dryslot Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, PhineasC said: Yeah, and that one is starting out colder and further east than the upcoming one did at this time range. Not worried about it yet. Models are still flopping a bit on the upcoming system. Models today are amplifying that s/w further SW then some of the other runs which is allowing the low at the surface to track further west, Guess it will ultimately come down to where that ends up happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 I feel like we're due for a cutter period. The mean longwave trof should shift more towards the center of the country. That would finally get the midwest their snow and the Lakes region their lake effect. Probably more mixed events for east coast ski country. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 if the 1/7 storm verified as the Euro showed..that would likely send the remaining holdouts running towards the black pit of melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 The minute Tip started the thread , the threat ended 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Wow Pope full melt, hate to see it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Wait, What? I thread was started? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 EPS looks pretty nice in the extended....that's the best it's looked in a while. Trended toward GEFS a bit. @CoastalWxwould definitely like that western ridge anomaly max sitting over Idaho/Montana. PV actually gets shoved into SE Canada. Probably a legit arctic outbreak if that look verified. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS looks pretty nice in the extended....that's the best it's looked in a while. Trended toward GEFS a bit. @CoastalWxwould definitely like that western ridge anomaly max sitting over Idaho/Montana. PV actually gets shoved into SE Canada. Probably a legit arctic outbreak if that look verified. We like. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Here's 5-day mean D9-13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Tip will like the lower heights in the SE later in the period....no Hadley cell geopotential medium compression for you.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 47 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: if the 1/7 storm verified as the Euro showed..that would likely send the remaining holdouts running towards the black pit of melt. People are just straight up not talking about that threat now . Like if they don’t talk about it, it won’t happen as modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS looks pretty nice in the extended....that's the best it's looked in a while. Trended toward GEFS a bit. Somebody should tally how many times that's been said in the past two months. You're not wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, eduggs said: Somebody should tally how many times that's been said in the past two months. You're not wrong though. Yeah I'd wait until we're inside 10 days. The good news though is that the western ridge starts building pretty quickly by D9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Will and Scott giving me reasons to look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1/7 still on the table, especially interior. I’ve looked past that as that really never looked good except at 00z last night lol. If it happens, wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 1/7 still on the table,r especially interior. I’ve looked past that as that really never look ed good except at 00z last night lol. If it hapⁿ1s spens, wonderful. After Christmas, after the New Year, now after the 7th, you certainly have the looking past down pat. J/k 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: After Christmas, after the New Year, now after the 7th, you certainly have the looking past down pat. J/k Nothing I can do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 1/7 still on the table, especially interior. I’ve looked past that as that really never looked good except at 00z last night lol. If it happens, wonderful. Damn giving up already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 18z NAM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Wow, I am back from a few hours of errands, and the euro has caved to the GFS on both the mid-Atlantic wave and next week's storm. Wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'd wait until we're inside 10 2.5 days. The good news though is that the western ridge starts building pretty quickly by D9 Couldn't agree more. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 12 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Damn giving up already No, if it happens great...but I'm not getting my hopes up here. Basically, I don't care lol. I do like the look after day 10 and it finally may be showing signs of something fun. Lets hope that stays. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Um... It's like rinse and repeat. 7 days out and some people are riding the latest model run like it's going to happen just like that. lololololol. Some people will NEVER learn. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Pattern change begins in 4 weeks, complete in 6. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 hours ago, Ginx snewx said: A PD 1 solution might send Ray over the edge permanently. Just furiously writing novels on RNA and lashing out at everybody and anyone. 3 hours ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Wife calling from Uganda wants to known when it will be safe for her and the kids to come back home…as Ray sucks on his car’s exhaust pipe in his garage after printing out his final arrow driven snow map. LOL I'm comfortably numb...not even viewing guidance until I am confident in a favorable outcome. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 TBH, some mid atlantic snow would be a validation for my outlook, as I didn't predict a terrible season there. So far, this year reminds me of 2018-2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 FWIW… I know this is going to be weenied into oblivion but the CFS that’s available on Pivotal has been looking better for January… a couple of warm ups on there in the long range but also plenty of cold and at least some potential for not everything to be shredded. Just basing this on the 500mb anomaly maps… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 minute ago, bristolri_wx said: FWIW… I know this is going to be weenied into oblivion but the CFS that’s available on Pivotal has been looking better for January… a couple of warm ups on there in the long range but also plenty of cold and at least some potential for not everything to be shredded. Just basing this on the 500mb anomaly maps… I said that yesterday, CFS is very cold....AER in house model is, too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I said that yesterday, CFS is very cold....AER in house model is, too. Ha sorry missed that. The worst part of this is looking at the CFS for a hopeful outcome lol. Not much of a confidence booster but you take what you get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said: Ha sorry missed that. The worst part of this is looking at the CFS for a hopeful outcome lol. Not much of a confidence booster but you take what you get. CFS actually nailed December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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