40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, MJO812 said: I have lost so much sleep staying up for the shitty Euro. I don't even stay up anymore for the gfs past 240 hours. It's a waste. Yea, shit like that I cut out this week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 30 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If next winter sucks, that will be a first...I have never had five consecutive shitty seasons dating back to 1956...not even the 80's pulled that off. We are in rarified suckitude here. My worst period was 96/97 through 99/00 4 consecutive below average snowfall seasons with one season only 3.5 inches of snow!!!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, shit like that I cut out this week. I am giving the EURO the cold shoulder for a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, shit like that I cut out this week. I will still look at the models when I wake up but now I know not to take them seriously unless the Euro , GFS and CMC all show something similar before 200 hours. I will start tracking below 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: My worst period was 96/97 through 99/00 4 consecutive below average snowfall seasons with one season only 3.5 inches of snow!!!!! These stretches make the good ones more enjoyable. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: You know you'll get for saying such things. I mean maybe...but it's really hard to make up 50"+ in like a 5-6 week span which is where we'd be by early February....for the epic snow belt towns in south-central CT, they have more wiggle room to reach average, but up here, we're way behind climo and you need snow events every so often not to fall too far behind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I will still look at the models when I wake up but now I know not to take them seriously unless the Euro , GFS and CMC all show something similar before 200 hours. I will start tracking below 200 hours. Not even looking right now...I'll see from here and social media if anything warrants. I'm plugged in enough.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I am giving the EURO the cold shoulder for a while. Remember when it use to nail storms and other models use to trend to it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Frustration on this garbage winter aside....if we're looking for the best windows here, it's still Jan 25-26....there is still pretty decent ensemble support for that system. Then I'd prob look at Jan 29-30th and Feb 2nd....those are two dates that have some weak ensemble signals. Flying to England on February 2nd, so you can probably look that in to %#@* up my travel plans, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I have lost so much sleep staying up for the shitty Euro. I don't even stay up anymore for the gfs past 240 hours. It's a waste. Why? Why would anyone ever stay up late or all night or set alarms to look at a model? They’ll still be there to see in the morning.. along with the 6z . Just totally blows my mind 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why? Why would anyone ever stay up late or all night or set alarms to look at a model? They’ll still be there to see in the morning.. along with the 6z . Just totally blows my mind I get a boner when the late shift models show something nice. 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: I get a boner when the late shift models show something nice. As disturbing a post as the board as ever seen . Hopefully not with the criminals in the precinct 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: She thinks I'm talking to women but I keep telling her it's all guys. shhh don't tell her about us 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Why? Why would anyone ever stay up late or all night or set alarms to look at a model? They’ll still be there to see in the morning.. along with the 6z . Just totally blows my mind We've obviously entered bizzaro world when DIT is the one making reasonable posts 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 37 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It all evens out...shit like that always broke right in years like 2015 and 2005. I'm over it...whatever happens, happens. I am honestly starting to wonder about futility....I am at 10" heading into the final week of January. I very well may make it to Feb at 10"...short list of seasons that have pulled that off. 1979-80 (futility season of 19.9"), 1988-1989 (20.3"), 1994-1995 (22.5") and 2006-2007 (34.5") Normal season for me is around 65". 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I would say of those 4 seasons, 1979-1980 is most comparable. Building off of my reference to 1979-1980....its really not a bad analog so far. Here is the seasonal H5 pattern to date to this point......vs the composite of my 4 seasons of 10" or less by Feb 1, and finally compared to just 1979-80. Note that while this year is NOT a good match to those ratters, due in large part to the neg NAO and lack of a death vortex around AK, 1979-1980 by itself is not a bad match at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 We probably would have been better off without the NAO block in December, given the magnitude of the RNA....would have been some front enders as opposed to nothing but compression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 If it's not going to snow, can it at least be like yesterday with temps in the 40s. Ain't nobody got time for sunny 10F days. Move to the Dakotas if that's what you want. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: If it's not going to snow, can it at least be like yesterday with temps in the 40s. Ain't nobody got time for sunny 10F days. Move to the Dakotas if that's what you want. At least they have snow..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We probably would have been better off without the NAO block in December, given the magnitude of the RNA....would have been some front enders as opposed to nothing but compression. Mm ... matter of subjective analysis, but I wonder if that "what if" would be so... If the -NAO was not a part of the larger synoptic circulatory manifold, I suspect autumn of 2006 ... 1999, with a flat ridge sans any meaningful CAA events through that month as likelier. Particularly 2006, stringing days near 60 ... even briefly 70 F. That also happened back in 1999 I believe it was...though it may not have lasted the whole month. I recall a six day stretch in the high 60s, two days of which were in the 70s that December. Both then, 2006 were dominating -PNA with virtually 0 polar mass field modulation S of the 50th parallel. I suspect "would have been" 2021. But that's my take - Having said all that... I agree this year's NAO was too aggressive, either way. What "if" we modulated that -NAO less strong? I have a personal hypothesis: we needed to modulate the -PNA less dominating, because that's the source-origin. The -NAO's character was driven by the former. It's complex, but, the super-synoptic forcing came from non-linear wave mechanics. Think 'rogue wave' phenomenon in the oceans. You have A, B, C, D ... H waves rolling/interacting, constructively and destructively interfering. That type of interaction means waves B and C may physically dump energy into H, while the wave spaces in between do not apparently observe effects. This is as opposed to linear wave interaction, where A directly influence B ... directly influences C ... F and so on. The flow was fast ( what's new since 2002 ~), and the mean polar jet suppressed along the west coast/Rockies, and instead of big direct, linear response of a ridge over the OV, there was a flat ridge, with even a modest trough in the west Atlantic. But all that stored momentum then buckled the flow hugely over ( in particular...) the western limb of the NAO domain region - that's H in this example. It gives the allusion of the NAO obtruding exertion, but it is ultimately caused by the same RNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm ... matter of subjective analysis, but I wonder if that "what if" would be so... If the -NAO was not a part of the larger synoptic circulatory manifold, I suspect autumn of 2006 ... 