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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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Saying this in the spirit of commiseration but heh, at least in 2012 it was so bad it actually got good because we were handed so many weekends in January and February 56 ...60 F and could do stuff outside.  Not all of them, no. But we were doing disk golf in cargo shorts and light sweatshirts on a lot of those Saturday's that year.

This?   can't do that.  It's just dog shit.  It's really rather remarkable just how bad this is. 

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Put another way ... I suspect most would agree, if we can't get even so much as a reach-around redemption, we'd rather it be a 70 F climate change freak show the whole way, and green up in mid February...with thunderstorms and beach weather by March.  Really just make it "the year without a winter" and stop f'in around with it.   But nope - this has been an eerie finding more reasons to be worse. LOL

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8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Saying this in the spirit of commiseration but heh, at least in 2012 it was so bad it actually got good because we were handed so many weekends in January and February 56 ...60 F and could do stuff outside.  Not all of them, no. But we were doing disk golf in cargo shorts and light sweatshirts on a lot of those Saturday's that year.

This?   can't do that.  It's just dog shit.  It's really rather remarkable just how bad this is. 

This is what I was getting at in a since deleted post....the WORST pattern is a coolish regime fraught with deconstructive interference, like this. I woud take 2019-2020, or 2011-2012 over this.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This is what I was getting at in a since deleted post....the WORST pattern is a coolish regime fraught with deconstructive interference, like this. I woud take 2019-2020, or 2011-2012 over this.

I think my futility season of 1978-1979 was one of these.

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It's amazing to watch the emotional response(s) on the run to run model output. Just my 2 cents, forget about the OP and follow the ENS. The pattern will flip the question is "when" and for "how long" ? Winter could and probably will be determined by a stretch of 2 or 3 weeks throw in a KU during that timeframe and everyone is satisfied. 
Living in the northern clims atleast most of you have a chance of experiencing snow, below zero temps, admittedly what else is there to live for...LOL. Just hang in there cause you get what you get it's not controlled and it will change. A volitile, unpredictable atmosphere with an extreme event not out of the realm of the possible       

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15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have no idea why you break his balls over falling six wins shy of a WS title when they weren't even supposed to contend...you act as if they underachieved.

 It makes no sense.

Because having the mantra of coming within 6 wins of a WS title is a loser's mantra. They were actually closer to not making the playoffs than they were of winning a WS title.

Prior to the 20-21  season the  C's had the mantra of "we've lost in the conference finals 3 out of the last 4 seasons".....that type of thinking that makes losing an accomplishment infests a team. ....re: check current state of the C's....

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7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Because having the mantra of coming within 6 wins of a WS title is a loser's mantra. They were actually closer to not making the playoffs than they were of winning a WS title.

Prior to the 20-21  season the  C's had the mantra of "we've lost in the conference finals 3 out of the last 4 seasons".....that type of thinking that makes losing an accomplishment infests a team. ....re: check current state of the C's....

I think your take is tone deaf. The Red Sox have won 4 titles in the past 17 years, and are ahead of schedule in a rebuild coming off an off season in which no one gave them a chance in hell. I would have said the same thing he did. Claiming that they were closer to missing the PS than winning a WS is dumb because they did make the post season. Celtics are a different story...they have a young core that has evolved into perennial underachievers and don't have much room for upward mobility as a team. The Red Sox can get any star they want if they pay up, the Cs can not.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think your take is tone deaf. The Red Sox have won 4 titles in the past 17 years, and are ahead of schedule in a rebuild coming off an off season in which no one gave them a chance in hell. I would have said the same thing he did. Claiming that they were closer to missing the PS than winning a WS is dumb because they did make the post season. Celtics are a different story...they have a young core that has evolved into perennial underachievers and don't have much room for upward mobility as a team. The Red Sox can get any star they want if they pay up, the Cs can not.

well like every other topic we are going to have to agree to disagree.  

BTW the last major free agent signing was nearly 4 years ago. 

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

That cutter after New Years is starting to look uglier here now. Hope it fizzles like the others have so far.

Euro is going full on Rainer into southern Canada. But where you are, I’d definitely still watch it for a colder solution in the next few days. We’re prob toast down here. 

