EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its an overrunning look....you went get a KU in that pattern, but there is a cold source lurking nearby. The only thing that will mess this up is another strong Negative NAO like December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That look is confusing to me. The blues are west BUT the SER is way south of us. Is that showing a large model spread or just a transition to a western trough. It’s basically a Feb 94 pattern. Monster AK/Bering ridge with western trough but Se ridge is crushed enough by the AK ridging that we are cold. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s basically a Feb 94 pattern. Monster AK/Bering ridge with western trough but Se ridge is crushed enough by the AK ridging that we are cold. That would be awesome. One of my favorite winter months of all time! Conscious that u are alluding to the overall structure and not actual outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: That would be awesome. One of my favorite winter months of all time! Overrated in my neck of the woods, but at this point, I'd do handstands. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 56 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Maybe, but it’s been cold. BTV doesn’t see fake cold and they are progged to see sun-zero temps like 2003-2004 this month when all is said and done. The next 10 days look cold. January of yore? I lived in Burlington from 2002-2007 and worked in property management. Jan 2003/2004 were nightmares with all the sprinklers/pipes/no heat issues. I literally never slept on all those subzero nights but made an obscene amount of money. Burlington had crazy snow those years as well. And that Valentines day storm was one of the most epic snowstorms I have ever experienced. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 06z GEFS are actually tucky for the day 10 deal. Knowing this season, it will end up a cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 06z GEFS are actually tucky for the day 10 deal. Knowing this season, it will end up a cold front. 00z EPS has a few decent members west...several more than 12z had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 06z GEFS are actually tucky for the day 10 deal. Knowing this season, it will end up a cold front. Seems like our only two options recently are sliding south and OTS or cutting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: @CoastalWx This pattern has been hinted at but not truly set up yet because the western trough was so anomolously deep. If it sets up more like that then we have a very fun time ahead. It could all go to shite, but we should consider that there is also a possibility of a light storm mid week, a big storm around the 30th, and then a cold overrunning pattern setting up. Both extremes are on the table it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Pretty nice moves overnight for the big one. Euro op had it offshore but close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 21, 2022 Author Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pretty nice moves overnight for the big one. Euro op had it offshore but close If my preference mattered, I’d do one KU, keep it chilly for a few days after and then go full torched Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Seems like our only two options recently are sliding south and OTS or cutting. Recently? Try the past four years...there is a reason everything is SOP or NNE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: If my preference mattered, I’d do one KU, keep it chilly for a few days after and then go full torched Feb. I'd go KU into overrunning for Feb. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Ya that EPS snapshot was fine for us..I’d take that in a heartbeat for February…which is the snowiest month of the winter for us anyway. That would work fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 10 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: This pattern has been hinted at but not truly set up yet because the western trough was so anomolously deep. If it sets up more like that then we have a very fun time ahead. It could all go to shite, but we should consider that there is also a possibility of a light storm mid week, a big storm around the 30th, and then a cold overrunning pattern setting up. Both extremes are on the table it seems. We are due from some sort of evolution like that....N Mass has no business having basement snow totals this season. Maybe it goes down like that and is just a fluky season like '79-80, but always bet against that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd go KU into overrunning for Feb. Yup..that could change the tenor quick. Hoping for one real good one this year. Hope we can pull something off. And that overrunning look isn’t bad at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 -10 here for the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Yup..that could change the tenor quick. Hoping for one real good one this year. Hope we can pull something off. And that overrunning look isn’t bad at all. On paper, it looks good....but I just need to shovel it to believe it, at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: On paper, it looks good....but I just need to shovel it to believe it, at this point. Oh absolutely..that goes without saying. I mean what were in now is a good look, and we can’t land a f’n minnow, let alone a decent significant snowstorm. So ya, I agree wholeheartedly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 3-cycle trend of the GEFs reversed overnight … but EPS goes the other way - a little hm Numerical telecon (GEFs) have split with 1/3 of the members newly offering conceptual space for eastern amplitude. The previous renditions were not. So that method moved ‘a little’ in amp direction despite the graphical illustration … Plus with the EPS … it could all just be typical mind game where detection leads to finding least excuse to conceal —> perhaps come back. Time will tell. I was thinking to just let the 30th ride but these are significant hints that something’s there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Oh absolutely..that goes without saying. I mean what were in now is a good look, and we can’t land a f’n minnow, let alone a decent significant snowstorm. So ya, I agree wholeheartedly. Tide will turn eventually...if not this season, I can not imagine it not turning next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: 3-cycle trend of the GEFs reversed overnight … but EPS goes the other way - a little hm Numerical telecon (GEFs) have split with 1/3 of the members newly offering conceptual space for eastern amplitude. The previous renditions were not. So that method moved ‘a little’ in amp direction despite the graphical illustration … Plus with the EPS … it could all just be typical mind game where detection leads to finding least excuse to conceal —> perhaps come back. Time will tell. I was thinking to just let the 30th ride but these are significant hints that something’s there. GEFS reversed again at 06z in a big way...most amped suite yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 17 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: If my preference mattered, I’d do one KU, keep it chilly for a few days after and then go full torched Feb. If I had my preference, I would have 3"-6" twice a week, punctuated by a nice 8"-12" storm once a month and temps would stay between 0° and 25° right through until March 15th and then I would awake the next morning to sunny skies, green grass and all the golf courses open. It never works out that way. I never catch a break. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEFS reversed again at 06z in a big way...most amped suite yet. 6z looks way se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, mreaves said: If I had my preference, I would have 3"-6" twice a week, punctuated by a nice 8"-12" storm once a month and temps would stay between 0° and 25° right through until March 15th and then I would awake the next morning to sunny skies, green grass and all the golf courses open. It never works out that way. I never catch a break. Sorry to ask this, but what does KU stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Tide will turn eventually...if not this season, I can not imagine it not turning next season. We absolutely cannot buy a classic juiced SWFE recently....either the antecedent airmass is crap or even when it's decent, something goes wrong like the shortwave is sheared and tracks through Ottawa or something. At some point that is going to change. Hopefully it's this winter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Just now, Snowcrazed71 said: Sorry to ask this, but what does KU stand for? Kocin-Ucellini. They wrote a book about major snowstorms and KU is shorthand for one that is big enough to be in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Sorry to ask this, but what does KU stand for? Kocin, Ucellini....coauthors of the book on major ewast coast snow storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We absolutely cannot buy a classic juiced SWFE recently....either the antecedent airmass is crap or even when it's decent, something goes wrong. At some point that is going to change. Hopefully it's this winter. I think that is the crux of why my area has struggled the past several years...the absence of those SWFEs that I usually clean up on. For as much as I love the huge coastals, most of those are better either closer to the coast or further inland...so not having the SWFEs to supplement my snowfall has killed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEFS reversed again at 06z in a big way...most amped suite yet. Haven’t loaded em on my phone. Had to chauffeur sister to radiology her cancer stuff and those graphics’ URL I know of don’t bootstrap/weren’t designed for this interface so was gonna wait for the 12s later in the day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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