SouthCoastMA Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 GEM looks decent, unless its also suffering from the same qpf algorithm issue with dry air at the mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 hi-res Canadian with a brutal cutoff around the islands. that's also a good possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 23 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Snowpack gone. The most efficient pack-eater I’ve seen this area, this time of the year. Good news is it’s been replaced by grass—green grass. So could be worse. Looks and feels like late March. Not a shock considering it’s looked and felt like this since Mowvember with very few exceptions. Weenies rather stay glued to comp monitors and models rather than take a walk outside and see what Mother Nature is saying. I still have a 4 inch pack here. Snowing decently now too. Could be worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, PhineasC said: I still have a 4 inch pack here. Snowing decently now too. Could be worse. It’s all relative of course. Under a foot all the way up there this time of the year is weak. You have deep winter climo so you’ll be fine going forward, regardless of the pattern. My comment was more about what’s transpired year to date. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Just now, jbenedet said: It’s all relative of course. Under a foot all the way up there this time of the year is weak. You have deep winter climo so you’ll be fine going forward, regardless of the pattern. My comment was more about what’s transpired year to date. This was nothing compared to last years Xmas grinch that wiped out feet of pack from NYC TO N MAINE, in one 12 hr period. That’s much more impressive than this soup we’ve all been in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 April in latter December-early January...I haven't seen the sun since Monday...going to be a week lol 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I’d rather a Grinch then a week of this IV anti freeze to your veins shit. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 How many pages on an iffy maybe few inches for a small area of New England? Longer range looking good though and that’s all I care about today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: How many pages on an iffy maybe few inches for a small area of New England? Longer range looking good though and that’s all I care about today. I’m more fascinated at this short term bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Lot of anger, Hate to see it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Yeah regardless on whether it touches any of us, that was a lot of model correction pretty close in. Not a good showing of the models frankly. #NovaScotiaStrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 The models at 500 are getting closer and closer to a phase with the northern stream, which would drastically increase the ceiling of this storm if it happens. The extremely powerful southern energy is already producing a big storm farther south on its own, but if the northern stream phases in? That would cause the low to undergo rapid cyclogenesis, and the low would indeed move north and west as it deepens, in my opinion more than any model is projecting. This close in I’m looking at the obs, and it looks like the precip out west is more expansive than the models suggested, which indicates possible initialization errors, with the models underestimating the strength of the southern low. This is why I don’t think even areas as far north as southern NH and Maine are out of the woods just yet (for a couple inches, not a big storm, due to fast flow there would be a limit). The earlier than expected deepening of the southern low and the slightly slower progression of it would give the northern stream a little bit more time to phase in, which would cause the trough to go negative, and cause the precip shield to expand more over all of eastern mass. This would result in many areas expected to get a coating or even nothing getting hammered with heavy snow, possibly over a foot. It is no guarantee, but I do think the probability of an earlier phase is much higher than the models suggest right now based on obs and the pattern in place. All it would take is one 30-40 mile adjustment north, which isn’t much at all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Euro slams DC. May clip cape with something decent? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NotSureWeather Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 TWC changed my area, EWB, from maybe an inch to 1-3”. I just want some snow please and thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 This reminds me of Feb 5-6, 2010, the storm that first cemented "confluence" as a dirty word in my winter lexicon. I expect to smell the snow, but see nary a flake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 I'm still at my sister's house and it was beautiful here on Friday afternoon. I drove along the Delaware River at Pond Edy. This morning was ridiculously warm, 50F. But it's slowly getting colder. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: This was nothing compared to last years Xmas grinch that wiped out feet of pack from NYC TO N MAINE, in one 12 hr period. That’s much more impressive than this soup we’ve all been in. That was a good one. I still think this tops it though. There’s no way to tell for sure but my area had a shit ton of ice within the 4-6” snowpack that was here. Probably another 0.5” LE. It was a rock solid base that was not in any way captured by the volume of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Decent swipe early tomorrow down on the Cape on the Euro. Another shift to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 4 minutes ago, jbenedet said: That was a good one. I still think this tops it though. There’s no way to tell for sure but my area had a shit ton of ice within the 4-6” snowpack that was here. Probably another 0.5” LE. It was a rock solid base that was not in any way captured by the volume of snow on the ground. I lost 30” in days last year. I’ve only lost a couple inches so far with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Minus the clouds, not a bad day. Upper 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 minute ago, dendrite said: I lost 30” in days last year. I’ve only lost a couple inches so far with this. Ya, that was my point to him. Last years grinch melted pack like a flame thrower. While this soup misty fog is hideous, there’s No comparison imo to last years grinch in terms of melting ability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 16 minutes ago, dendrite said: I lost 30” in days last year. I’ve only lost a couple inches so far with this. Makes sense for your area, with the elevation and away from the coast. Cutters would do a lot more damage than a persistently easterly fetch off the relatively warm Gulf of Maine. Not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Is 18z the run where NAMMY looses it's shite, we all go nuts, only to be let down a couple of hours later? Normally that's about 36hrs before go-time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Right on schedule arrives the mid season break down of the leading ENSO signal ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 Radar shows sn but getting nothing Sent from my SM-G981U1 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I’m more fascinated at this short term bust. I wish I had more runs of the EPS to look at but IAD mean snowfall went from 2 to 6 inches in 18 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 2 hours ago, jbenedet said: It’s all relative of course. Under a foot all the way up there this time of the year is weak. You have deep winter climo so you’ll be fine going forward, regardless of the pattern. My comment was more about what’s transpired year to date. How those warm SSTs for the mid Atlantic, Virginia, Maryland, NJ coast? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Right on schedule arrives the mid season break down of the leading ENSO signal ... Wow that has the coldest air in the hemisphere over the Carolinas.Wow that has the coldest air in the hemisphere over the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 2, 2022 Share Posted January 2, 2022 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Minus the clouds, not a bad day. Upper 40s. Lovely mud dank. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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