DavisStraight Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 15 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: My thought is you will have 3-4” of solid ice by Tuesday; pack padding Good base, now we just need another 30+ inches on top 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCD17 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 I've made my peace with the good possibility of not seeing my lawn again until March. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Long range GEFS look absolutely frigid with the trough moving into a favorable position. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 Snowfall totals coming out from the NWS. Gonna be interesting to make a map for this, should be close to what my nowcast updated map was earlier. Today is also the 5 year anniversary of the Jan 7th 2017 Nor'easter that brough high winds, heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions to southern new england. I posted some quick maps in the new england snow storm memories. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Long range GEFS look absolutely frigid with the trough moving into a favorable position. Just mentioned the look in the NY thread. Have to believe some relaxation here and there will deliver the goods during the period. Could be short horizon type modelled events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 16 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Long range GEFS look absolutely frigid with the trough moving into a favorable position. Clown range on the GFS for day 14 has a potential phaser. Not showing one, but ingredients look to be there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 I love how seymosnow and t4s landscaping constantly weenie each other. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I love how seymosnow and t4s landscaping constantly weenie each other. Like Kevin and me....weenie war rivals lol 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I love how seymosnow and t4s landscaping constantly weenie each other. i don't know what you're talking about P.S. we are holding an emergency press conference to discuss fake snowfall reports in front of the 4 Seasons at noon, all are welcome. 1 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 I'd really focus on D 9-ish first... heh. One notable under the radar .. if perhaps climate jab about this system today. "Over performance" relative to input parameters, is getting to be a rather regular distinction in winter times over the past decade, particularly the last 5 years. It seems harder to get anything to happen, but I bet you dimes to donuts ... events that break through average higher QP than similar storms of closest objective, comparative intensity, prior to the turn of the century... Perhaps asterisk 1995-1996. This isn't the first time in the last 10 years a 995 mb low put down 16's ... We all know this is true; I remember the collective discussion back in 2015 how we were handing out 12 like Pez dispensing, when 1950 - 2000, the "mean storm depth" ( if there is a such a metric ) was smaller. Perhaps we should make one. Now watch ..the study comes back dead balls on the same. .. You must forgive some of us. We were alive in hell decade. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I'd really focus on D 9-ish first... heh. One notable under the radar .. if perhaps climate jab about this system today. "Over performance" relative to input parameters, is getting to be a rather regular distinction in winter times over the past decade, particularly the last 5 years. It seems harder to get anything to happen, but I bet you dimes to donuts ... all storms average higher QP than storms of closest objective, comparative intensity prior to the turn of the century... Perhaps asterisk 1995-1996. This isn't the first time in the last 10 years a 995 mb low put down 16's ... We all know this is true; I remember the collective discussion back in 2015 how we were handing out 12 like Pez dispensing, when 1950 - 2000, the "mean storm depth" ( if there is a such a metric ) was smaller. Perhaps we should make one. Now watch ..the study comes back dead balls on the same. .. You must forgive some of us. We were alive in hell decade. Couple counterpoints: 1. Measuring snow in the past may have been more about final snow depth than total accumulated snow. 2. We have way more observations nowadays than in decades past because of the internet, twitter, and weather forums etc. If we only had a few underreporting stations... NY Central Park, Logan etc... a lot of us would never know when places like Mt. Tolland randomly hit double digits. My suspicion is that it hasn't changed so much overall - we're just better at detecting the weenie jackpot areas. It's also possible that storms are a little more juiced up because of a slightly warmer climate. I'm just not so sure we would recognize this without statistical study. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 This storm is like 2/7/03, 1/22/14, 2/8/21. Think those dates are right. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, eduggs said: Couple counterpoints: 1. Measuring snow in the past may have been more about final snow depth than total accumulated snow. 2. We have way more observations nowadays than in decades past because of the internet, twitter, and weather forums etc. If we only had a few underreporting stations... NY Central Park, Logan etc... a lot of us would never know when places like Mt. Tolland randomly hit double digits. My suspicion is that it hasn't changed so much overall - we're just better at detecting the weenie jackpot areas. It's also possible that storms are a little more juiced up because of a slightly warmer climate. I'm just not so sure we would recognize this without statistical study. Mm nah, even accounting for these nuances in measuring techniques ... they don't account for rare 6" back whence, compared to pretty regular one foot occurrences now. ..I mean, not to suppress your notion. I'm just speaking anecdotally ... Although, I have read that quantitative rain has increased globally anyway so there's that - too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: This storm is like 2/7/03, 1/22/14, 2/8/21. Think those dates are right. 