40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 The longwave pattern is just off for us this season (aside from that 15 mile wide band, epic there)....one thing I have noticed all season...December and continues into January even during a new pattern, is that everything amplifies off shore and crushes the maratimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 57 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sniffed other weenies undies Well all righty then… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Man Friday is like James dream come true with like 3 S/W's playing in the flow. RIP man. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: Man Friday is like James dream come true with like 3 S/W's playing in the flow. RIP man. Wouldn't he have wanted it to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Monday gone too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Wouldn't he have wanted it to snow? Well yeah, but Jesus that is a hell of a look. Maritimes FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Well all righty then… For a light event . 1-3 or 2-4. That’s perfectly fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Well yeah, but Jesus that is a hell of a look. Maritimes FTW. I don't think he would have cared if at the end of it, you check the scoreboard and nothing changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't think he would have cared if at the end of it, you check the scoreboard and nothing changes. I guess my point is that he would get excited in certain setups, even if it was a low chance. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Sunday still looks lousy early on. S/W so positively tilted. I'm rooting for Friday to come in more amped....don't think the bahamas low is getting us, but the main PJ shortwave is actually half-decent and it could turn into something like an advisory event....that's what I'll be hoping for to tide us over until next week when the D8-9 threat looks better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Well yeah, but Jesus that is a hell of a look. Maritimes FTW. The old triple phaser, that ends winter for the northeast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm rooting for Friday to come in more amped....don't think the bahamas low is getting us, but the main PJ shortwave is actually half-decent and it could turn into something like an advisory event....that's what I'll be hoping for to tide us over until next week when the D8-9 threat looks better. You are deluding yourself according to some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Monday gone too. Yeah, as far as the operational Euro goes ... this run is one perpetual negative interference scheme, ...beginning 72 hours right out to D8... In fact, it's in the process of demolishing the D7/8 event I was ( personally..) keeping track of. The 12z GEFs also blurred/backed away from that vision quite a bit, too. Sooo ... I say we blame Ray? I say we start a troll session for his making the impertinent verbal jest about rollin' snake eyes only to come up in the end knee deep in a RNA that sends us into the 80s again in February - nice goin' LOL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm rooting for Friday to come in more amped....don't think the bahamas low is getting us, but the main PJ shortwave is actually half-decent and it could turn into something like an advisory event....that's what I'll be hoping for to tide us over until next week when the D8-9 threat looks better. I'm going back and forth on that. Part of me feels like that isn't going anywhere far enough away to bring Sunday back. I thought maybe Friday had a shot early on on this euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm rooting for Friday to come in more amped....don't think the bahamas low is getting us, but the main PJ shortwave is actually half-decent and it could turn into something like an advisory event....that's what I'll be hoping for to tide us over until next week when the D8-9 threat looks better. It all looks fine as is according to some...dog shit buried for as far as the eye can see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You are deluding yourself according to some Both systems are low probability, but since Friday isn't trending weaker/faster, it's going to muck up Sunday...so the hope is Friday comes in enough to give something. But the most likely scenario is both events whiff. But no time to sulk like a baby if that happens, because there are still a lot of bullets in the chamber....1/17-18 looks decent too. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The realistic hope is a phase change deal later in the month as the pattern breaks down. Negative things happen in life....deluding is just as harmful as being a debbie. 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Both systems are low probability, but since Friday isn't trending weaker/faster, it's going to muck up Sunday...so the hope is Friday comes in enough to give something. But the most likely scenario is both events whiff. But no time to sulk like a baby if that happens, because there are still a lot of bullets in the chamber....1/17-18 looks decent too. I don't understand what is unreasonable about my post above. You confirmed the first two are whiffs or at least nothing major......so we wait until later in the month before the pattern begins to break down. Stop me when I strayed from what you just said. Maybe we have time for one major system before the pattern begins to change, in addition to a potential phase changer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Anyone under the impression that Friday or Monday has a reasonable chance to be major is deluding themselves...that's just fact. Is what it is. Not saying winter is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It all looks fine as is according to some...dog shit buried for as far as the eye can see. Toes snapping...... