Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 46 minutes ago, wdrag said: Late 13 -14 still a concern: GEFS in particular likes this bombing storm for a LI/SNE grazer. Did not start a thread for this due to most modeling and WPC missing east but this probable big ocean storm is a concern by not allowing enough separation between systems for the necessary ridging in the northeast ahead of the next Great Lakes diving short wave - ie depressed weaker further south on the 16th. The good news for an event are ensembles (GEFS, and especially the EPS) are in favor of a weekend centered snow event and the new overnight WPC D6-7 graphics are added - use time period and the low probs legend to continue D6-7 perspective on 3" chance. The EPS in particular is developing a nice 850 Low just to our south, Will check back on the modeling this Monday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Sunday has the better shot, but I think risk is OTS on both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Sunday has the better shot, but I think risk is OTS on both. I do like the ensemble signal better for the latter half of the weekend (especially the EPS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: I do like the ensemble signal better for the latter half of the weekend (especially the EPS). Yeah some thought Friday, but if there is a chance, I think more Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: The ocean storm ruins everything on the euro. I actually think it's part that and part the one on its heels mucking up the flow a bit. Probably a combination of the two. Hopefully we are just in a mid range lose it, only to bring it back stage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 hours ago, MJO812 said: The ocean storm ruins everything on the euro. Our best chance is for the Friday ocean storm to be a dud in my opinion. Sets the stage better for Sunday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said: Our best chance is for the Friday ocean storm to be a dud in my opinion. Sets the stage better for Sunday. Agreed. There are going to be plenty of chances though it looks like. There seems to be another potent shortwave behind the weekend deal too if that one fails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 There is a strong OTS risk for Friday, but man that would be one hell of a storm if it did come to fruition. An intense low, blocking pattern which slows it down on approach, and sufficient arctic air would have widespread 12-18+ across NE. We hope... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Let’s get the gfs coastal with all rain and then a SE ridge after. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 That ocean storm needs to get the F out of the way ots. EPS looks nice for Sunday. A lot depends on that frigging Ocean storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s get the gfs coastal with all rain and then a SE ridge after. Why not? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Definitely doesn’t look like anything imminent. This weekend is kind of a long shot; maybe later next week first legit chance? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Let’s get the gfs coastal with all rain and then a SE ridge after. You skipped a step 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Nice streamer in the Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: That ocean storm needs to get the F out of the way ots. EPS looks nice for Sunday. A lot depends on that frigging Ocean storm Right...get rid of it. Its not hitting....only potential impact on us is upstream negative interference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right...get rid of it. Its not hitting....only potential impact on us is upstream negative interference. Send it to Nick in St John. Sorry Hazey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 16 minutes ago, dryslot said: Yea, I have been kind of waiting for something more concrete and imminent to emerge from this sea of potential, but it hasn't happened quite yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: He's telling you the same thing we are....moist likely impact from your Friday ocean storm is ruining the next potential. That is my concern with "threats" everywhere...on the one hand, its chalked full of potential and on the surface it looks like a great pattern, but the risk for deconstructive interference with too many cooks in the kitchen is heightened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I have been kind of waiting for something more concrete and imminent to emerge from this sea of potential, but it hasn't happened quite yet. We've already witnessed all the ways for it not to snow, I called the cold and dry 10 days or so back when this arctic front showed up on models, We can use it though at this time as everything up here was sketchy for ice recreation but it would be nice to see something more imminent on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: We've already witnessed all the ways for it not to snow, I called the cold and dry 10 days or so back when this arctic front showed up on models, We can use it though at this time as everything up here was sketchy for ice recreation but it would be nice to see something more imminent on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: We've already witnessed all the ways for it not to snow, I called the cold and dry 10 days or so back when this arctic front showed up on models, We can use it though at this time as everything up here was sketchy for ice recreation but it would be nice to see something more imminent on the models. If that ocean storm doesn't trend significantly weaker and/or further east today, we are probably waiting at least another 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Talk to me when we start seeing MECS's. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 17 minutes ago, dryslot said: We've already witnessed all the ways for it not to snow, I called the cold and dry 10 days or so back when this arctic front showed up on models, We can use it though at this time as everything up here was sketchy for ice recreation but it would be nice to see something more imminent on the models. Cold and dry gave me a foot of snow. Nothing against you but you cold and dry is not bad news down here in the comparative coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: If that ocean storm doesn't trend significantly weaker and/or further east today, we are probably waiting at least another 10 days. Then we lose most of Jan too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 Just now, dryslot said: Talk to me when we start seeing MECS's. Just had one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Just had one. You did, Not up here, So yeah, Talk to me when we start seeing MECS's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: He's telling you the same thing we are....moist likely impact from your Friday ocean storm is ruining the next potential. That is my concern with "threats" everywhere...on the one hand, its chalked full of potential and on the surface it looks like a great pattern, but the risk for deconstructive interference with too many cooks in the kitchen is heightened. Ocean storm should end January threats for the next two weeks, that’s a bomb 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 I’m all in for light events Friday and Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Ocean storm should end January threats for the next two weeks, that’s a bomb Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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