HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think Steve said he was at average snowfall. I don't remember what he got friday but I would have figured he was ahead of average. Either way RT 2 corridor has some catching up to do, especially the further west you go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Sure, I think it's a long shot, but at least we have a pretty good sense of what would need to change and the fact that we are even discussing that those level of changes are even possible should be an indication that it could also just as easily (as that) trend faster and more progressive while the next on comes in delayed, and then there you go, the possibility of at least a decent event. Just seems like we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, that's all. Yea, in the end, I would be surprised if we make it to 1/20 with nothing to show for it....its tough for everything to get shunted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Holy crap, when closed MSLP contours occur east of the Cape at like hr 336 on a mean, you know that is good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Nah, I'm fine...he's just breaking balls, which is how to keep sane right now as a weenie. I apologize for the other night....I was beat and should have just let that go. Likewise. All good bro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man EPS went Ron Burgundy PT. At some point, we gotta get smoked in this look, right? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Man, it would be nice to get just a little more spacing between shortwaves in this flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Me after the EPS 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: You would have to think that the Monday deal not being allowed to gain much latitude would limit how much it could interfere with your follow up deal. Wait wait, I still think we are getting things mixed up...Monday is the 17th, that's the 168 hour prog I posted. That's the third wave, correct? Do you mean the "Sunday" deal? Part of the problem, like I just posted, is that the OP timing is just one of many possible timings being shown on the ensembles. The EPS is definitely centering around Monday, while the OP GFS shows Sunday and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, in the end, I would be surprised if we make it to 1/20 with nothing to show for it....its tough for everything to get shunted. Absolutely...we are due to congratulate Albany lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Holy crap, when closed MSLP contours occur east of the Cape at like hr 336 on a mean, you know that is good. Maybe we can do the 17 year anniversary repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: At some point, we gotta get smoked in this look, right? That is amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Maybe we can do the 17 year anniversary repeat. I'm in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Seems like this weekend is a bit of a stretch but man what a tasty pattern D10-D15. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Me after the EPS TBlizz will come out of the closet to put your clothes right back on. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: At some point, we gotta get smoked in this look, right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Wait wait, I still think we are getting things mixed up...Monday is the 17th, that's the 168 hour prog I posted. That's the third wave, correct? Do you mean the "Sunday" deal? Part of the problem, like I just posted, is that the OP timing is just one of many possible timings being shown on the ensembles. The EPS is definitely centering around Monday, while the OP GFS shows Sunday and Tuesday. Yea, my bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 At least the EPS has shifted Friday's event to the West... still need a few more shifts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I was about to go there...glad you did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Maybe we can do the 17 year anniversary repeat. I was torn between 2015 and 2005 for an analog...would have to look at both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Absolutely...we are due to congratulate Albany lol. Dude, at this point, I would give Albany a deformation zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, my bad. No worries, I'm just really starting to look at post Friday OP runs seriously so I am probably missing a level of understanding of the model evolution that others have. Like to me, it's "what weekend deal?" because the ensembles have been a dartboard at local bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 GEFs have, in essence, the same favorable look... Again, I've been hitting the 270-300 hr range therefrom ..etc. It's just not clear if a real event is in there, or that's just the larger scaffolding of the pattern passing through it's maximization. I've been looking at the ens PP means of the GEFs, they've also been off and on closing contours basically 240 - 330 for that matter. The numerical telecon of the PNA isn't hugely convincing but it is modestly positive. It would be better served ( confidence) if that would camel hump to go along with these graphics. That's been an interesting story that no one probably is even aware of unless they have a life like mine which is that the numerical equivalence of the graphics have not been aligning very well. The numerics/curves of the PNA should like more formidable given the graphics. I guess the only purpose for telling this is that less amazing events fit the numerical/EOF results; the graphics sell more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: At least the EPS has shifted Friday's event to the West... still need a few more shifts By Wednesday, folks will all be on board. That’s the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Will, when is that arctic SW that messes with the PNA ridge for Friday better sampled? Seems a pretty short lead to Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: The numerical telecon of the PNA isn't hugely convincing but it is modestly positive. It would be better served ( confidence) if that would camel hump to go along with these graphics. That's been an interesting story that no one probably is even aware of unless they have a life like mine which is that the numerical equivalence of the graphics have not been aligning very well. The numerics/curves of the PNA should like more formidable given the graphics. Actually, I noticed that yesterday, probably prompted by one of your posts. None of the teleconnections looked classically impressive, but I guess together they make the right soup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was torn between 2015 and 2005 for an analog...would have to look at both. There's some similarities 2005 and 2015 share....2015 was a little more amplified and also lasted longer. 2015 was basically that standing western ridge for 3-4 weeks....it did briefly break down and reload in the Feb 6-10 range but we got lucky while the rest of the CONUS torched and we had that weird overrunning event that lasted 3 days and culminated in a coastal redevelopment on the morning of Feb 9th. That's how you break records though....get lucky when everyone else is waiting for the reload. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: By Wednesday, folks will all be on board. That’s the event Watch it give @TheGrauplera blizzard and flip the rest of us off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: There's some similarities 2005 and 2015 share....2015 was a little more amplified and also lasted longer. 2015 was basically that standing western ridge for 3-4 weeks....it did briefly break down and reload in the Feb 6-10 range but we got lucky while the rest of the CONUS torched and we had that weird overrunning event that lasted 3 days and culminated in a coastal redevelopment on the morning of Feb 9th. That's how you break records though....get lucky when everyone else is waiting for the reload. That was the scooter special, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Will, when is that arctic SW that messes with the PNA ridge for Friday better sampled? Seems a pretty short lead to Friday. The shortwave directly responsible for Friday comes onshore tomorrow night....I'm not sure if there is another piece you are asking about that is affecting the ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: That was the scooter special, right? Yeah there was a bunch of OES enhancement going on along the south shore in that one. I think Blue Hill ended up with like 27 or 28 inches in that storm. BOS had 22 or 23? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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