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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That low level arctic air is just about to start being advected in when it’s brushing the cape. Even if it came NW it’d probably be a race with precip getting shutoff/virga. 

If the heavier precip actually makes it this far, that might speed up the changeover process. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Doubt it comes much more west...there isn't much room in the flow to shift that west.

Maybe even if the low is se there is a way to get more precip back this way, if the trough goes negatively tilted and the low becomes massive, like March 2013. Wasn’t that low like 500 miles se of the benchmark?

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Just now, George001 said:

Maybe even if the low is se there is a way to get more precip back this way, if the trough goes negatively tilted and the low becomes massive, like March 2013. Wasn’t that low like 500 miles se of the benchmark?

looks like a bunch of dry air to the NW wont happen with this

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Just now, George001 said:

Maybe even if the low is se there is a way to get more precip back this way, if the trough goes negatively tilted and the low becomes massive, like March 2013. Wasn’t that low like 500 miles se of the benchmark?

There was a shortwave that came in from the west, we don't have that

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I think our best shot at getting a decent amount of snow from Friday is the system shooting to the North slightly faster than currently modeled. The NW high, with accompanying arctic air, will prevent the system from being tugged West and will in the end force it to the east. One major difference from prior runs in the 3z Nam is the northern flank of precipitation and low pressure advances farther to the North before getting forced west. A stronger system would definitely help with this, so unlike Monday's system we want this to become stronger earlier. 

 

If the shifts that would need to happen (still somewhat unlikely as of now IMO) happen, this storm will catch the general public off-guard big time. Even cape cod weather forecasts have little to no precipitation in the forecast for Friday/Sat. 

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Can anyone explain what's going on with the pattern overall?  Maybe it's something I'm noticing just now that's more common, or maybe it's different, but when you zoom out and do the Northern Hemisphere or North Atlantic views on the models, all the waves are cutting west instead of going out to sea.  Is that just a bad orientation of the NAO causing that?  Just referencing the latest op runs 500mb view and you see every wave of low pressure just rotating north in the Davis Straight instead of out into the Atlantic... for almost the entire 240/384... it piqued my interest...

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Just now, leo2000 said:

I know many are mentioning how good of a pattern this is. But if it's a very good pattern for snow and cold we wouldn't be have cutters showing up periodically. 2014-2015 didn't have any cutters. All big coastal blizzard like snowstorms. 

2015 was a super anomaly. very silly to make that the benchmark for anything

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