Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Really? Cuz February is the snowiest month..so I respectfully disagree with you on that one. Just speaking for my location, we are fine here..very easy to reach normal snowfall, with two weeks of January left, and all of February (the snowiest month) to go. But I’m speaking for here. Just because some of us aren’t locked into the doom and gloom that others are, doesn’t make us wrong either. I completely understand, it could all go south and we rat. That can happen. However, I’m choosing not to believe that currently, with what I see presented before me at this time. I realize that others are not in as good of shape, and can understand the frustration completely. When we had to listen how great feb 2015 was out east..it wasn’t all that spectacular over here(still good), but no record breaker... not by a long shot. So I get it. I'm not frustrated. I had exceedingly low expectations for this winter. The only winter that I had lower expectations for was 15-16.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I'm not frustrated. I had exceedingly low expectations for this winter. The only winter that I had lower expectations for was 15-16.. Ok cool. I understand. I’m choosing to think we end up at least at normal snowfall here. with two weeks of January to go, and all of February to go, and who knows what first half of March can bring? That’s my expectation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, WinterWolf said: Ok cool. I understand. I’m choosing to think we end up at least at normal snowfall here. with two weeks of January to go, and all of February to go, and who knows what first half of March can bring? That’s my expectation. We are going to need 50 inches of snow to approach normal here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: We are going to need 50 inches of snow to approach normal here... Ya there. I get it there. But here I need about 33” more or so. Easily doable here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: Yeah GEM brought back the 26th, while the gfs and gefs individual members are mostly pretty lame for that period. Can kicked once again. April will be here before we know it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Can kicked once again. April will be here before we know it. There's not much left of the can.. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Can kicked once again. April will be here before we know it. then it will snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He is the chief met in a major Boston market and just published a popular book, I think he's good in that respect. May just be that he feels this winter blows. Do you know the title ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: then it will snow I hope not. By then I’m pulling for torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Do you know the title ? The Mighty Storms of New England 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Really? Cuz February is the snowiest month..so I respectfully disagree with you on that one. Just speaking for my location, we are fine here..very easy to reach normal snowfall, with two weeks of January left, and all of February (the snowiest month) to go. But I’m speaking for here. Just because some of us aren’t locked into the doom and gloom that others are, doesn’t make us wrong either. I completely understand, it could all go south and we rat. That can happen. However, I’m choosing not to believe that currently, with what I see presented before me at this time. I realize that others are not in as good of shape, and can understand the frustration completely. When we had to listen how great feb 2015 was out east..it wasn’t all that spectacular over here(still good), but no record breaker... not by a long shot. So I get it. Yea, I never implied that it would be a tall task for your area to hit climo....clearly stated that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If you actually think about what he said, its not a big leap of faith. He simply noted that the PV is nearing record strength in latter January, which it is, and that that is often correlated to a milder February. Not exactly a detail oriented long forecast, nor a way to drum up hits from a group of weather enthusiasts craving blizzards. Ugh....I need to do something else. You ENSO folks could also take a little pride away from a mild end/early spring. 'Less I'm mistaken, that tends to be the case with La Ninas. I do think the gradient rich hemisphere and faster flow that causes ... skews some of these longer term type telecons, but ... here's then thing, and there's no real away around this being that it's rooted in fact: The last 6 six years of Feb and Mar's have too often hosted big, and I mean approaching ludicrous warm week(s) event(s)... three of which were even 80+ prior to the Equixox, and barely out of the solar nadir of Mid or late February. They just slip below the care-radar, because some of those years also featured decent winter storms after then fact as blue bombies..etc. But those warm ups have happened regardless of ENSO states ... and they were alarming. When we are enjoying 79.4 F at 4:30 pm driving home from work on February 20th, we don't think of that as a "bad" but it's like +34 ... Sorry babbling .. .my point is, those don't appear to be driven by ENSO ... but rather, just seem to be happening with greater frequency. Won't go into why - that elephant is what it is... But, since La Nina favors early mild runs anyway, I wonder what happens if/when the former background is occurring during an El Nina year that is actually attempting to look La Nina for a change... Just a wonder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: You ENSO folks could also take a little pride away from a mild end/early spring. 'Less I'm mistaken, that tends to be the case with La Ninas. I do think the gradient rich hemisphere and faster flow that causes ... skews some of these longer term type telecons, but ... here's then thing, and there's no real away around this being that it's rooted in fact: The last 6 six years of Feb and Mar's have too often hosted big, and I mean approaching ludicrous warm week(s) event(s)... three of which were even 80+ prior to the Equixox, and barely out of the solar nadir of Mid or late February. They just slip below the care-radar, because some of those years also featured decent winter storms after then fact as blue bombies..etc. But those warm ups have happened regardless of ENSO states ... and they were alarming. When we are enjoying 79.4 F at 4:30 pm driving home from work on February 20th, we don't think of that as a "bad" but it's like +34 ... Sorry babbling .. .my point is, those don't appear to be driven by ENSO ... but rather, just seem to be happening with greater frequency. Won't go into why - that elephant is what it is... But, since La Nina favors early mild runs anyway, I wonder what happens in