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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Yeah but I recall one that was just kind of a moderate event but then you just kept snowing. and snowing. and snowing.

That's prob the one...you prob had like 6-10 in that storm while further north and east got smoked.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Oh jeez...that hting just hangs out over the arctic ocean...it never gets better sampled until after the Friday event is past.

I wonder if that could lead to a model bust, since it seems to impact the ridge, but never gets sampled before the event makes its closest approach....

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Oh jeez...that hting just hangs out over the arctic ocean...it never gets better sampled until after the Friday event is past.

Isn't it the shortwave that comes on shore in British Columbia around 0z Thursday that flattens the ridge?

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if that could lead to a model bust, since it seems to impact the ridge, but never gets sampled before the event makes its closest approach....

You'd think with all the cooks in the proverbial kitchen, uncertainty should be elevated.

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4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Seems like the mean trough has pushed a bit far east on EPS to be perfect for storms to ride up the coast or is that just me?

Feb 2015 was even farther east. I think that location would be fine. A ridge axis kissing the coast of western NAMR typically is not cold and dry. For a mean...I think axis works. 

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32 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Seems like this weekend is a bit of a stretch but man what a tasty pattern D10-D15.

We've had the pants tent response to long range ensemble mean maps multiple times now dating back 2 weeks. Ultimately day 10+ is likely to regress slightly towards climo as we move closer in time. But at least it's a good indication our favorable window won't be short lived. Heck this upcoming week's ensemble mean looks pretty promising. Wonder how that's gonna work out?

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow, anyone look at the GEPS for Friday? Looks best.....GEFS came a bit NW, as mentioned, and EPS went se a bit.

2/3 Ensemble suites improved at 12z.

That's a bit of a specious distinction, frankly.  It may seem so when looking at the previous run, but if you go back several, it's really been wandering around out there...  some cycles farther SE- E and SW event.  Spanning the last 4, there's really not much of a trend there.  But just the last 2 cycles may appeal so

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

That's a bit of a specious distinction, frankly.  It may seem so when looking at the previous run, but if you go back several, it's really been wandering around out there...  some cycles farther SE- E and SW event.  Spanning the last 4, there's really not much of a trend there. 

Just comparing to last run...I think trends from the immediately prior runs gain more value the closer we get.

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