UnitedWx Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 5:39 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Ground is too warm after the mildest fall on record. Expand Don't forget the increasing sun angle 2 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:01 PM, Whineminster said: It really isn't though, it's basic science. Of course in big dog bombs it doesn't matter, but in marginal little critter events it does matter if you get some blowing and road cover versus just a wet road. k? Expand I’m talking about snow, and It’s all about rates..that’s it. Ground can be whatever temp, and if the rates are sufficient, it’s going to accumulate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 4:42 PM, Typhoon Tip said: The flow overall in that period is relaxed over the velocity saturation as of recent weeks ( and f'n winters for that matter). Expand It looks like your 582 line is in Trinidad and/or Tobago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 5:13 PM, MJO812 said: Big dog on the gfs Expand The operational GFS at day 12….that model can’t figure out what’s going to happen 12 hours from now let alone 12 days…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 5:42 PM, WinterWolf said: Oh god that’s really clown range. I was thinking it was for around day 9/next Monday. Lol..ya a few feet is ok Expand Does look active for awhile and we're on the cold side right now, could get interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:08 PM, WinterWolf said: I’m talking about snow, and It’s all about rates..that’s it. Ground can be whatever temp, and if the rates are sufficient, it’s going to accumulate. Expand You are correct, it is all about rates. But if we get a marginal light event.....and the ground is warm....It won't accumulate it'll just melt. K? Even in a big dog event you'll lose an inch or two to the warm ground. Frozen water melts above 32......at least where I live anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 F! ...I had my dates screwy on that early statement .. push 7-9 to 8 to 10. Maybe 11 day... So, yeah, it only underscores the "too early" aspect for a thread, but I do believe the period in question is above the standard model uncertainty for that range. It may also push up in time... There's definitely a signal out there. As far as the 12z details..that's obviously just an artifact of base-line potential, magnified too - as is typically the case at long leads. It's gonna be a wait I'm afraid. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Clipper D6? ...gotta watch for the tweener systems when bouncing the PNA index 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 5:11 PM, JC-CT said: Ah, F it. I imgur'd it. Expand The weenies in NW Ohio are bitter looking at that image. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:09 PM, snowman19 said: The operational GFS at day 12….that model can’t figure out what’s going to happen 12 hours from now let alone 12 days…. Expand This coming from the guy that said the last storm had no chance. Sit down troll 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 5:57 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I am so ready for you to jack on events again....at least I'll get the coastal front around for those. Expand So 6” from a Cstl front like the 6” you just got? I mean you did get 6”. Not like you sucked exhaust. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Euro cooking up a Miller b for next weekend. Id also watch that Thursday clipper. It has some room to amplify more on guidance. I know Tip and I have mentioned it a couple times but sometimes those are sneaky when everyone is looking ahead past that date. Low probability but you could see aloft how it wouldn’t take much to change it. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 The european guidance had a 985 mb low offshore at 216 hours out. Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:36 PM, CoastalWx said: So 6” from a Cstl front like the 6” you just got? I mean you did get 6”. Not like you sucked exhaust. Expand Or the 12-18" you got in Boxing day. But anyway, yes...I would rather the rush of a r/s line just to my se and man snow, as opposed to power and subby holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:42 PM, George001 said: The european guidance had a 985 mb low offshore at 216 hours out. Miller B? Expand You making a snowmap, or wait til tonight? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:45 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: You making A snowmap, or wait til tonight? Expand Need to see more support from the big 3 (European, Canadian, Navy). The Navy isn’t in range yet, I could extrapolate it though. Canadian I’d like to see jump on board. