PhineasC Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 2:53 AM, Ginx snewx said: Bet they start as snow Balt Dc Expand I could see that in Baltimore, but then they will have QPF issues. Just so many ways to fail down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 2:54 AM, PhineasC said: I could see that in Baltimore, but then they will have QPF issues. Just so many ways to fail down there. Expand The ICON modeled snow amounts (derived by the model…not vendor algorithms) has been 3-6”. I’ve seen that model underestimate amounts before, but I agree with you that I’d take the under on most of these clown maps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 A lot of those positive depth change graphics show 6-10” down there in the max zone. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 It’s 59 in RIC, now 49 at BWI/DCA, 59 at WAL. If I were one of the weenies there I wouldn’t have a warm and fuzzy feel. My call is no one in the cities of RIC/DCA/BWI exceeds 4 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 2:12 AM, George001 said: I still think Boston is getting more snow than DC from this one. Im convinced we see another big north shift tomorrow, the trough looks like it’s more neutral than the guidance currently had it. That is a really good sign. Expand I read what you wrote earlier today. The NAM shift for 00z was absolutely jarring, to say nothing of the SREF stuff. i know the odds are against it with what is on the table but… I still think significant snow is possible as far NW as a NYC/Norwich/Warwick/Plymouth line. Unfortunately I live significantly NW of that line and it’s highly unlikely I will see much more than an inch or two and that’s if the NW trend continues and verifies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:08 AM, IowaStorm05 said: I read what you wrote earlier today. The NAM shift for 00z was absolutely jarring, to say nothing of the SREF stuff. i know the odds are against it with what is on the table but… I still think significant snow is possible as far NW as a NYC/Norwich/Warwick line. Unfortunately I live significantly NW of that line and it’s highly unlikely I will see much more than an inch or two and that’s if the NW trend continues and verifies. Expand Where are you? Tolland? I'm in Plainville. If I see a dusting.. I'd be surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:08 AM, IowaStorm05 said: I read what you wrote earlier today. The NAM shift for 00z was absolutely jarring, to say nothing of the SREF stuff. i know the odds are against it with what is on the table but… I still think significant snow is possible as far NW as a NYC/Norwich/Warwick line. Unfortunately I live significantly NW of that line and it’s highly unlikely I will see much more than an inch or two and that’s if the NW trend continues and verifies. Expand You probably don’t even see that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:07 AM, weathafella said: It’s 59 in RIC, now 49 at BWI/DCA, 59 at WAL. If I were one of the weenies there I wouldn’t have a warm and fuzzy feel. My call is no one in the cities of RIC/DCA/BWI exceeds 4 inches. Expand Snow depth change products are all around 4 to 5 inches for those cities. Might be better between RIC and DCA, like CHO, where 6+ is being hit a little harder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:10 AM, Snowcrazed71 said: Where are you? Tolland? I'm in Plainville. If I see a dusting.. I'd be surprised Expand Willimantic! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:08 AM, IowaStorm05 said: I read what you wrote earlier today. The NAM shift for 00z was absolutely jarring, to say nothing of the SREF stuff. i know the odds are against it with what is on the table but… I still think significant snow is possible as far NW as a NYC/Norwich/Warwick line. Unfortunately I live significantly NW of that line and it’s highly unlikely I will see much more than an inch or two and that’s if the NW trend continues and verifies. Expand Better chance of seeing this tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 ACY is 47F currently and has a WSW with 4-6" expected beginning around 3-4 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:10 AM, Snowcrazed71 said: Where are you? Tolland? I'm in Plainville. If I see a dusting.. I'd be surprised Expand He’s in windham or willimantic I think. None of us are seeing anything. If we lived in New Haven or Groton maybe we’d see a few flakes. But not up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 funny about this current storm and my likelihood of moving to north georgia, there's a WWA for the area I'm looking at planting flag, while we're hoping whale farts blow a dusting at us, thought that was funny 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:12 AM, 78Blizzard said: ACY is 47F currently and has a WSW with 4-6" expected beginning around 3-4 am. Expand It's 45/35 now and dropping off pretty quickly, especially the dew point. Plenty of time to cool down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:13 AM, WinterWolf said: He’s in windham or willimantic I think. None of us are seeing anything. If we lived in New Haven or Groton maybe we’d see a few flakes. But not up this way. Expand Odds are you’re right… but all it would take is a 30 to 50 mile shift northwest overnight… it’s showing signs of its potency already and that can make it tuck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:08 AM, IowaStorm05 said: I read what you wrote earlier today. The NAM shift for 00z was absolutely jarring, to say nothing of the SREF stuff. i know the odds are against it with what is on the table but… I still think significant snow is possible as far NW as a NYC/Norwich/Warwick/Plymouth line. Unfortunately I live significantly NW of that line and it’s highly unlikely I will see much more than an inch or two and that’s if the NW trend continues and verifies. Expand Yeah it’s no guarantee but this reminds me of last December where Binghamton NY was forecasted like 2-4 the night before and ended up with 40. It’s a different pattern so it won’t get that far north and even jackpot areas aren’t even getting half that, but I’m still optimistic that it can get far enough north to give my area a plowable snowfall. I do still think Friday will be the bigger storm, and that one looks like it will be the opposite, farther north areas do better with rain snow lines being an issue for coastal areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:30 AM, George001 said: Yeah it’s no guarantee but this reminds me of last December where Binghamton NY was forecasted like 2-4 the night before and ended up with 40. It’s a different pattern so it won’t get that far north and even jackpot areas aren’t even getting half that, but I’m still optimistic that it can get far enough north to give my area a plowable snowfall. I do still think Friday will be the bigger storm, and that one looks like it will be the opposite, farther north areas do better with rain snow lines being an issue for coastal areas. Expand The F*cki** 00z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:43 AM, IowaStorm05 said: The F*cki** 00z GFS Expand ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:43 AM, IowaStorm05 said: The F*cki** 00z GFS Expand Tick north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 GFS has 2" about up to Weymouth, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:52 AM, 78Blizzard said: GFS has 2" about up to Weymouth, lol. Expand Not with that sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 I will say this may be the only storm I’ve ever seen with a great H5 RH look overhead and dry at 700. That’s rather strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:55 AM, CoastalWx said: Not with that sounding. Expand Love the -35 dewpoint in the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:56 AM, CoastalWx said: I will saw this may be the only storm I’ve ever seen with a great H5 RH look overhead and dry at 700. That’s rather strange. Expand Hallucinations are going to be epic tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:57 AM, ORH_wxman said: Hallucinations are going to be epic tomorrow. Expand Maybe Scooter can bag an OES band and still end up at 2 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:57 AM, ORH_wxman said: Hallucinations are going to be epic tomorrow. Expand Well at least something is epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 They've already started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IowaStorm05 Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:48 AM, MJO812 said: Tick north Expand On 1/3/2022 at 3:56 AM, CoastalWx said: I will saw this may be the only storm I’ve ever seen with a great H5 RH look overhead and dry at 700. That’s rather strange. Expand Can that fill in? That’s what the GFS kind of looks like. It’s potency forces it further north and west than it’s supposed to go, but a shallow dry layer eats into the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 3, 2022 Share Posted January 3, 2022 On 1/3/2022 at 3:57 AM, ORH_wxman said: Hallucinations are going to be epic tomorrow. Expand OKX radar showing 35 dBZ over Tblizz while BOX radar has nothing until you get south of BID. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now