1999, with a flat ridge sans any meaningful CAA events through that month as likelier. Particularly 2006, stringing days near 60 ... even briefly 70 F. That also happened back in 1999 I believe it was...though it may not have lasted the whole month. I recall a six day stretch in the high 60s, two days of which were in the 70s that December. Both then, 2006 were dominating -PNA with virtually 0 polar mass field modulation S of the 50th parallel. I suspect "would have been" 2021. But that's my take - Having said all that... I agree this year's NAO was too aggressive, either way. What "if" we modulated that -NAO less strong? I have a personal hypothesis: That we needed to modulate the -PNA less dominating, because that's the source-origin. The -NAO's character was driven by the former. It's complex, but, the super-synoptic forcing came from non-linear wave mechanics. Think 'rogue wave' phenomenon in the oceans. You have A, B, C, D ... H waves rolling/interacting, constructively and destructively interfering. That type of interaction means waves B and C may physically dump energy into H, while the wave spaces in between do not apparently observe effects. This is as opposed to linear wave interaction, where A directly influence B ... directly influences C ... F and so on. The flow was fast ( what's new since 2002 ~), and the mean polar jet suppressed along the west coast/Rockies, and instead of big direct, linear response of a ridge over the OV, there was a flat ridge, with even a modest trough in the west Atlantic. But all that stored momentum then buckled the flow hugely over ( in particular...) the western limb of the NAO domain region - that's H in this example. It gives the allusion of the NAO obtruding exertion, but it is ultimately caused by the same RNA. Anyway, Yea, I didn't mean a death vortex in the arctic....just not a huge block. I agree the Pacific ultimately drives the bus....just speaking in a theoretical "what if" sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 Is half a dusting a legitimate measurement? That’s what I have. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If next winter sucks, that will be a first...I have never had five consecutive shitty seasons dating back to 1956...not even the 80's pulled that off. We are in rarified suckitude here. I think the only winter I can think of that may have saved that was either '87 or '88. Growing up in Granby, CT it's the one winter that saved it being 8 years in a row of suck. The next few were terrible until '92. Even that '88 or whatever I think was barely average, if not below. It just seemed great because of prior years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I think this run, right now this morning ...is sort of pivotal in 1995 for assessing what happens Tuesday of this next week. Not so sure about 2022, tho. ( has that for spaghetti logic) Back whence, ...even through 2010-ish, we could almost count on wave mechanical relays from off the Pacific as having been 'under' assessed, and then they get physically sampled and included in the initialization and ... boom! Pays dividends to the winter enthusiasts over eastern mid latitudes. If not, one might at least observe better model continuity begin moving forward, also getting cross-guidance contention less distracting, too. Sometimes when doing so, what came out was a "Boxing Day Storm," short duration pretty babe pay-off. I have not seen pay-offs since then, like that. In fact, I've seen the opposite happen more often. Different discussion... But the S/W presently nosing over western Canada has been erstwhile over the Pacific for days. It's about to perform an interesting aspect in all the guidance I've scanned. It bifurcates passing over the Canadian lower cordillera, probably because the +PNA ridge is more likely to be considered a "west biased ridge," which stresses/ .. pulls the wave space apart went it starts descending latitude over that region. Anyway, some 1/3 ( or so..) of the wave energy shears off and tucks briefly over the SW... the remaining ballast moves progressively across southern Canada. It's after that that things get complex.. The energy in the SW gets kicked E as the +PNA ridge tries to reassert back into the west early next week. The N/stream then fails to show up at the party. It's too bad too...because the southern stream impulse is plenty to be a phase seeder space, but that N/stream just doesn't contain any meaningful new S/W to drill and have sex. It's okay though... if that southern ejected energy is better looking, it can put on a good show all alone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Briz600 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I’m sick of this crap. Ready for spring 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I dunno...in some ways it is liberating to have nothing to track and just to see what happens. Probably easier when I'm going on my walks through a foot of snow in the woods vs. staring at bare ground. It is deep winter up here right not. But also, the models have been so bad recently that things can pop up, overperform, underperform, disappoint and delight. I said a few days ago that we have a good chance of a storm between Jan 23-26, and that is a real possibility. We'll have a couple more chances before February. I think most of us get 6-12 between now and Feb 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 How's that Pittsburg pounder looking for the end of the month that was posted the other day? Hope and prayers for that 10 day image to verify. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I've had 2 days of where there was semblance of snowpack this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I've had 2 days of where there was semblance of snowpack this winter. Same here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 49 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Is half a dusting a legitimate measurement? That’s what I have. Officially a trace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 20, 2022 Share Posted January 20, 2022 I'm going to watch the webcams tomorrow from the southern states during their snow event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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