CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: That was the scooter special, right? That was great. But IIRC, most everyone did well except maybe far srn areas and far western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The shortwave directly responsible for Friday comes onshore tomorrow night....I'm not sure if there is another piece you are asking about that is affecting the ridge? The image across the NW territories that the arrow is pointing at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Watch it give @TheGrauplera blizzard and flip the rest of us off. Runaway totally wrote it off.. so we’ve got that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: At some point, we gotta get smoked in this look, right? Man, That looks great @H5...................... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah there was a bunch of OES enhancement going on along the south shore in that one. I think Blue Hill ended up with like 27 or 28 inches in that storm. BOS had 22 or 23? I had 17.5" in that....obviously minus OES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: That was great. But IIRC, most everyone did well except maybe far srn areas and far western areas. Yeah but I recall one that was just kind of a moderate event but then you just kept snowing. and snowing. and snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The image across the NW territories that the arrow is pointing at. Oh jeez...that hting just hangs out over the arctic ocean...it never gets better sampled until after the Friday event is past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Yeah but I recall one that was just kind of a moderate event but then you just kept snowing. and snowing. and snowing. That's prob the one...you prob had like 6-10 in that storm while further north and east got smoked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Oh jeez...that hting just hangs out over the arctic ocean...it never gets better sampled until after the Friday event is past. I wonder if that could lead to a model bust, since it seems to impact the ridge, but never gets sampled before the event makes its closest approach.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Oh jeez...that hting just hangs out over the arctic ocean...it never gets better sampled until after the Friday event is past. Isn't it the shortwave that comes on shore in British Columbia around 0z Thursday that flattens the ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That's prob the one...you prob had like 6-10 in that storm while further north and east got smoked. That sounds right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wonder if that could lead to a model bust, since it seems to impact the ridge, but never gets sampled before the event makes its closest approach.... You'd think with all the cooks in the proverbial kitchen, uncertainty should be elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Lets see if we can get one of the next 3 thru. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man EPS went Ron Burgundy PT. Amazing look, keeps on getting better in the Pacific on all guidance.. One thing I noticed on today's EPS seems like the mean trough has pushed a bit far east on EPS to be perfect for storms to ride up the coast or is that just me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, dryslot said: Lets see if we can get one of the next 3 thru. Ray before the kicks are attempted: Ray after all the kicks whiff 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Wow, anyone look at the GEPS for Friday? Looks best.....GEFS came a bit NW, as mentioned, and EPS went se a bit. 2/3 Ensemble suites improved at 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Seems like the mean trough has pushed a bit far east on EPS to be perfect for storms to ride up the coast or is that just me? Feb 2015 was even farther east. I think that location would be fine. A ridge axis kissing the coast of western NAMR typically is not cold and dry. For a mean...I think axis works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Feb 2015 was even farther east. I think that location would be fine. A ridge axis kissing the coast of western NAMR typically is not cold and dry. For a mean...I think axis works. Ok good to hear, not great with remembering past patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 32 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Seems like this weekend is a bit of a stretch but man what a tasty pattern D10-D15. We've had the pants tent response to long range ensemble mean maps multiple times now dating back 2 weeks. Ultimately day 10+ is likely to regress slightly towards climo as we move closer in time. But at least it's a good indication our favorable window won't be short lived. Heck this upcoming week's ensemble mean looks pretty promising. Wonder how that's gonna work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow, anyone look at the GEPS for Friday? Its just SE of the BM.....GEFS came a bit NW, as mentioned, and EPS went se a bit. 2/3 Ensemble suites improved at 12z. Yes, I saw that, I think people as far east have you should have some hope for Friday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yes, I saw that, I think people as far east have you should have some hope for Friday.. About 3members retrograde inside the BM and just sit for like 12 hours before slowly drifting east. None did this at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow, anyone look at the GEPS for Friday? Looks best.....GEFS came a bit NW, as mentioned, and EPS went se a bit. 2/3 Ensemble suites improved at 12z. That's a bit of a specious distinction, frankly. It may seem so when looking at the previous run, but if you go back several, it's really been wandering around out there... some cycles farther SE- E and SW event. Spanning the last 4, there's really not much of a trend there. But just the last 2 cycles may appeal so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: That's a bit of a specious distinction, frankly. It may seem so when looking at the previous run, but if you go back several, it's really been wandering around out there... some cycles farther SE- E and SW event. Spanning the last 4, there's really not much of a trend there. Just comparing to last run...I think trends from the immediately prior runs gain more value the closer we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Ok good to hear, not great with remembering past patterns. Of course the caveat being if it happens as modeled lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Of course the caveat being if it happens as modeled lol. Ha yes of course, I like the recent consistency and general agreement on ensembles for the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Anyone see the 2nd analog for hour 108 via the CIPs analog site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, Chrisrotary12 said: Anyone see the 2nd analog for hour 108 via the CIPs analog site? 3rd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wow, anyone look at the GEPS for Friday? Looks best.....GEFS came a bit NW, as mentioned, and EPS went se a bit. 2/3 Ensemble suites improved at 12z. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Anyone see the 2nd analog for hour 108 via the CIPs analog site? 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: 3rd? I clicked over the Dakotas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: I clicked over the Dakotas. Ah, I clicked on the maritimes, but I'm guessing we are talking about the same thing CORRECTION: we are not...check out the one I'm seeing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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