ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:21 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Expand That looks pretty epic. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, look....we aren't getting 2'+ out of a pure Miller A...but they can still work out, and we can't be picky right now. There is also time to modulate this....I doubt it closes off quite that far south and we could also get some n stream insert. Bottom line is don't sweat details at this juncture. Expand I’m starting to panic because the polar vortex is deepening. If we don’t get hammered from this storm many areas could easily end up well below average for the winter. That would be a big disappointment considering how things looked a couple of weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:22 PM, ORH_wxman said: That looks pretty epic. Expand He rarely posts maps but when he does, it’s for flurries. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:20 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea. We do the pbp because that is what we do here but when the dust settles…at this lead time…we don’t sweat the deets, just keep the big signal. Expand The notion that Miller A and B cyclogenesis are two entirely binary concepts is so archaic....the reality of the matter is that: 1) The vast majority of events are some sort of hybrid to varying degrees. 2) Most of our best systems are hybrid that carry s stream juice with n stream reinvigoration on approach south of LI. That said, I would rather not see a system closed off before it gets to the mid atl, but I'm not so picky these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:22 PM, ORH_wxman said: That looks pretty epic. Expand Is that the epicosity train we've been waiting for? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:23 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: He rarely posts maps but when he does, it’s for flurries. Expand Yeah that was funny to me....Kevin does a rare map post and he decides to do it for an image that shows a light band of snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:14 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, he would also acknowledge that its a long season. Expand That's a perfect and optimistic response. Maybe the euro signs a great free agent to save the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:22 PM, ORH_wxman said: That looks pretty epic. Expand I've never seen so much ball spiking over the euro capitulating to flurries over these two events lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:22 PM, MJO812 said: Epo goes negative on the euro Expand Good, keep the ridging out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:23 PM, George001 said: I’m starting to panic because the polar vortex is deepening. If we don’t get hammered from this storm many areas could easily end up well below average for the winter. That would be a big disappointment considering how things looked a couple of weeks ago. Expand Dude, once we whiffed on the last 3 threats, our fate was mostly sealed for a below average snowfall winter.....sure, we could rebound, but it's very unlikely at this point where we are. Areas further southwest in CT that have gotten a little more plus a lower snowfall climo to begin with have an easier path to getting to normal snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:23 PM, George001 said: I’m starting to panic because the polar vortex is deepening. If we don’t get hammered from this storm many areas could easily end up well below average for the winter. That would be a big disappointment considering how things looked a couple of weeks ago. Expand As someone who forecasted a PV split late in the season, you are falling into the Judah Cohen trap of being too reliant on it....its not the only element to the hemispheric weather pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:26 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: As someone who forecasted a PV split late in the season, you are falling into the Judah Cohen trap of being too reliant on it....its not the only element to the hemispheric weather pattern. Expand Gfs shows a pretty good SSW event early Feb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:25 PM, FXWX said: That's a perfect and optimistic response. Maybe the euro signs a great free agent to save the season. Expand I think over the long run that the Euro is still the superior piece of guidance, but the difference is no longer as great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:29 PM, SnoSki14 said: Gfs shows a pretty good SSW event early Feb Expand Yea, we'll see...its been kicking Jeff's can on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Anyways, I've seen worse EPS runs than this at 8-9 days out....it's an eternity, but at least there is some cross-guidance support on this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat Miser Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 6:51 PM, Torch Tiger said: Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:22 PM, ORH_wxman said: That looks pretty epic. Expand Well Ray and Red Eye said they looked and didn’t see snow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:23 PM, George001 said: I’m starting to panic because the polar vortex is deepening. If we don’t get hammered from this storm many areas could easily end up well below average for the winter. That would be a big disappointment considering how things looked a couple of weeks ago. Expand 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:31 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Well Ray and Red Eye said they looked and didn’t see snow Expand I didn't look. I went off of what he said, and I would agree with him that scattered snow showers do not constitute "a snower". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:29 PM, ORH_wxman said: Anyways, I've seen worse EPS runs than this at 8-9 days out....it's an eternity, but at least there is some cross-guidance support on this one. Expand The trough looks considerably further east than the last major cutter. OTS is more of a risk imo. I think the new Euro upgrade amps the storms too far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 Your snower doesn't drop so much as an inch anywhere in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:35 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Your snower doesn't drop so much as an inch anywhere in SNE Expand So Red eye and you were incorrect . Noted 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:36 PM, Damage In Tolland said: So Red eye and you were incorrect . Noted Expand I consider a snower to be a plowable event....note this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:24 PM, CoastalWx said: Is that the epicosity train we've been waiting for? Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:29 PM, ORH_wxman said: Anyways, I've seen worse EPS runs than this at 8-9 days out....it's an eternity, but at least there is some cross-guidance support on this one. Expand The left-side cluster is actually pretty insane. Going through the panels in time, it appears they may have tracked to that point from waaaay out in the Atlantic. One runner and one tucker among 51 members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:23 PM, George001 said: I’m starting to panic because the polar vortex is deepening. If we don’t get hammered from this storm many areas could easily end up well below average for the winter. That would be a big disappointment considering how things looked a couple of weeks ago. Expand Time to call in the Navy??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 6:54 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Anything is better than cold and dry. Expand Rain is worse than cold and dry. You cant go outside and it's ugly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:32 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I didn't look. I went off of what he said, and I would agree with him that scattered snow showers do not constitute "a snower". Expand Yeah a "snower" would be a significant snow one would think. Can I consider the local slight dusting in May 2020 a snower? https://dragonballmultiverse.fandom.com/wiki/Snower "Snower was the second son of Emperor Blizzard, the father of King Cold and Polar, and the grandfather of Freeza and Coola" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 I think I get one day above freezing in the next week. By this time next week you’ll be able to walk on most rivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 21, 2022 Share Posted January 21, 2022 On 1/21/2022 at 7:48 PM, NeonPeon said: Rain is worse than cold and dry. You cant go outside and it's ugly. Expand Have fun frolicking in the fields with -20 degree wind chills...I'd rather dodge puddles and be comfortable. Again, if I had a respectable snow pack, maybe I would feel differently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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