the former background land on an El Nina year that is actually attempting to look La Nina for a change... Just a wonder. E QBO la nina seasons, especially ones biased east, actually have a propensity for big finishes, which we touched upon with the SSW aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: E QBO la nina seasons, especially ones biased east, actually have a propensity for big finishes, which we touched upon with the SSW aspect. Ah ..well, it'll be an interesting battle perhaps. My personal suspicion is that the warm event frequency increase is connected to the Planetary concerns ( to put it "mildly" hahaha)... The SSW needs to fire off sooner rather than later or I will be a very dull boy ... spring enthusiasts don't need that happening in mid February... or you can check out until June 10 with packinmg pellet virga flurry days in May 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Hopefully next year is a modoki el nino....a fifth consecutive significantly subpar season here would be unprecedented dating back to at least 1956. I am not sure what in the actual fu*# Scott is looking for in terms of regression, but this several year stretch of mine absolutely epitomizes the 1980s. Granted, I am sure its more localized, but it still counts....because if it doesn't, and I need to go through this for another half decade, I am going to beat someone senseless. What a nightmare- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 43.6, decent day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Ah ..well, it'll be an interesting battle perhaps. My personal suspicion is that the warm event frequency increase is connected to the Planetary concerns ( to put it "mildly" hahaha)... The SSW needs to fire off sooner rather than later or I will be a very dull boy ... spring enthusiasts don't need that happening in mid February... or you can check out until June 10 with packet pellet virga flurry days in May Yes, independent of any stratospheric stuff, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Gonn have to watch that 1/25-26 deal. Euro/GEM/Ukie all have something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The Mighty Storms of New England I looked at the table of contents a few weeks aga and I wasn't all that impressed. I decided not to order the book. An interesting book(although dated, published in the 40's) is Great Storms and Shipwrecks of New England. Other books: Historic storms of New England Early American Winters Volumes 1 and 2 Not New England related but great reads All Hell Broke Loose...it's about the Armistice Day blizzard of 1940 Such a Cold Sky....it's about the weather of the Michigan Upper Peninsula... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gonn have to watch that 1/25-26 deal. Euro/GEM/Ukie all have something. And that's not really kicking the can. 1/24-1/26 was always a period of interest. And again a few days later, so we'll see but still some bullets in the chamber. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: And that's not really kicking the can. 1/24-1/26 was always a period of interest. And again a few days later, so we'll see but still some bullets in the chamber. Well we lost the 1/22-24 dual deal...both of those will fail. But the 1/25-26 clipper/redeveloper is looking alive and well. Some of the guidance including the Euro gets southern stream involved too which will add to some of the model chaos, but I think there's a legit chance of a good event even without the southern stream. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Gonn have to watch that 1/25-26 deal. Euro/GEM/Ukie all have something. Yeah agreed... wrote a bit about that a couple pgs back .. interesting stream interaction could evolve there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 41 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I looked at the table of contents a few weeks aga and I wasn't all that impressed. I decided not to order the book. An interesting book(although dated, published in the 40's) is Great Storms and Shipwrecks of New England. Other books: Historic storms of New England Early American Winters Volumes 1 and 2 Not New England related but great reads All Hell Broke Loose...it's about the Armistice Day blizzard of 1940 Such a Cold Sky....it's about the weather of the Michigan Upper Peninsula... If I may add another, “Sudden Sea The Great Hurricane of 1938” is very good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 48 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I looked at the table of contents a few weeks aga and I wasn't all that impressed. I decided not to order the book. An interesting book(although dated, published in the 40's) is Great Storms and Shipwrecks of New England. Other books: Historic storms of New England Early American Winters Volumes 1 and 2 Not New England related but great reads All Hell Broke Loose...it's about the Armistice Day blizzard of 1940 Such a Cold Sky....it's about the weather of the Michigan Upper Peninsula... It's a decent read. Good blend of meteorology and local accounts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Nature is just saving up her rage for an busy SNE tropical cyclone season. Believing that helps get me thru the doldrums anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 54 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: It's a decent read. Good blend of meteorology and local accounts. This is a good winter to compile a nice reading list. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 54 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Nature is just saving up her rage for an busy SNE tropical cyclone season. Believing that helps get me thru the doldrums anyway I honestly look at these past several years as me paying the piper, so to speak...I know scooter jokes about it, but it gets me through thinking that I'm making deposits into the weather karma bank after bending over 4 years running. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I honestly look at these past several years as me paying the piper, so to speak...I know scooter jokes about it, but it gets me through thinking that I'm making deposits into the weather karma bank after bending over 4 years running. Another area sucking is Plymouth down to the Cape and over on Cape Anne. Not sure if you noticed, but there winter has been meh last 4 seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Another area sucking is Plymouth down to the Cape and over on Cape Anne. Not sure if you noticed, but there winter has been meh last 4 seasons. I Knew Cape Anne because of nor easter....but I guess I consider it climo for the cape to get porked lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Had a fun time watching the temp fall from CON to home this afternoon. CON 44° exit 16 45° exit 17 44° exit 18 40° exit 19 30° home 26.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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