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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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Wow...so I don't know if I've ever seen a GFS OP run be so far outside the spread of the ensembles at a day 5-7 lead. I guess there is what, 1 CRV runner on the 6z GEFS, and every other member is over Bermuda. Just odd. Just the general lack of spread is odd.

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54 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I like the 7am to 7pm stuff

I’m always a lil confused by that stuff. When I look at the point and click, or any of the 7 day extended etc….and it shows  for example: Mon: low 8/hi 18, Tue: low 6/hi 30,

I think of it as the low is the lowest temp right before sunrise, and then the hi temp is whatever it got to that afternoon before it starts to drop off as the sun goes down.  Maybe I’m looking at that incorrect? I don’t know. 
 

When these cheap hi’s occur at midnight and then it drops from there, that’s when those hi/lo’s can be confusing to me. 

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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Wow...so I don't know if I've ever seen a GFS OP run be so far outside the spread of the ensembles at a day 5-7 lead. I guess there is what, 1 CRV runner on the 6z GEFS, and every other member is over Bermuda. Just odd. Just the general lack of spread is odd.

Seems like the northern stream dominated nina is recking havoc on guidance in the mid range.

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50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Monday starting to look really good on EPS....even though 06z EPS only goes to 144, you can see that a lot of those would likely turn the corner based on H5.

 

 

Thread likely/pending ... for low confidence, *however* with such a high upside I feel monitoring is necessary..  May wait on the 12z ens.   I'll probably cut and paste content from this post and cobble some annotated charts

The problem is the excessive to the extent/ saturating the base-line with potential; a powder-keg merely capped by wave interference. 

I warned this yesterday ( and the day before...) that we are essentially playing with fair with so much volatility, that is by convenience of wave-space contention being preventative. Given just a modicum of breathing room in any modeling, and any one of these waves can become an equally handsome cyclone with very little excuse to do so.  

The 00z/06z oper. GFS opened the window and let the air in for the 17th

Note, this signal had the better appeal/timing "cadence" with the super synopsis going back three days, when it was the D9-11 ( day after that last snow event).. now is D6-8, and she's more than less coming back in the GEFs... Feel we are in the early stages ( like right at zygote but ensuing -) for the 17th emergence and that other non-GFS will probably show in the future.  The 00Z GGEM actually already did in principle, although it's stretching the x-corrdinate and that takes it too far E and doesn't allow the same eventual phasing of the 06z GFS solution ( using the latter as a paragon).

I would not have posted this post here if it were not for your mentioning the 06z EPS - which is thus a positive trend from 00z, and is likely also like the GGEM ...an early consensus. I was nodding when I saw your post. This would be a different storm than the last if it works out...

The 00z GEFs numerical telecons are flagging a +1 --> -1 --> 0 modulation in the NAO over the next 10 days, the range of which is rather ideal... because anything lower and it scoots seaward underneath/suppressed.  Where's earlier phases/Lakes cutters are not really in the cards at all with this.  Meanwhile, the PNA aspect is in a postive mode albeit modest ..but climbing through the same period.  These altogether do not represent a bad scaffolding... The NAO and the PNA are in a modest teleconnector covergence here.

24 of the 30 GEF members I saw have SE U.S. to west Atl cyclogenesis, 7 of which were rather deep and far enough W.  This is the cluster trying to jump back on board in my opinion.  

The flow over the deep S-SE is relaxed prior to the arrival of this western ridge associated with some sort of at least transient +PNAP exertion, an exertion/aspect that I wonder may be also emerging - i.e., more. 

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My favorite MLK day storm was 1994.  I was in S Royalton VT at the time.  We got 17 inches in short order.  Sadly during the heaviest part of the storm I walked across the village green and my keys fell out in the process.  It was snowing so hard that when I noticed about 10 minutes later that I could not even find my prints in the snow.  A friend found the keys in mid-May when the last of the snow piles melted.

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Just looking at this from my perspective and just really looking at it only just yesterday, I think its a really small chance that this one on friday will be close enough outside of maybe the extreme eastern areas to see anything inland, Monday-Tuesday, May end up different but these storms that are even outside of even 3 days out have to be taken with a grain of salt on the models.

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