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9 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Because having the mantra of coming within 6 wins of a WS title is a loser's mantra. They were actually closer to not making the playoffs than they were of winning a WS title.

Prior to the 20-21  season the  C's had the mantra of "we've lost in the conference finals 3 out of the last 4 seasons".....that type of thinking that makes losing an accomplishment infests a team. ....re: check current state of the C's....

Despite the NBA being compromised by the run and gun bombs away era, I still feel like the key to a championship, is being able to play beast mode in the paint and the Celtics have just not had that in a while.   No anchor inside = no Finals.

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I had posted this in the other Dec thread but ... seems this philosophy is needed in here - it's a perspective op ed

Sometimes winter biased patterns will sea-saw ... 

Patterns come and go, the transient ones... But there are those 'footed' types, that appear to be the return, or base-line, after those either transient looks either constructively or destructively played out over top. 

The typical gestation time of those returning base-line pattern is seldom longer than 45 days ... Rarely, you can get 90 day persistence but that seldom occurs - I don't think I've ever seen that, personal.  

Case in point, the winter of 1995-1996, a very good example of the above playing out. There were three patterns that very coherently characterized that long winter. The first was early November through middle January. It was a neutral PNA in a slower flow, while pulsing -NAOs that favored the western limb of the domain.  Sometimes there was more of a physical block, but other times ... trough/storm routing just seemed to move as though the block were still there - that's the non-linearity of the Pacific R-wave forcing, ...which officially checks out the reader - LOL.  Anyway, it fit right into the 45 day model really...

Then there was a break, a hUge thaw that came with it.  Something triggered an impressive whole-scale hemispheric/R-wave repositioning event.  I recall the Pacific from Japan all the way around the globe reconstructed - this forced retrograding W ( or progressing E... six'o dozen) of the persistent cold over eastern N/A.  but it ony lasted 2 to 3 weeks, a time in which we saw striking reversal of winter fortune, with some big snows and cold retrograding back to the NP to western Great Lakes, while back east flipped from deep cold and prolific snow fall anomalies, to staggering warmth.  It was a short gestation however. Not sure what happened to end it, but it proved to be more of an interlude pattern.

What set back in really wasn't the same as the Nov-Jan pattern; in other words, it did not appear to merely return - least not per what I remember of the behavior.  Nevertheless, and much to the joyous exhalation of the enduring winter weather enthusiasts, cold and snow returned, and the new paradigm lasted into mid April. I've had conversations with other Meteorologist, what would have been of that year, if that mid interlude did not take place.  What if the three deep cutters just did what all others did.  That one would have blown 2015 out of the water, ... because it was a continental -scaled event anomaly.  2015 was more local to New England.  Not a 90-day variation.

Two 45-day patterns, interceded with one that may have actually ( interestingly ...) been more statistically likely to be the case given to the weak-ish cool ENSO going on during an era when ENSO's meant shit ( half kiddin).  Not to start a causality squabble, but I do wonder if what we are seeing so far this year could be La Nina forcing that is constructively interfering with EAMT tendencies - together that's getting the hemisphere 'stuck' in a sense... It's all speculation of course... but I know that this pattern persistence has "over-performed" relative to ENSO alone. Something is giving it a kick-back.

Anyway, we've been pummeled with highly realized -PNA negative interference pattern over eastern N/A mid latitudes, and it has lasted over a month.  I'm personally interested in how the next 10 days start behaving, as to whether these gestation lengths get tested.

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Despite the NBA being compromised by the run and gun bombs away era, I still feel like the key to a championship, is being able to play beast mode in the paint and the Celtics have just not had that in a while.   No anchor inside = no Finals.

Part of it is that the NBA is so cliquey.....and the super stars only conglomerate to form their circle jerk teams in certain cities.

Good luck in that landscape if you aren't a destination.

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2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Despite the NBA being compromised by the run and gun bombs away era, I still feel like the key to a championship, is being able to play beast mode in the paint and the Celtics have just not had that in a while.   No anchor inside = no Finals.

Name the center(s) on the Warriors championship teams....and don't look the names up..The Wariiors had terrific perimeter players. The Bucks did not have a top tier center, The Raptors did not have a top tier center. 

The C's fail in part because the players are more interested in their own personal stats than winning a championship.  

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