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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Geezuz what a bunch of Debbie's lol.

 

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..everybody was giddy yesterday with the great pattern emerging, and today we have the Debbie’s doing what they do…all because the modeling today doesn’t know what s/w to key in on.  Sure it can all fail…but give me this super looking set up over the next two plus weeks, instead of that shit in December anytime.   We take and appreciate, and let the details work themselves out as we go along. 

The two of you putting your feet together and snapping your toes?

 

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

How your cutter tucked in last week make out? Negative Nellie's look for a reason to whine. It is what it is but geezuz what a way to live.

Not fair, dude.  Who was getting killed all December saying this winter wasn't a lost cause. But you can't just sign off on heavy snow when there isn't strong support for it.

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Ukie has a light event for Friday.

What about Sunday? All the other guidance shoots it so far OTS out to the SW that I doubt we would even get cirrus. Definitely favoring Friday, but maybe Sunday-Monday whiffing will help us down down road

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1 minute ago, tiger_deF said:

What about Sunday? All the other guidance shoots it so far OTS out to the SW that I doubt we would even get cirrus. Definitely favoring Friday, but maybe Sunday-Monday whiffing will help us down down road

Not even close for Sunday on Ukie...drops a PV lobe down into NE. GGEM did this too on the 12z run.

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34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not even close for Sunday on Ukie...drops a PV lobe down into NE. GGEM did this too on the 12z run.

Yeah, this is a whole new peregrination to the theme out there..  Wasn't there before - certainly nowhere near as obtrusive... 

Should be noted, there is a telecon drop in the NAO ...  Perhaps +1 --> -1 --> neutral, over the next 10 days, and that vortex's behavior would tend fit that, particularly if the transient blocking pulses over the western limb/D. straight region.

I recall some Euro runs had this 4 days ago but seem to lose it.. .But seeing as the telecon ( American ) has the NAO bounce, I dunno.  More headaches ...

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2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Take your chances with Friday. Hit or miss, the modeled Ocean storm is already robust enough to interfere with the followup wave.

I’m getting ready to resign myself to accepting that Western New England is not getting much snow anytime soon.  
Give me SWFE’s pattern because at least I know how that will play out. 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, this is a whole new peregrination to the theme out there..  Wasn't there before - certainly nowhere near as obtrusive... 

Should be noted, there is a telecon drop in the NAO ...  Perhaps +1 --> -1 --> neutral, over the next 10 days, and that vortex's behavior would tend fit that, particularly if the transient blocking pulses over the western limb/D. straight region.

I recall some Euro runs had this 4 days ago but seem to lose it.. .But seeing as the telecon ( American ) has the NAO bounce, I dunno.  More headaches ...

That is a reason I gave in the blog why the whiff scenario is favored.....the rising heights in the NAO region support that Friday ocean deal hanging around longer.

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