MJO812 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 42 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: 00z EPS 6z eps is flatter but that's okay 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Gfs focuses on another wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6z eps is flatter but that's okay Ah, it’s good to be back to the whiff zone again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: Ah, it’s good to be back to the whiff zone again. Want to switch areas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 6z eps is flatter but that's okay EPS only goes out to 144 at 06z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS only goes out to 144 at 06z Started a thread for that time frame. Why the hell not lol. Let's see if I get my Juju back. Let's do this. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Want to switch areas ? No, never. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: No, never. Stop complaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs focuses on another wave This makes me think the synoptic will want to bring it north. That's all I focus on at this point. The 22nd looks like it wants to stay south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 30 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Started a thread for that time frame. Why the hell not lol. Let's see if I get my Juju back. Let's do this. I like it. Let's be bold. The only thing to fear is fear itself. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 10 hours ago, qg_omega said: Winds have been an issue for the larger bodies, tonight should help but ice still below normal across all of the northeast what is normal ice this time of year? link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GCWarrior Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Another Miller A? People are going to get upset! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 The Arctic blast failed to get me below zero as I finished with a low of 2.1 this morning, but what a walk along the Connecticut River. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 11 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Been on that since October. Between now and about Feb 14. Between Jan 21 and Feb 14 was my exact timetable. Then you'll probably do well there... if this (presentation) isn't a lark. I've seen this happen before where the American cluster starts 'flashing' in warm intervals above the 50 hPa sigma level ( ..where they first materialize when real..), only to have them just not take place. ...plus, if it is an SSW that is going to be real and meaningful to present context, it ill will need to actually be a down-welling event, which cannot be ascertained at this very early detection... But Twitter personalities will certainly use it to poke their hornet nest constituency before making that determination, no doubt! ugh But, the 5 and 10 hPa sigma absolutely explode with very high standard deviation warm intrusion, over at the strat-trop monitoring division of CPC. ( https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/ ) ...I like to use temperature detection as a first look.. But, that's clearly an intrusion event ( antecedent larger scaled planetary wave decay delivering thermal payload ..). The quickness in emergence, and the geometric morphology immediately ensuing, evinces that... And, although there was some excited solar activity since autumn, ...the longer term budget is still very much in a deep minimum, so ozone populations is probably high (enough). Well hell...okay, just looked and it does appear there are modest positive anomalies trapped within the mean PV aoa 100 hPa (ppm). ... one can see those at the same source ... Anyway, the QBO was entering a favorable late summer --> autumn negative phase, which is somewhat correlative with these warming stratosphere events, so... obviously you must be aware of that.. heh. We'll see. It fits. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rimetree Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Didn't think we'd get below 0 but made it to -1F. Torching up to 13F now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 43 minutes ago, GCWarrior said: Another Miller A? People are going to get upset! Miller As help the Litchfield County Berks and Vermont areas catch up in the snow category. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 On another note....I had my best solar production day since November, yesterday. It was also my highest instantaneous production rate since then as well....so even before the cars start to feel warm in the sun, my panels are telling me times are changing already, LOL.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 I would thread for that Jan 21 thru 25th period, buuuut ... There are problems that I do not feel brave enough to go ahead with a thread, until I see another couple of cycles ( minimum..) to hopefully offer clarity. I suppose if the title of said thread is, "Watching the 20th - 25th, heightened potential for eastern U.S. " ...and then onward, it only discusses the frame-up from that black-box perspective, okay. We've been onto the 20-25th interval for days, yup. So some operational versions decided to go ahead last night, and formally turn on the d-drip within that time frame. For the record, the GGEM has been toying with this for several cycles, actually. Now with the Euro joining ( ...0z EPS trend notwithstanding um... 972 mb integrating polar-arctic air mass in CCB is almost scary ha!) they focus on the 22nd. Firstly, the previous GGEM was focusing the 23/24th, and is now 22/23... Meanwhile, the Euro is 23rd, by virtue of the fact that it's racing a cyclone past again; so if there is a windy white Euro dawn on the 23rd, the sun set may be visible that afternoon. Said previous 23-24th GGEM solutions were slower moving system characters, that appeared more keyed into a pattern morphology/H.A., implicating a longer duration event. But now this move toward a more 22/23rd Euro event is technically a continuity break. What's to be expected at D7+ Meanwhile, the GFS has neither the 22nd ...nor the 24th. It has vestiges of both, but neither has enough might to overcome the other, so yet again ...mm hm, negative interference is present in the 00z. The 06z has attempted to correct for the latter 24th event. The individual 00z GEF members are about split in which dates to emphasize. Putting all this together ... it seems we are about 50/50 by concept and synoptic recognition/ correction vectoring toward either the 22nd, or 24th... or .. if we want to be fair... it's more like 40/40/20, with the 20 being negative interference limiting. The numerical equivalent of the PNA shows a non-modulating positive regime through D10... I find that interesting, because every model and ens mean there is has a steep NW flow entering the NP leading the time span in question, which then looks to get a goose from some additional western ridge amplitude around D8... I'd like to see a 'hill' in the curve out there. Yesterday, there was... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: Started a thread for that time frame. Why the hell not lol. Let's see if I get my Juju back. Let's do this. Good man! Too much weenie superstition about not starting threads in here... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 hour ago, weathafella said: Good man! Too much weenie superstition about not starting threads in here... Yea, I wouldn't have myself is all. Nit a big deal and seems to warrant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 GFS already into February! Love how fast this winter is moving along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: GFS already into February! Love how fast this winter is moving along. You enjoy watching life fly by? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Just now, Dan76 said: You enjoy watching life fly by? winter, sure. who doesn't? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drstuess Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Had a clean register of the volcano Shockwave westward propagation ( coming around the earth) on the weather station last night around midnight. Pretty cool.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 May have to watch for wave along the front Wed night/early Thu. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, drstuess said: Had a clean register of the volcano Shockwave westward propagation ( coming around the earth) on the weather station last night around midnight. Pretty cool. Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Same here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: May have to watch for wave along the front Wed night/early Thu. This or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 23 minutes ago, dendrite said: Same here. Ooh I have to check Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, JC-CT said: This or bust no idea what we even got with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted January 16, 2022 Share Posted January 16, 2022 Found the pressure wave on mine as well. Never thought to look until I read this thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now