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, as far as the operational Euro goes ... this run is one perpetual negative interference scheme, ...beginning 72 hours right out to D8... In fact, it's in the process of demolishing the D7/8 event I was ( personally..) keeping track of. The 12z GEFs also blurred/backed away from that vision quite a bit, too. Sooo ... I say we blame Ray? I say we start a troll session for his making the impertinent verbal jest about rollin' snake eyes only to come up in the end knee deep in a RNA that sends us into the 80s again in February - nice goin' LOL He’s been on a Wolf like hunt lately so tread carefully. Good things happen when we spike the ridge though but it’s too far east, go figure. Thems the breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't understand what is unreasonable about my post above. You confirmed the first two are whiffs or at least nothing major......so we wait until later in the month before the pattern begins to break down. Stop me when I strayed from what you just said. Maybe we have time for one major system before the pattern begins to change, in addition to a potential phase changer? It seemed reasonable. When is the pattern breaking down though? Maybe that's the difference in perception....your post implies we have maybe 12-14 days left? I dunno....that might be true, but it's not evident yet at least on the sub-LR guidance (like 15 days out). That guidance would imply we're not breaking down any time soon. At any rate, I'll start sharing the sentiment that we're running short on time if we make it past 1/20 with nothing imminent and a pattern change for the worse finally showing up. In the meantime, we have a very favorable PAC with a northern-stream dominated pattern setting up for the foreseeable future. That's typically what we want to see here for larger ticket events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anyone under the impression that Friday or Monday has a reasonable chance to be major is deluding themselves...that's just fact, IMO. Is what it is. Not saying winter is over. I've come to realize that since there is a 99.99% change nothing we say or think about upcoming weather in this forum will actually change the synopsis, I'd rather stick with delusional optimism than realistic pessimism. I get to ride the absurd wave of excitement leading to an event, coupled with (potentially) crushing disappointment. Much preferable to "meh" which life has too much of anyway. That being said, I'm cheering on a West shift >50 miles in the 18z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He’s been on a Wolf like hunt lately so tread carefully. Good things happen when we spike the ridge though but it’s too far east, go figure. Thems the breaks. Nah, I'm fine...he's just breaking balls, which is how to keep sane right now as a weenie. I apologize for the other night....I was beat and should have just let that go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It seemed reasonable. When is the pattern breaking down though? Maybe that's the difference in perception....your post implies we have maybe 12-14 days left? I dunno....that might be true, but it's not evident yet at least on the sub-LR guidance (like 15 days out). That guidance would imply we're not breaking down any time soon. At any rate, I'll start sharing the sentiment that we're running short on time if we make it past 1/20 with nothing imminent and a pattern change for the worse finally showing up. In the meantime, we have a very favorable PAC with a northern-stream dominated pattern setting up for the foreseeable future. That's typically what we want to see here for larger ticket events. No, that is very fair. My guess is that the pattern breaks down toward month's end, maybe last week. 9 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: I've come to realize that since there is a 99.99% change nothing we say or think about upcoming weather in this forum will actually change the synopsis, I'd rather stick with delusional optimism than realistic pessimism. I get to ride the absurd wave of excitement leading to an event, coupled with (potentially) crushing disappointment. Much preferable to "meh" which life has too much of anyway. That being said, I'm cheering on a West shift >50 miles in the 18z suite Well, that is our right as hobbyists....I feel it amplifies the disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Somebody needs a bootie call.... 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Man Friday looks awesome to the east. You see that setup and shit, I would have thought it would come closer to the coast. Big deep negative trough etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Man Friday looks awesome to the east. You see that setup and shit, I would have thought it would come closer to the coast. Big deep negative trough etc. I will pray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 The end of that Euro run looked interesting. Too bad it's in clown range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm rooting for Friday to come in more amped....don't think the bahamas low is getting us, but the main PJ shortwave is actually half-decent and it could turn into something like an advisory event....that's what I'll be hoping for to tide us over until next week when the D8-9 threat looks better. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just can not catch a break this year. It just snowed dude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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