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:13 PM, Whineminster said: You are correct, it is all about rates. But if we get a marginal light event.....and the ground is warm....It won't accumulate it'll just melt. K? Even in a big dog event you'll lose an inch or two to the warm ground. Frozen water melts above 32......at least where I live anyway. Expand Yes sir…cuz “The rates” in a marginal(light) event are not very good, so hence the non accumulating nature with that event. But if the rates are good..it DOES NOT MATTER, could be 80 degrees the day before, and the snow will stick regardless. We had that exact thing happen here a few years ago in February, was 80 degrees here one day, barely 24 hrs later it was snowing and accumulating like the 80 degree day never happened! That’s all there is to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro cooking up a Miller b for next weekend. Id also watch that Thursday clipper. It has some room to amplify more on guidance. I know Tip and I have mentioned it a couple times but sometimes those are sneaky when everyone is looking ahead past that date. Low probability but you could see aloft how it wouldn’t take much to change it. Expand Scooter jackpot that run? Ray is all warm and fuzzy inside now ready to hammer out a blog post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:47 PM, George001 said: Need to see more support from the big 3 (European, Canadian, Navy). The Navy isn’t in range yet, I could extrapolate it though. Canadian I’d like to see jump on board. Expand I think you should extrapolate the Navy out 8 days and go for it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:47 PM, ORH_wxman said: Scooter jackpot that run? Ray is all warm and fuzzy inside now ready to hammer out a blog post. Expand I can't wait for scooter to distract me by typing out how he thinks my area looks good with one hand, while he steals my snow with the other. Neat trick- 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heat Miser Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:03 PM, UnitedWx said: Don't forget the increasing sun angle Expand The phrase "sun angle" warms my heart. If only I could wish it into effect. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:47 PM, WinterWolf said: Yes sir…cuz the “The rates” in a marginal(light) event are not very good, so hence the non accumulating nature with that event. But if the rates are good..it DOES NOT MATTER, could be 80 degrees the day before, and the snow will stick regardless. We had that exact thing happen here a few years ago in February, was 80 degrees here one day, barely 24 hrs later it was snowing and accumulating like the 80 degree day never happened! That’s all there is to it. Expand April fools storm was similar, not 80 but I think it got up to 60 the days before and all 25 inches stuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 I can honestly say that its more fun losing to NNE than SNE and it's not close....powder and subby holes are so boring. Much rather track the coastal front, rain/snow line, deal with paste and note the changing landscape as I travel to work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro cooking up a Miller b for next weekend. Id also watch that Thursday clipper. It has some room to amplify more on guidance. I know Tip and I have mentioned it a couple times but sometimes those are sneaky when everyone is looking ahead past that date. Low probability but you could see aloft how it wouldn’t take much to change it. Expand Good times ahead. Cutters are a thing of the past, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:50 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can't wait for scooter to distract me by typing out how he thinks my area looks good with one hand, while he steals my snow with the other. Neat trick- Expand You know what you need as the perfect revenge elixir ? A 1969 stalled out, cyclic snow band backing redux. Only have less S of Boston to really grind it in - 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:47 PM, George001 said: Need to see more support from the big 3 (European, Canadian, Navy). The Navy isn’t in range yet, I could extrapolate it though. Expand George, the NAVY model sucks ass! It’s certainly not part of any big 3, AT ALL. And Stop saying that, it makes you look like you have no idea what you’re talking about, and ignorant. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:55 PM, Typhoon Tip said: You know what you need as the perfect revenge elixir ? A 1969 stalled out, cyclic snow band backing redux. Only have less S of Boston to really get grind it in - Expand I'd pay hundreds...potentially a thousand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:53 PM, DavisStraight said: April fools storm was similar, not 80 but I think it got up to 60 the days before and all 25 inches stuck. Expand Yes, exactly my point. Thanks for chiming in pal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:24 PM, Typhoon Tip said: F! ...I had my dates screwy on that early statement .. push 7-9 to 8 to 10. Maybe 11 day... So, yeah, it only underscores the "too early" aspect for a thread, but I do believe the period in question is above the standard model uncertainty for that range. It may also push up in time... There's definitely a signal out there. As far as the 12z details..that's obviously just an artifact of base-line potential, magnified too - as is typically the case at long leads. It's gonna be a wait I'm afraid. Expand It's never too soon to start a thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/8/2022 at 6:56 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'd pay hundreds...potentially a thousand. Expand 50" for Ray, 4" for Kevin. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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