40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That outlook will change in a couple days too…they’re all trying for hits on their sites. He is the chief met in a major Boston market and just published a popular book, I think he's good in that respect. May just be that he feels this winter blows. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: He is the chief met in a major Boston market and just published a popular book, I think he's good in that respect. May just be that he feels this winter blows. That doesn’t make him a fortune teller either. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: They doesn’t make him a fortune teller either. No, but it makes it unlikely that he is simply "trying for hits", which is what you implied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, but it makes it unlikely that he is simply "fishing for hits", which is what you implied. Fair enough. He's pretty legit. But I still believe that they’re all searching for hits…it drives their business..period. 3 plus weeks from now is a guess for the very most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 19, 2022 Author Share Posted January 19, 2022 News of the pattern turning bad soon is the best news I’ve heard all week! Bring it! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That outlook will change in a couple days too…they’re all trying for hits on their sites. I highly doubt Fisher is looking for page hits. For the most part Fisher isn't a hypemaster. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Fair enough. He's pretty legit. But I still believe that they’re all searching for hits…it drives their business..period. 3 plus weeks from now is a guess for the very most part. If you actually think about what he said, its not a big leap of faith. He simply noted that the PV is nearing record strength in latter January, which it is, and that that is often correlated to a milder February. Not exactly a detail oriented long forecast, nor a way to drum up hits from a group of weather enthusiasts craving blizzards. Ugh....I need to do something else. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He is the chief met in a major Boston market and just published a popular book, I think he's good in that respect. May just be that he feels this winter blows. I do get the sense that he feels the winter has been awful (and not in a good way). The TV broadcast METS appear to be bored out of their minds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I highly doubt Fisher is looking for page hits. For the most part Fisher isn't a hypemaster. To the contrary, he is one of the few mets that I do not even believe is a snow hound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If you actually think about what he said, its not a big leap of faith. He simply noted that the PV is nearing record strength in latter January, which it is, and that that is often correlated to a milder February. Not exactly a detail oriented long forecast, nor a way to drum up hits from a group of weather enthusiasts craving blizzards. Ugh....I need to do something else. But that also doesn’t necessarily mean we have to cram some winter into the next two weeks, or we toast. That’s the somewhat misleading part imo. But hey, you can believe him completely. I’m choosing not to. It’s all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: To the contrary, he is one of the few mets that I do not even believe is a snow hound. I do think of him as more of a fan of warm/hot weather than a fan of winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If you actually think about what he said, its not a big leap of faith. He simply noted that the PV is nearing record strength in latter January, which it is, and that that is often correlated to a milder February. Not exactly a detail oriented long forecast, nor a way to drum up hits from a group of weather enthusiasts craving blizzards. Ugh....I need to do something else. Let’s will the month end superstorm to produce in OBY’s, then Feb thaw out and give rise to the dew and install bickering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: News of the pattern turning bad soon is the best news I’ve heard all week! Bring it! We've been waiting for a month for epicosity pattern to lock in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: But that also doesn’t necessarily mean we have to cram some winter into the next two weeks, or we toast. That’s the somewhat misleading part imo. But hey, you can believe him completely. I’m choosing not to. It’s all good. Not what I said....stop putting words into my mouth. We are getting to the point at which many of us ARE going to need to cram some winter into a short period in order to even threaten climo...that is simply fact. And a very strong PV makes that more difficult to do....true, or false? Impossible, no. However, I do not like my chances of maintaining the great PAC that we have had throughout January for very long into February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I do think of him as more of a fan of warm/hot weather than a fan of winter weather. Agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: But that also doesn’t necessarily mean we have to cram some winter into the next two weeks, or we toast. That’s the somewhat misleading part imo. But hey, you can believe him completely. I’m choosing not to. It’s all good. SNE better start cramming some winter weather into the next 2 weeks because after then the time to do so becomes shorter and shorter with each passing day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 This is out of my wheelhouse, but do you still see a PV split/displacement happening late Feb @40/70 Benchmark? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I get that central CT has one okay, but most have not....most not as dire as my spot, but worse than central CT, nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is out of my wheelhouse, but do you still see a PV split/displacement happening late Feb @40/70 Benchmark? My call was for late Jan/first half of Feb, but that maybe in trouble. I haven't looked at much TBH....tuning out for a bit. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not what I said....stop putting words into my mouth. We are getting to the point at which many of us ARE going to need to cram some winter into a short period in order to even threaten climo...that is simply fact. And a very strong PV makes that more difficult to do....true, or false? Impossible, no. However, I do not like my chances of maintaining the great PAC that we have had throughout January very long into February. Agree..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 I'm honestly not sure what to expect in February....model guidance still wants to have a monster Bering Strait ridge....which is NOT a warm pattern overall for us. But if the PNA goes negative enough, we could end up with the SE ridge getting us too much like it did in December....but part of me thinks that's pretty unlikely as that was an extreme -PNA that is unlikely to persist that long again. Typically those only last a few days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I'm honestly not sure what to expect in February....model guidance still wants to have a monster Bering Strait ridge....which is NOT a warm pattern overall for us. But if the PNA goes negative enough, we could end up with the SE ridge getting us too much like it did in December....but part of me thinks that's pretty unlikely as that was an extreme -PNA that is unlikely to persist that long again. Typically those only last a few days. I agree.....no way the RNA will be as prohibitive. I do not think Feb is a lost cause. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Not what I said....stop putting words into my mouth. We are getting to the point at which many of us ARE going to need to cram some winter into a short period in order to even threaten climo...that is simply fact. And a very strong PV makes that more difficult to do....true, or false? Impossible, no. However, I do not like my chances of maintaining the great PAC that we have had throughout January for very long into February. It’s not worth engaging with the everything is awesome crowd. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Seems like there are chances in the 26th-29th timeframe. Canadian at 12z has some fun with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s not worth engaging with the everything is awesome crowd. If this is awesome I'd hate to think of what their idea of SUCK is lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 8 minutes ago, GCWarrior said: Seems like there are chances in the 26th-29th timeframe. Canadian at 12z has some fun with the clipper. Ukie likes that clipper too for a redeveloper situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 Here's another one for Ray this time 1980: I want to jump with you.......offf the Tooobbbiiiiiinnnnnnn 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 22 minutes ago, GCWarrior said: Seems like there are chances in the 26th-29th timeframe. Canadian at 12z has some fun with the clipper. Yeah GEM brought back the 26th, while the gfs and gefs individual members are mostly pretty lame for that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 55 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: That outlook will change in a couple days too…they’re all trying for hits on their sites. let's be real, most want long-term credibility over clickbait hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 19, 2022 Share Posted January 19, 2022 29 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: SNE better start cramming some winter weather into the next 2 weeks because after then the time to do so becomes shorter and shorter with each passing day. Really? Cuz February is the snowiest month..so I respectfully disagree with you on that one. Just speaking for my location, we are fine here..very easy to reach normal snowfall, with two weeks of January left, and all of February (the snowiest month) to go. But I’m speaking for here. Just because some of us aren’t locked into the doom and gloom that others are, doesn’t make us wrong either. I completely understand, it could all go south and we rat. That can happen. However, I’m choosing not to believe that currently, with what I see presented before me at this time. I realize that others are not in as good of shape, and can understand the frustration completely. When we had to listen how great feb 2015 was out east..it wasn’t all that spectacular over here(still good), but no record breaker... not by a long shot. So I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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