Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
 Share

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably won't avoid the torch. That's the cutter many have been referencing. 

If it changes things up, then I welcome it. Anything is better than a coolish pattern laden with desonctructive interference. Its the absolute worst and I would rather an all out torch.

  • Like 1
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, that is what killed us....even if it had reached between -1 and -2 nadir, we probably would have seen significant snow with that NAO block.

Just as an aside: the PNA domain is truly enormous. 

In fact, it probably in some statistical theory could be considered too big to be entirely practical.  It encompasses some 1/4 of the geographic area of the planet to more or less hyperbole.  

That pragmatics of it comes into question when looking historically ... there have been notable storm episodes in -3 PNA's.   This year?  Is not one of those - so far. It is what it is.

There are other factors - HC ain't helping...sorry to say, because laying a ridge tendency over a lower latitude Walker boundary that is tending to be N of the previous 'Millennial' climate signal, is inherently a constructive feed-back between the two.   It may not express as huge heights extending clear to ORD-BUF-PWM, but when not ... we're trading tall tropospauses for increased wind velocities.  Both represent the same energy in the budget.  When the gradient relaxes, the rest state is a modest positive anomaly..etc, if perhaps not demonstrative - subtle variances have bigger impacts in that sense.  That's how the HC shit works.

I'm digressing.. I was just going to point out that with a huge PNA domain, it is possible to have it's west or east domain region more + or -, and given to which, that may pull the whole field up or down.  If the west part of the domain is hugely negative, but the east aspect is modestly positive, we may be favored for storminess in that situation despite an overall -3 PNA... and vice versa.  

I'm not sure how it applies to now as an argument - I don't think it is.  I think with the west biased -WPO/EPO thing that we collectively may have though 12 days ago would result better, that is sort of indicative of actually helping the -PNA expression.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This pattern has certainly been junk, but the snow removal personnel are loving it, especially those that charge by the "storm".  Even 1" of snow needs to be cleared from driveways and walkways else it will simply turn to ice.  We do seem to potentially get a bit of melting today, but I was expecting much more sun (which hasn't yet materialized).  

The teleconnections and jet stream alignment just don't seem to be there this year.  It's curious because our best "Nor'Easter" actually happened back in November, but we obviously didn't have the airmass to support it, but we were all hopeful that it would have translated into winter.  

Something just feels off about this winter....and the large swings in temp gradients are typically fertile breeding grounds for storms or to "refresh/reload" the atmosphere, but we really haven't even seen that as we seem to be hovering in a daily max range of 3-7 degrees.  That won't get the job done.  A few "torch" events will likely generate some instability and pattern uncertainty that I think is a bit necessary now?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Well, I guess it's time to write off this winter. It's over. Things are not going to change. Whenever I try to stay positive I just get stomped on. I do not wear Rose Colored Glasses amd I'm not an idiot. Weather's been a hobby of mine for my entire life. I don't claim to know everything, but it seems like a lot of you and here are meteorologists and professionals ( or at least act that way ), and there are select few that at  super cocky and think they know it all. So with that said, we'll look forward to next winter. Staying on here doesn't seem to be doing any wonders since Winter is over. Does that about sum it up?

Good melt.  See you for 18z.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Yeah the ground didn't even really freeze here yet. The temperatures have been up and down way too much. I think I might just to put a fork in this winter. Things were finally looking so much better yesterday with signs of a positive PNA. Now everything seems to be pushing back a lot. 

Nothing changed. Not sure what you are talking about.

  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing changed. Not sure what you are talking about.

Well the GEFS ensembles were showing the cold coming in around the 8th of January now its moving it until at least the 12th of January. THE GEPS has slowed down the advancing of Arctic air as well on it's ensembles. I smell a big ratter. 

 

(2/2) While the opportunity for cold weather remains during the first half of Jan in particular we are closing in on the key period for winter & it doesn't look good - mentioned this the other wk but a falling AAM profile coupled with a strong vortex = +NAO outlook for mid-winter

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Well the GEFS ensembles were showing the cold coming in around the 8th of January now its moving it until at least the 12th of January. THE GEPS has slowed down the advancing of Arctic air as well on it's ensembles. I smell a big ratter. 

They had a cutter too. And honestly I don't even look at the GEPS.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

I think Chaim "Six Wins" Bloom said that same about Franchy Cordero....

I have no idea why you break his balls over falling six wins shy of a WS title when they weren't even supposed to contend...you act as if they underachieved.

 It makes no sense.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...