CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 This thing on models at the end of the weak looks like a tropical sucked up in the summer time lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 40 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That streamer goes all the way through S ORH county and to near UUU. Im right on the edge, little light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, CoastalWx said: This thing on models at the end of the weak looks like a tropical sucked up in the summer time lol. It may have a shallow warm core encased in the broader cold core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Onto Monday. The fish storm needs to bounce asap. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 If you want to see a worst possible outcome, check out the 12z ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Nice coverage by y'all overnight. Concur with wdrag re the wave space contentions. The gist: we enter a pattern steeped in big potential; capped by negative interference. Longer thoughts: Should any one of these waves "correct" or open up in guidance by even a little, there's apt to be a hefty return on storm genesis - it may take the 72 hour window for the models to emerge that, as anything near -side of the mid range and beyond seems to be muddled by native model bias. I personally still like Monday... It was a D9-11 ( for those following..) notion at last event end, now D7/8. I wonder if/when the operational GFS ( and to some extent the Euro) stop tussling on the two waves the GGEM is not fighting over, and start favoring that period for just such a plausible correction mentioned above. The thing is, the 13-14th system to me almost looks fake. I'm noticing in all the guidance ( really ), there is a bit of a +PNA --> ridge assessment happening 48-84 hours off the 00z; consequentially, that is "kinking" the flow into a trough due to natural ordering of L/W forcing immediate down stream. The models than use that, but here's the thing they are using that alone, without the benefit of very convincing actual S/W input ( or at least less impressive). Given in situ the ginormous native instability where and whenever the west Atlantic thermal source meets a continental spilling polar air mass, that's all the excuse these runs need to spawn that big low. Noticing it's broad circulation with several cyclonic nodes ...It just looks like much of it is thus artificial to me. We'll see. There's likely to be something there - I'm wondering how much. If less..less interference lends to more conserved late in the weekend/early next week. Not a thread -worth idea just yet, but I'm poised should more members start looking like the GGEM. Heh...I would almost never side with the GGEM at this range, and I'm not. But, there is reason to suspect just the same. Having said all that... There is a much bigger signal in the deep range, 270-ish hrs. It's been lurking...fi we want to call that range lurking. I mentioned yesterday that it could either be just the pattern maximization, OR, ... one of those upper tier scenarios that begins showing up at unusually long-leads, due to having overwhelming physical significance in the total circulation mode. There are a few that performed this way in guidance... 1993, Sandy leap to mind, but I'm sure we could dig up others. Anyway, might be that... might just simply be the pattern getting to it's more dominate form before entering decay... I will say that the 06 z GEFs mean did manifest an impressive signal around that time, with multiple close pressure contours, and a 48 hour QPF outlook well over an inch. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This thing on models at the end of the weak looks like a tropical sucked up in the summer time lol. GFS was really digging thought for sure it would be closer.. Im guessing some of the GEFS members might look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Populated area, yes...but a relatively small segment of the region geographically speaking. Ok fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: If you want to see a worst possible outcome, check out the 12z ICON That's very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 15 minutes ago, dryslot said: That would have been an SECS this season up here................lol Blizzard of 88... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 The mood in here is going to be just pissah if we roll snake eyes in this pattern and then bloom another RNA late month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: That's very possible. Congrats Eastport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The mood in here is going to be just pissah if we roll snake eyes in this pattern and then bloom another RNA late month I’m already in a funk. Lol Berkshire East is at 8” on the season. That is horrifying for almost mid-January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Eh...I'd still take an expected foot over a surprise inch, but that's just me. Of course. But some of my most memorable snow events were things like forecasted rain that morphed into 5" of mashed potatoes with thunder, a forecast of scattered snow showers that turned into a localized norlun trof pounding, or even the expectation of cold and dry interrupted by white out snow squalls. Snow happiness is maximized when an event overperforms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, eduggs said: Of course. But some of my most memorable snow events were things like forecasted rain that morphed into 5" of mashed potatoes with thunder, a forecast of scattered snow showers that turned into a localized norlun trof pounding, or even the expectation of cold and dry interrupted by white out snow squalls. Snow happiness is maximized when an event overperforms. I agree, but it needs to be greater than 5" for me....12/23/97, 12/14/92 and 4/1/97 are probably my most notable surprises/overachievers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 The only way I would really care about a surprise 3" of slush is if its on/just before Xmas, or I already have a deep pack. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 How many of the EPS ensembles show effects from the storm Friday in NE? Still think that, versus Sunday, is where our bread may be buttered Also that warm signal at the end of the GFS is no bueno.. shows a coastal storm that literally brings rain to the entire region outside of Northern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2022 Author Share Posted January 10, 2022 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The mood in here is going to be just pissah if we roll snake eyes in this pattern and then bloom another RNA late month I’m content with my 48 hours of snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 just give me ensemble member 19 on the 12z GEFS and I wont ask for another storm all winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Cmc looks good for this weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: How many of the EPS ensembles show effects from the storm Friday in NE? Still think that, versus Sunday, is where our bread may be buttered Also that warm signal at the end of the GFS is no bueno.. shows a coastal storm that literally brings rain to the entire region outside of Northern Maine. If we get another 384 hours out without a major snow event, then I will be all for warmer weather, so I am not even worried about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 GFS decides to go with shortwave #3 for a good storm on 1/18. I feel like one of these will work out, but I'd rather get Friday out of the way. There isn't enough room to amplify that unless it goes totally nuclear aloft. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 29 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: If you want to see a worst possible outcome, check out the 12z ICON It has support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: How many of the EPS ensembles show effects from the storm Friday in NE? Still think that, versus Sunday, is where our bread may be buttered Also that warm signal at the end of the GFS is no bueno.. shows a coastal storm that literally brings rain to the entire region outside of Northern Maine. I wouldn’t be worrying about any signals on an OP 384 hr run one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cmc looks good for this weekend For DC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: The mood in here is going to be just pissah if we roll snake eyes in this pattern and then bloom another RNA late month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I'd probably do a quick write up on Feb and then check out for a while. Would need a break...hopefully baseball can unf**k itself and I could shift towards fantasy draft prep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Geezuz what a bunch of Debbie's lol. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Lol..everybody was giddy yesterday with the great pattern emerging, and today we have the Debbie’s doing what they do…all because the modeling today doesn’t know what s/w to key in on. Sure it can all fail…but give me this super looking set up over the next two plus weeks, instead of that shit in December anytime. We take and appreciate, and let the details work themselves out as we go along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Geezuz what a bunch of Debbie's lol. Debbie Downer has a cousin, Rita Reality. In no way a forgone conclusion, but a total whiff this week is favored right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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