January 2022 Obs/Disco

[EastonSN+]

12 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

You can confidently lock in that 264 hour depiction.

Thanks!

[Ginx snewx]

21⁰ total deep winter day with snow blowing around even if only a couple of inches. Nice to see

[powderfreak]

Midnight high of 23F.  Dropped to -1F earlier this evening.  CAA all day long.  Slow, steady drop.

[dendrite]

Down to 2F

[PhineasC]

-3

[Torch Tiger]

6 hours ago, JC-CT said:

Nothing else will verify...except this. This will happen.

let's go!!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9/5 probably get close to zero by sunrise.

nothing epic but some solid cold to firm up lakes etc for the outdoor enthusiasts.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Clipper next week followed by a secs.   I can feel it.

[weathafella]

35 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Clipped next week followed by a sex   

Wife gave you the ultimatum on hair length?

[BrianW]

Just took the dog out for a walk and it's already a nice warm 36 here on the shore. 

The sunrise is pretty epic as well 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

31 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Just took the dog out for a walk and it's already a nice warm 36 here on the shore. 

The sunrise is pretty epic as well 

Damn, it’s 12F here. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Damn, it’s 12F here. 

Definitely a bit warmer there.  It's 23F here.  Nothing remarkable.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

9 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Definitely a bit warmer there.  It's 23F here.  Nothing remarkable.

Already climbing here, up to 14F 

[moneypitmike]

Only 10 posts since midnight in the January discussion thread tells you all you need to know.

[PhineasC]

Bottomed out at -9, now 0. 

[dryslot]

Went from -2 overnight to 6°F now and overcast.

[Baroclinic Zone]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Already climbing here, up to 14F 

WAA kicking in.

[Typhoon Tip]

Low probability, but there is a non-zero chance for 'positive return' scenario early/mid next week ... monitoring interesting stream interaction 120 to 156 hours  (  from ~ 06z start point for the purpose of this missive, but others may also have noticed this going back a couple few cycles) .

Am aware we've been discussing the 22nd and 24th. This is relatable to the same 'synoptic superstructure' of concerns, but is a shift of interest to very late on the 24th through the 26th.

Longer concept rendition:  Part of the problem with the 22nd and the 24th they were too vague as focus times in a generally. They were chosen because there were  at least 'soft' impressions nested in a general favorable flex in the +PNAP.  I annotated how/why ...now scrolled between too many pages to bother dredging it back up, but note the 00z to 96z delta(hgt) overlapping the WC and B.C. of Canada,

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=500h_anom&rh=2022011900&fh=0&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

-->

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=500h_anom&rh=2022011900&fh=96&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

- also the case in the GEFS and GEPS, en masse consistently for days. 

Typically downstream of that kind of modulation, ( and the weight of the ens means/cross g support notwithstanding!) interesting goodies will evolve. It supplies a "correction vector" to the field pointed toward deeper trough materialization as to where the models are likely to correct toward - hence the terminology.  Look for more amplitude to emerge in future guidance ... with no guarantees that will actually happen. Heh, we used to say, "It's not that my forecast was wrong; it's because the atmosphere didn't cooperate" LOL

That was true for the 22nd and 24th .. I feel the simultaneous correction of the models to speed the flow, a leitmotif (recurring theme) where they correct the flow faster moving ext to mid range, intervened on intents and purposes so to sepak - ..don't wanna get into it, but they all do this and have been for years now.  It I suspect it partially reared its ugly disruption, where the models have to deconstruct their own wave mechanics in time, introducing more and more negative interference as an increasing offset moving D9's to D5s.  It could very well be why this phenomenon of huge systems tending to pedestrian as they get nearer..etc.  It doesn't mean things can't be modeled and holed to happen. It doesn't always happen where the models do that. Also, if a given S/W are more amplified, they offset and still torque the flow more.  Trade slow moving, very deep results, for shallower ( still potent) faster moving results.  This idea below could be that as these two may significantly ( positively ) offset. This is the 06z oper. GFS, as it sets up a 132 hr vision.

 

[MJO812]

Looks like the pattern turns bad as we head into February 

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like the pattern turns bad as we head into February 

 

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, powderfreak said:

Midnight high of 23F.  Dropped to -1F earlier this evening.  CAA all day long.  Slow, steady drop.

