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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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  On 1/8/2022 at 6:55 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can honestly say that its more fun losing to NNE than SNE and it's not close....powder and subby holes are so boring. Much rather track the coastal front, rain/snow line, deal with paste and note the changing landscape as I travel to work. 

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6” is 6” whether it’s man snow or not. I could care less who I lose out to. Why is it so triggering? And in Boxing Day you had almost a foot. It’s not like you had 3” of sand and lost out to Boston. 

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  On 1/8/2022 at 7:01 PM, CoastalWx said:

6” is 6” whether it’s man snow or not. I could care less who I lose out to. Why is it so triggering? And in Boxing Day you had almost a foot. It’s not like you had 3” of sand and lost out to Boston. 

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We'll agree to disagree. I value paste more than sublimation sauce...and to me, tracking rain/snow line and cf is more fun than watching death bands and oes streamers run the train on the coast and I95.

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  On 1/8/2022 at 6:48 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think you should extrapolate the Navy out 8 days and go for it. 

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I'll post a grid map for snow depth in that timeframe if you insist, but for what reason I have no idea? Heck even MSLP is way "off" (wrong) in the LA-LA land of modelling. 
Potential is there, support from ensembles, some model agreement. Further runs needed to validate threat... something to watch. I think something else is going to pop in the interim.    

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  On 1/8/2022 at 7:02 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I’d probably pay up myself to experience a retro stalled out 30+ event too. My biggest of all time is Jan96 with 26”. 

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My 31 in Jan 96 (philly) coast me 5K in consulting fees.  I couldn't afford that, but apparently I could.  A few inches down that morning as the storm was just getting going, and I was due to go to the airport to fly in Cincinatti.  The flight hadn't been cancelled, much to my alarm.  I just said fook it and pretended I couldn't get to the airport and they were cancelling all the flights.  In retrospect, worth every penny.

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  On 1/8/2022 at 7:05 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right. I live in Methuen right now...pretty standard KU here. Nothing extraordinary 

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I lived in Randolph at the time, moving to Westwood about 1 1/2 years after the blizzard.  We had the Army clear close to 4 feet of snow from the street because no plows could handle it.

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  On 1/8/2022 at 7:08 PM, 78Blizzard said:

I lived in Randolph at the time, moving to Westwood about 1 1/2 years after the blizzard.  We had the Army clear close to 4 feet of snow from the street because no plows could handle it.

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You probably had around 3 feet...those were likely drifts. Not here to argue, just MHO. I Think the 40"+ was a small area in N RI

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  On 1/8/2022 at 7:09 PM, ORH_wxman said:

That was a really nice looking euro run even if we didn’t get totally buried. You can see all the opportunities there. I do not think it will be a boring week of model watching coming up. 

 

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I don't either....was just saying past few days of OP runs were boring verbatim...FWIW.

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  On 1/8/2022 at 6:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I can't wait for scooter to distract me by typing out how he thinks my area looks good with one hand, while he steals my snow with the other. 

Neat trick-

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Don’t forget hammering home the point of regression while he waits for his snowblower to warm up so he can clear his latest foot.

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  On 1/8/2022 at 7:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You probably had around 3 feet...those were likely drifts. Not here to argue, just MHO. I Think the 40"+ was a small area in N RI

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Actually, N RI was the area that had some 50"+ reports.  Also, it was a very wet snow so drifting was minimal.  I know, because we had to shovel it from the driveway without a snowblower.  Luckily it was a small driveway.

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I'm gonna be interested in the EPS mean ...

This operational run has definitely taken a step toward "seeing" the potential in the flow beyond D6.  I'd be willing to hunch that future cycles tend to sans one or two of those entities between D 7 and 10, in lieu of more focus on one.  It's generating it's own neg interference. The 500 mb evolution centered on D7.5-8 is a gem for huge problems NYC --> NE, but its paltry surface reflection.  I don't have a problem with rapidity and repetition, ... but not with such deep features.  Those aren't exactly shallow troughs.

But the prior/leading EPS means have been pretty consistent with a signal that corroborates the notion for "D9" amplitude in general.  The 12z GEFs made a subtle trend toward more depth. 

The stasis in the elevated PNA ... and now we have a -NAO ?  interesting party arrival... west based, arrival.  Don't want it statically negative, but with the PNA leading and western ridge in place ( better than recently) this starts to suggest teleconnector convergence ( disparate indicators targeting the same region ) may be evolving. 

 

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