Will or whomever that was pointed out about the U/A, it's largeness, then expanding as it comes N, we sort of trade yesterday's intensity for mass and still ends up with a major impact... Again, this to me is a real event out there... probably the next thread-able eventually but now isn't it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Couple inches of absolute feathers on the carver Plymouth line at the airport 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 12z Ukie trying on 1/26 too...nuisance event in the end, but not far off from a GGEM solution. For the record ...I don't believe we were assessing much more than that? - originally, I wasn't. It was a clipper being watched as the next credible "anything" really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Couple inches of absolute feathers on the carver Plymouth line at the airport Someone further northeast must have 4"+ by now...that band is just hammering Kingston/Duxbury/far northern PYM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: For the record ...I don't believe we were assessing much more than that? - originally, I wasn't. It was a clipper being watched as the next credible "anything" really. I'm not expecting much from it, but there were two sort of "interesting" potentials with that one....the first potential was solely northern stream giving us a NJ-model redeveloper....that idea went out the window a few cycles ago when the northern stream trended too far north. A second emerging "interesting" scenario started showing up when that energy in the southwest got ejected and rides around the base of the northern stream giving the system new life for something bigger than a 1-3" nuisance event. I think the southern stream scenario is tougher because it requires both good timing and also having the southern stream maintain its integrity long enough before getting ground up by the geopotential gradient.....but the GGEM shows how its done. Ukie was fairly close but the shortwave weakened a little too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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