This month has already had 7 daily highs at my 9 PM obs time and an 8th an hour later.  Twice the 9 PM reading was the max for both the ending and beginning day and a 3rd time the consecutive-day highs were at 9 and 10.  Afternoon highs on those 8 days ranged from 2 to 11 degrees colder than the recorded highs. It's currently 4°, up from a wee hours low of -7, and there's a non-zero chance today's high will be at 9 PM.  Snow has increased from count-the-flakes to legitimate S-, my 19th event with measurable snow and maybe it will bring the total to over 23".

On average, 88% of our average snowfall (89") comes Dec-Mar, our "snow months".  The most recent snow month with AN snow was Feb 2019 - ten straight with BN snow, and we'll need another 10-11" this month to avoid making it 11.
Edit:  Or 12, given the 2 above posts.

[SouthCoastMA]

Meh - Until I see that ridge out west start to collapse - I couldn't give two flying f*cks about a +AO. Things looks good pattern wise through early February. Doesn't mean we'll capitalize, of course. 

[Colonel Badger]

19 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like the pattern turns bad as we head into February 

Was the pattern ever good? Sure it got colder, but still no snow, other than some nuisance stuff.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like the pattern turns bad as we head into February 

I'm all for that, at this point TBH. Gladly reshuffle milder....nothing redeeming about this to me. I'll take a mild few weeks, and hopefully gear up for a big finale in early March...if not, the end will at least be in sight. I've started draft prep this week...earliest ever.

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

We can still  capitalize 

[PhineasC]

LOL at the pattern chasers. Shoveling feet of pattern across the land. 

[DJln491]

I picked the wrong year to get back into skiing 

[Ginx snewx]

15 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

I picked the wrong year to get back into skiing 

Hmm seems my friends have been having a ball with chalky runs

[WinterWolf]

34 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We can still  capitalize 

That outlook will change in a couple days too…they’re all trying for hits on their sites. 

[GCWarrior]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Low probability, but there is a non-zero chance for 'positive return' scenario early/mid next week ... monitoring interesting stream interaction 120 to 156 hours  (  from ~ 06z start point for the purpose of this missive, but others may also have noticed this going back a couple few cycles) .

Am aware we've been discussing the 22nd and 24th. This is relatable to the same 'synoptic superstructure' of concerns, but is a shift of interest to very late on the 24th through the 26th.

Longer concept rendition:  Part of the problem with the 22nd and the 24th they were too vague as focus times in a generally. They were chosen because there were  at least 'soft' impressions nested in a general favorable flex in the +PNAP.  I annotated how/why ...now scrolled between too many pages to bother dredging it back up, but note the 00z to 96z delta(hgt) overlapping the WC and B.C. of Canada,

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=500h_anom&rh=2022011900&fh=0&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

-->

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefs&p=500h_anom&rh=2022011900&fh=96&r=nh&dpdt=&mc=

- also the case in the GEFS and GEPS, en masse consistently for days. 

Typically downstream of that kind of modulation, ( and the weight of the ens means/cross g support notwithstanding!) interesting goodies will evolve. It supplies a "correction vector" to the field pointed toward deeper trough materialization as to where the models are likely to correct toward - hence the terminology.  Look for more amplitude to emerge in future guidance ... with no guarantees that will actually happen. Heh, we used to say, "It's not that my forecast was wrong; it's because the atmosphere didn't cooperate" LOL

That was true for the 22nd and 24th .. I feel the simultaneous correction of the models to speed the flow, a leitmotif (recurring theme) where they correct the flow faster moving ext to mid range, intervened on intents and purposes so to sepak - ..don't wanna get into it, but they all do this and have been for years now.  It I suspect it partially reared its ugly disruption, where the models have to deconstruct their own wave mechanics in time, introducing more and more negative interference as an increasing offset moving D9's to D5s.  It could very well be why this phenomenon of huge systems tending to pedestrian as they get nearer..etc.  It doesn't mean things can't be modeled and holed to happen. It doesn't always happen where the models do that. Also, if a given S/W are more amplified, they offset and still torque the flow more.  Trade slow moving, very deep results, for shallower ( still potent) faster moving results.  This idea below could be that as these two may significantly ( positively ) offset. This is the 06z oper. GFS, as it sets up a 132 hr vision.

 

Be nice to see this get more organized.  That 6z GFS was looking more fun.  Seems like a thread the needle situation with the two pieces of energy phasing.