Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Yup...that's exactly what happened... that wave pushed through the west and negatively interfered with the eastern seaboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 And scene....Curtains close on January. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yup...that's exactly what happened... that wave pushed through the west and negatively interfered with the eastern seaboard. Euro could easily end of too deep with that feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 My guess is that EURO is too amplified with that. Something to watch....GEM and GFS look much better out west, and the days of capitulating to the EURO by default are gone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Let's see if future GFS runs pick up on what the Euro is selling. The next run could be a real hoot after that 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Let's see if future GFS runs pick up on what the Euro is selling. The next run could be a real hoot after that 12z run. A real hoot nanny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Euro could easily end of too deep with that feature. I'm about as confident in the Euro's over all complexion of that range of time as I am in the GFS succeeding in halting society for a yard or more. The Euro's puzzlingly bad performance at 96 hour lead wrt to the weekend "ghost" ...not sure what's up with that but it elevated a suggestion ongoing performance, to something more obviously peculiar going on with that model. I still saw it operate better than the other guidance in a few different facets this winter, so..it's probably endemic to the pattern we are in ... and/or perhaps just that one weird positive trough handling - I dunno. But my point is, we can't ( obviously and duh - ) bank on a climate ceiling depiction at D9 in one hand, while in the other, the Euro's on probation for whatever and whenever it does beyond D3 at this time. I would conclude - thusly - that this is mere noise ... if it were not for the fact that ~ 1/3 to 2/5ths of the GEF individual members I reviewed, carry important Nor'easter up the EC D8-11 - which is a large enough improvement from the 00z cycle to nod to the notion there may be something there. What that is "up in the egregious pun air" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Now that we've finally established that Euro is 'just another model' at Day 4/5, you still have some throwing hissy fits on it's day 9 OP output. Come on people 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'm about as confident in the Euro's over all complexion of that range of time as I am in the GFS succeeding in halting society for a yard or more. The Euro's puzzlingly bad performance at 96 hour lead wrt to the weekend "ghost" ...not sure what's up with that but it elevated a suggestion ongoing performance, to something more obviously peculiar going on with that model. I still saw it operate better than the other guidance in a few different facets this winter, so..it's probably endemic to the pattern we are in ... and/or perhaps just that one weird positive trough handling - I dunno. But my point is, we can't ( obviously and duh - ) bank on a climate ceiling depiction at D9 in one hand, while in the other, the Euro's on probation for whatever and whenever it does beyond D3 at this time. I would conclude - thusly - that this is mere noise ... if it were not for the fact that ~ 1/3 to 2/5ths of the GEF individual members I reviewed, carry important Nor'easter up the EC D8-11 - which is a large enough improvement from the 00z cycle to nod to the notion there's likely something there. What that is "up in the egregious pun air" Yea, I don't think anyone expects March 1993 removed 75 miles east....but I think odds favor something more ominous than that particular 12z EURO run. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: Now that we've finally established that Euro is 'just another model' at Day 4/5, you still have some throwing hissy fits on it's day 9 OP output. Come on people Who threw a hissy fit? Seems like simple discussion to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Focus on the Tuesday clipper. That should be another nice refresher like today at a minimum 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said: Now that we've finally established that Euro is 'just another model' at Day 4/5, you still have some throwing hissy fits on it's day 9 OP output. Come on people What ? ..uh, we're just talkin' here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Who threw a hissy fit? Seems like simple discussion to me... Yeah it was just one post by 8611Blizz, not you. It was the 2nd post I saw so I assumed many were doing it, but I was wrong, so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Focus on the Tuesday clipper. That should be another nice refresher like today at a minimum I dunno, it's pretty far north on guidance now....I'd want to see the southern stream inject some juice into that. Looks like one of those shredded radar 1" deals if we can't get more moisture....some previous runs were dipping that northern stream shortwave far south enough that we'd get the NJ-model redeveloper without any southern stream help, but those solutions are gone....too far north now....maybe they come back but I'm skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I dunno, it's pretty far north on guidance now....I'd want to see the southern stream inject some juice into that. Looks like one of those shredded radar 1" deals if we can't get more moisture....some previous runs were dipping that northern stream shortwave far south enough that we'd get the NJ-model redeveloper without any southern stream help, but those solutions are gone....too far north now....maybe they come back but I'm skeptical. Its another feature worthy of ignore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Focus on the Tuesday clipper. That should be another nice refresher like today at a minimum Today sucked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Focus on the Tuesday clipper. That should be another nice refresher like today at a minimum Never snowed here today... I'm frankly less optimistic about Tuesday - for the record, I wrote about it yesterday as a "low probability for positive return," and meant it. But did bother to go into some analytic ways in which it could evolve more just for shits and giggles. God this winter is a f'n bore, man - But I'm not so hot on that one ( not that anyone asked ) at this point, because what fleeting chances I gave for improvement, did not materialize on this 12z suite of model runs. The wave mechanics started nosing into the denser materialized sounding/initialization on the 12z and it's still a blown open ravioli mess coming through here. More momentum is still in process of coming in, though ...so it may .. probably not I dunno. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitzbuhel Craver Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: My guess is that EURO is too amplified with that. Something to watch....GEM and GFS look much better out west, and the days of capitulating to the EURO by default are gone. Many chinks in the armor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its another feature worthy of ignore. Yeah I'll check in on it each run, but not going to waste much time parsing it unless there is improvement....most likely outcome on that one is a nothing-burger shredded radar deal. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Never snowed here today... I'm frankly less optimistic about Tuesday - for the record, I wrote about it yesterday as a "low probability for positive return," and meant it. But did bother to go into some analytic ways in which it could evolve more just for shits and giggles. God this winter is a f'n bore, man - But I'm not so hot on that one ( not that anyone asked ) at this point, because what fleeting chances I gave for improvement, did not materialize on this 12z suite of model runs. The wave mechanics started nosing into the denser materialized sounding/initialization on the 12z and it's still a blown open ravioli mess coming through here. More momentum is still in process of coming in, though ...so it may .. probably not I dunno. I bet that there will be few samples of eye Pez amongst the 12z EPS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I dunno, it's pretty far north on guidance now....I'd want to see the southern stream inject some juice into that. Looks like one of those shredded radar 1" deals if we can't get more moisture....some previous runs were dipping that northern stream shortwave far south enough that we'd get the NJ-model redeveloper without any southern stream help, but those solutions are gone....too far north now....maybe they come back but I'm skeptical. Ensembles are all north ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I bet that there will be few samples of eye Pez amongst the 12z EPS members. Seeing as the GEFs goosed it by a third, wouldn't surprise me. GEPs trended pretty significantly actually ..interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Its another feature worthy of ignore. Maybe it becomes more of an IVT? lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Maybe it becomes more of an IVT? lol Fingers and weenies crossed.....hopefully it exclusively snows on the doghouses of central and eastern CT again. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ensembles are all north ? No, ensembles are a stationary squall line over Tolland, mainly the portion of town near 1000'. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: No, ensembles are a stationary squall line over Tolland, mainly the portion of town near 1000'. When will you be taking a break from board? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Some you guys throwing away the rest of winter seems premature. Models suck beyond 3 days and people are writing off the next 4-6wks. I'm usually a half glass empty guy, but in Biden's best voice "C'mon man", have some faith. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Nice sunny, tolerable afternoon after the analfront earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: This probably won't change between now and then. Look forward to all the rain and wind I get when this cuts through Buffalo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: Look forward to all the rain and wind I get when this cuts through Buffalo. You forget there are actually 2 viable options. 1. Rain as you mentioned. 2. Hits southern middle Atlantic and OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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