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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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Anyhow, the look is changing. Instead of 90 in TX, they are going to get cold shots and maybe a shot of wintry wx in the deep south. Another big s/w dives into the Plains, so we'll probably cut again before we finally get a nudge east. Our longitude FTL as we are last to get in on any fun.

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya I was thinking the same thing.  4 degrees above normal in January is like 37 degrees here and lower there…how does that equate to 50’s for highs?  What are we missing? 

It’s an ensemble mean 5 day average that’s warm. Look at the ops if you want to see the torch for actual highs. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lol oh ok…so now it’s a mega torch?  Wow, weeklies wrong again. Why would we even look at those POS anymore?  All we keep hearing is how the weeklies look very good…but it never happens.  Weeklies mega fail! 

That's the ensembles though, not weeklies.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That's the ensembles though, not weeklies.

I did realize that was the ensembles, But the weeklies say/painting a different picture, but then it doesn’t seem to materialize?  Or maybe I’m just confused.

 

Im in Far northern Maine for the week sledding. So it’s deep winter here at least. 9 degrees currently, and 2-3 inches coming today up here.  So at least I’m in a place where it’s winter for the week. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

You are going from below -3SD to near neutral in the PNA. That is a big change. Even if it goes to like -1SD.

 

image.thumb.png.e876bf5fc3fe2a2975f0b05363089daf.png

Ya that looks good. But it’s almost two weeks out…can we trust that?  You’d think something would have to give eventually right? That trough out west can’t stay there permanently…right?  

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Guidance could change too. It’s assuming we get a big cutter in there and that doesn’t always happen…esp in strong -WPO/EPO block that is going right into the North Pole…you can sometimes end up CADing the system. I know everyone is assuming the warm trend wins out because we’ve been getting mostly skunked but just as often you may see a trend of lowering heights in Quebec too. 

 

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya that looks good. But it’s almost two weeks out…can we trust that?  You’d think something would have to give eventually right? That trough out west can’t stay there permanently…right?  

Here is the image from the 19th. You can see, it was still predicted to drop until about now.

 

image.thumb.png.5375a6f3002f9b0c20bb8d5c55ce61da.png

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Guidance could change too. It’s assuming we get a big cutter in there and that doesn’t always happen…esp in strong -WPO/EPO block that is going right into the North Pole…you can sometimes end up CADing the system. I know everyone is assuming the warm trend wins out because we’ve been getting mostly skunked but just as often you may see a trend of lowering heights in Quebec too. 

 

Thanks for the explanation.  Let’s hope we can catch a break soon…

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Well, I guess it's time to write off this winter. It's over. Things are not going to change. Whenever I try to stay positive I just get stomped on. I do not wear Rose Colored Glasses amd I'm not an idiot. Weather's been a hobby of mine for my entire life. I don't claim to know everything, but it seems like a lot of you and here are meteorologists and professionals ( or at least act that way ), and there are select few that at  super cocky and think they know it all. So with that said, we'll look forward to next winter. Staying on here doesn't seem to be doing any wonders since Winter is over. Does that about sum it up?

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Trust me, you know me with my flags and I'm as frustrated as everyone else....but I do think we get out of this. Is 2015 walking in, probably not. But hopefully we can get a decent stretch.

Agreed. 
 

But we sure didn’t think ‘15 was walking in back in late January of 2015 either. That was a very frustrating stretch up to that point too.  
 

Yes, a decent stretch is all we want.  Doesn’t have to be epic/phenomenal, just decent is fine with me. 

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