2/7/21..close enough 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: Mm nah, even accounting for these nuances in measuring techniques ... they don't account for rare 6" back whence, compared to pretty regular one foot occurrences now. ..I mean, not to suppress your notion. I'm just speaking anecdotally ... Although, I have read that quantitative rain has increased globally anyway so there's that - too I think there’s truth to both theories. We know for a fact that even in places where 6 hourly measurements were occurring 40-50 years ago (like ORH for example), the number of large storms has increased quite a bit. So we can’t just blame it on measuring technique. But our ability to observe snowfall remotely has increased incredibly since even 30-40 years ago so narrow jackpots are much easier to find/identify now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 5 hours ago, The 4 Seasons said: Snowfall totals coming out from the NWS. Gonna be interesting to make a map for this, should be close to what my nowcast updated map was earlier. Today is also the 5 year anniversary of the Jan 7th 2017 Nor'easter that brough high winds, heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions to southern new england. I posted some quick maps in the new england snow storm memories. That wasn’t that memorable of a storm here. Had a total of 9.25” in that. It came in two parts..Friday and Saturday from what I have written down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 It’s not on the OP runs yet but the European and Canadian ensembles show what looks like a Miller B around the 16th. The upcoming pattern is looking great, but I’m rooting for Miller Bs instead of Miller As. Miller As can be nice, but it seems like most of our big storms (12+) are Miller Bs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Yea, I know the pattern looks decent, but guidance verbatim is relatively boring right now and has been for a few days in the long range. Will get killed for saying this, but oh well... I know, I have 9" halfway through winter, so I shouldn't complain. I get it...lots more regression due now that Braintree got 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Holy schnikies some house creaking gusts. Few and far between, like the rogue wave. 7.9/2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Right on cue, the OP Euro makes things interesting again....unfortunately, that has inverted trough written all over it IMHO.....time for the onside kick in Methuen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Cosmic dildo penetration exhibit #4331434334338 from the past several years...this terd in the punch bowl out west prevents what looked like a sure fire phase here...instead, this run plays pin the pretend snow on the inverted donkey. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 1/5/2022 at 12:30 PM, SJonesWX said: hmmm, who do i believe? snooze fest through January 16th....tried to tell 'em 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I know the pattern looks decent, but guidance verbatim is relatively boring right now and has been for a few days in the long range. Will get killed for saying this, but oh well... I know, I have 9" halfway through winter, so I shouldn't complain. I get it...lots more regression due now that Braintree got 12". Yeah, this last storm was very disappointing for us... and now frigid and dry. Tough stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Ah the sound of crunchy snow, I missed ya 12⁰ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Cosmic dildo penetration exhibit #4331434334338 from the past several years...this terd in the punch bowl out west prevents what looked like a sure fire phase here...instead, this run plays pin the pretend snow on the inverted donkey. Oh au contraire mon fraire 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Ah the sound of crunchy snow, I missed ya 12⁰ Tough run in that cold this morning. Layers and layers and still biting at 10.2 with strong wind . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Tough run in that cold this morning. Layers and layers and still biting at 10.2 with strong wind . We Arctic. Even though temps may rise above freezing tomorrow and some of us are not under an advisory, remember the ground is below freezing and initial rain will freeze. Icy conditions tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 Yeah this cold personally sucks for me right now…bad timing. I really want to stay inside curled up in a warm ball in bed but chicken duties call. Looks like a pretty cold stretch potentially with multiple strong cold shots being modeled with H5 support. It’s going to be a long month if it ends up cold and mostly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 5.7°/1° Pack is at 6” with the bottom 2” being solid glacier. Hopefully that’s enough to insulate the roots of the young pawpaw trees. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Yeah this cold personally sucks for me right now…bad timing. I really want to stay inside curled up in a warm ball in bed but chicken duties call. Looks like a pretty cold stretch potentially with multiple strong cold shots being modeled with H5 support. It’s going to be a long month if it ends up cold and mostly dry. Hope the EPS is right with a snowy next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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