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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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3 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Clipper next week looks good for NNE but I can see why the SNE gang is not talking about it.

We have been tho ..heh, some of us.  Will...Ray myself. 

It's on the table.  The 18z GEFs actually has a modest signal trend that's better than 12z. 

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2 hours ago, PhineasC said:

Although the Euro can’t even get it right 48 hours out these days. 

It is pretty funny that the Euro has become almost unreliable in the 3 (maybe 2) to 10 day range, but its weeklies are looked at as if they have a long track record of being correct, which they don't.  They did ok with seeing some of the January cold but have been brutally wrong many times.  They also tend to be very unstable.   The one thing going for this latest set is that it fits the scenario of many of the La Nina based winter forecasts, which strongly suggested February would trend very warm into the midmonth period before flipping to cold at the end on into March.  Probably the biggest thing they have going for them right now, is that they are predicting warmth, which rarely doesn't verify these days.

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2 hours ago, George001 said:

not gonna lie, I’m getting a little concerned that my area is going to finish the season with less than 40 inches of snow. The polar vortex is deepening, not weakening and the long range models are showing a trough out west. Things can change but not looking great right now. What are some possible wildcards that could cause things to break our way and prevent the polar vortex from deepening and consolidating over the North Pole? 

Your fantasy has ended.

1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

It’ll change. 

Next year.

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Bring it. End this shit.

Finnish him?

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10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

0/-10 with a wind chill of -15F currently in the valley/village at 6:30pm.

Tonight is going to be brutal.  Heating bill the last month wasn't pleasant.  We've had some legit cold.

Yeah, that was missing last season. Deeper cold shots this season for sure.

3 degrees here currently.

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This is an impressive signal growth here...  There's some exotically deep members, but the main take away is that is a clear coherent signal at this point.  The spread has increased across multiple consecutive runs.  The 12z EPS did trend a little ... but I haven't seen the 18 -

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_39.png

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is an impressive signal growth here...  There's some exotically deep members, but the main take away is that is a clear coherent signal at this point.  The spread has increased across multiple consecutive runs.  The 12z EPS did trend a little ... but I haven't seen the 18 -

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_39.png

Wrong thread, this one's for complaining

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13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

This is an impressive signal growth here...  There's some exotically deep members, but the main take away is that is a clear coherent signal at this point.  The spread has increased across multiple consecutive runs.  The 12z EPS did trend a little ... but I haven't seen the 18 -

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_39.png

CCB signal?

wf50ob4.gif

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