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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What an epic torch on the weeklies for February. We technically don’t have a February thread yet but that would basically end winter after the first few days of the month. 
 

 

Too soon? Worried that we may flip to an eastern trough in spring. If only we could delay this till March.

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Too soon? Worried that we may flip to an eastern trough in spring. If only we could delay this till March.

I’m sure it will flip post-equinox when it becomes useless. 
 

All joking aside, weeklies have been pretty insistent on February being done after the first week, so we’ll see if they are actually right this time. 
 

If we’re not gonna cash in between now and 1/30, I’m throwing in the towel on salvaging a normal winter…but of course I’ll still be rooting for a huge storm at some point. I’d make a deal with the devil and punt all of February if we could get a monster in March. 

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22 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

For everyone or is this a SNE centric post? I can torch a little in Feb and still get snow. 

This is an all out torch for everyone in the east....but yeah, at 1500 feet in the whites you can still do ok as long as the pattern is active....which it probably would be given there is still PAC ridging into the Bering and then sending the PJ down into the west coast. But who knows....the weeklies aren't very useful beyond week 2/3...they aren't much better than the CFS in that range, and the CFS has a much colder pattern:

 

Jan20_CFSweek3-4.png

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5 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

We talking NBD warmth like 60's?  Or are we talking 2018/2019 like warmth, pushing 80 in Feb?  Let's do it!  I'm sure KBED will be 78F with bees buzzing, while I'm 48F with a sea breeze.

Weekly mean pattern won't tell us enough detail to determine whether we get 70....given how rare 70 is (despite doing it twice recently in 2017 and 2018), it probably wouldn't be that type of warmth. Esp given the ridging still present over the Bering. You'd need an obscene western trough which is always possible, but you wouldn't predict that far out.

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

You’re going down with the rest of us

Kiss of death here is the dry pattern. I just received 15 inches of snow from an inland runner so I can work with less than perfect setups but if it goes dry then blah. Makes the torch days even worse because there is nothing to refresh it. This happened last March here. We had torch days but it refused to precipitate any more than just scattered stuff. 

I am willing to roll the dice with 30 degrees and a firehose if that's what's coming. 

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not gonna lie, I’m getting a little concerned that my area is going to finish the season with less than 40 inches of snow. The polar vortex is deepening, not weakening and the long range models are showing a trough out west. Things can change but not looking great right now. What are some possible wildcards that could cause things to break our way and prevent the polar vortex from deepening and consolidating over the North Pole? 

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Just now, George001 said:

not gonna lie, I’m getting a little concerned that my area is going to finish the season with less than 40 inches of snow. The polar vortex is deepening, not weakening and the long range models are showing a trough out west. Things can change but not looking great right now. What are some possible wildcards that could cause things to break our way and prevent the polar vortex from deepening and consolidating over the North Pole? 

Luck, lots of luck…and a little:

image.jpeg.52ac3fbe5f7f5d91050ad11170ba45ba.jpeg

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weekly mean pattern won't tell us enough detail to determine whether we get 70....given how rare 70 is (despite doing it twice recently in 2017 and 2018), it probably wouldn't be that type of warmth. Esp given the ridging still present over the Bering. You'd need an obscene western trough which is always possible, but you wouldn't predict that far out.

Given the predictive quality of the weeklies and the less than stellar performance of the deterministic models (yeah, they didn't give me enough snow) to date, I'm going with a colder than normal February, but in keeping with the trend of this winter, a fairly quiet month.  Not a great one for us weenies here.

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