40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, Whineminster said: It just snowed dude 9" of snow at mid season where I live is brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man Friday looks awesome to the east. You see that setup and shit, I would have thought it would come closer to the coast. Big deep negative trough etc. Can we get 150-200 miles in 96 hours? I think that's the best hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Whineminster said: It just snowed dude The fact that it's mostly gone after 3 days fits the pattern this winter. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 9" of snow at mid season where I live is brutal Maybe 5 inches below normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: The end of that Euro run looked interesting. Too bad it's in clown range. Clown range is probably going to look pretty good on a lot of OP runs going forward for the next week because the pattern out in that time range is pretty nice-looking and conductive to larger events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, qg_omega said: Maybe 5 inches below normal? Normal snowfall for ORH at this point is 23"....for his area, it is maybe a couple inches less. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Eps has alot of members way further north than the op for this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man Friday looks awesome to the east. You see that setup and shit, I would have thought it would come closer to the coast. Big deep negative trough etc. The reason I gave in my writeup is that just as the N stream energy begins to stream in, that N Stream SW way up over the igloos begins to compress the n edge of the PNA ridge, then the stream interaction stops and it goes out to sea. The ICON yesterday was an example of what happens if that ridging could still protrude up into AK. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The reason I gave in my writeup is that just as the N stream energy begins to stream in, that N Stream SW way up over the igloos begins to compress the n edge of the PNA ridge, then the stream interaction stops and it goes out to sea. The ICON yesterday was an example of what happens if that ridging could still protrude up into AK. How a Pattern can Potentially be too Active for Major Snows The ridge on the west coast dictates that the next series of disturbances approaching the east coast will be able to amplify into major storms, however, what makes this a very high stakes pattern is that there is not much space between each one. Thus if anything is "off" with respect to a given system's ability to produce a major snowfall on the east coast, then it may have a ripple effect in that it may only serve to interfere with subsequent storm threats, thereafter. The first such system is an amplifying ocean storm that will make its closes pass to the region on Friday. The current consensus strongly favors the western ridge not being quite amplified enough for this system to have a major impact on the region. This is in large part due to a northern stream disturbance compressing the northern portion of the ridge just enough to preclude a major strike from this system across region, as noted in the annotation above. However, a less likely scenario is that the ridge manages to protrude further into Alaska downstream from this disturbance. This would allow the system to amplify slightly more and since its exit would be blocked by a western atlantic ridge to the north, it could retrograde close enough to impact at least the eastern portion of southern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 That thing is up in the arctic right now, so maybe not sampled well if you want a beacon of hope...If that lobe of energy is further away and and/or weaker, that storm would hit IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 What’s the simulated radar from? The 12z EURO? For Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said: What’s the simulated radar from? The 12z EURO? For Friday? Ha I wish....06z ICON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Grasping at straws in mid-January. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Not sure I understand the confidence level in writing off this one...maybe I'm the weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Whineminster said: Grasping at straws in mid-January. Not good. Admittedly, yes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Time for you to move out that cold dry snow hole…. It's just been the pattern the past few years but if you drew an obtuse triangle, with it's points being Pittsfield, Albany and Keene we have been screwed in every direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Not sure I understand the confidence level in writing off this one...maybe I'm the weenie. I wouldn't write it off, but I would say I have low confidence in that system and on Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Not sure I understand the confidence level in writing off this one...maybe I'm the weenie. Yeah that is storm #3....that one is different than the weekend threat (1/15-16) that is seemingly DOA. I think that storm #3 for 1/17 (or 1/18 on some guidance) has a legit chance. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 The ensembles kind of smear the 1/15-16 and 1/17-18 threats together....so it almost looks like the same system on the ensemble mean but when you look at OP runs or individual members they are coming from different shortwaves. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: I wouldn't write it off, but I would say I have low confidence in that system and on Friday. Friday is getting close enough to talk about, but shouldn't "low confidence in a significant system" be the baseline for 5+ days out anyway? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, ORH_wxman said: The ensembles kind of smear the 1/15-16 and 1/17-18 threats together....so it almost looks like the same system on the ensemble mean but when you look at OP runs or individual members they are coming from different shortwaves. I see, thanks. So maybe put another way, I'm not sure why people are getting so hung up on the immediate shortwave after Friday having to be the one. The OP runs are going to be completely off on the timing at this range anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, JC-CT said: Friday is getting close enough to talk about, but shouldn't "low confidence in a significant system" be the baseline for 5+ days out anyway? Friday is worth watching...maybe Will can speak more to how much that SW I referenced is sampled right now, and when it may be over a less data sparse domain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 Oh well. Spring training in a month….oh wait. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, JC-CT said: Friday is getting close enough to talk about, but shouldn't "low confidence in a significant system" be the baseline for 5+ days out anyway? I misread the date, I thought that was 24 hrs earlier. Yes it should be. It does sound like some hear low confidence and reasons why it may not work, and assume we are writing it off. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Man EPS went Ron Burgundy PT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Whineminster said: Grasping at straws in mid-January. Not good. You are probably well below normal for this time of year, I would guess populated parts of CT and MA are ahead of their "average snowfall" to date so you will get no sympathy here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Here's a quick look at the 144 hour Euro....I marked the failed 1/15-16 threat with the green circle and the 1/17-18 threat is marked with the light blue "X".....they are different shortwaves....the reason I like the 1/17 threat better is kind of obvious on the eye test....it has more room to operate. The 1/15-16 shortwave is getting crunched by what's left of that ocean storm in the maritimes. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Friday is worth watching...maybe Will can speak more to how much that SW I referenced is sampled right now, and when it may be over a less sparse domain. Sure, I think it's a long shot, but at least we have a pretty good sense of what would need to change and the fact that we are even discussing that those level of changes are even possible should be an indication that it could also just as easily (as that) trend faster and more progressive while the next on comes in delayed, and then there you go, the possibility of at least a decent event. Just seems like we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, that's all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: You are probably well below normal for this time of year, I would guess populated parts of CT and MA are ahead of their "average snowfall" to date so you will get no sympathy here. I think Steve said he was at average snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's a quick look at the 144 hour Euro....I marked the failed 1/15-16 threat with the green circle and the 1/17-18 threat is marked with the light blue "X".....they are different shortwaves....the reason I like the 1/17 threat better is kind of obvious on the eye test....it has more room to operate. The 1/15-16 shortwave is getting crunched by what's left of that ocean storm in the maritimes. You would have to think that the Monday deal not being allowed to gain much latitude would limit how much it could interfere with your follow up deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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