leo2000 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 3:29 AM, Typhoon Tip said: Basically … a general shit winter with an interlude or two of tacit favorability La Nina’s are supposed to be front loaded winters. Yet another ENSO climate failure … It’d be really funny if the winter is back loaded or even mid Expand Winters are usually back loaded now anyways. Front loaded winters seem to be a thing of the past. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 3:43 AM, Typhoon Tip said: Which is still abysmally mank infested misery outside. The Great Winter Of Zero Redeeming Value. At this rate I’d rather it 50 above normal. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/30/2021 at 11:07 PM, weathafella said: It will by 11 tonight Expand AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 3:50 AM, leo2000 said: Winters are usually back loaded now anyways. Front loaded winters seem to be a thing of the past. Expand Does seem that way. But I also wonder how common they ever really were? Tempted to say 300 yr mean is 1::4 or 5 but the last 10 yrs have blown up multiple signals regardless. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 4:02 AM, Typhoon Tip said: Does seem that way. But I also wonder how common they ever really were? Tempted to say 300 yr mean is 1::4 or 5 but the last 10 yrs have blown up multiple signals regardless. Expand In what way exactly. Are you referring to the Hadley cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 6:03 AM, SnoSki14 said: In what way exactly. Are you referring to the Hadley cell. Expand He's always referring to the Hadley Cell 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 00z EURO says hello next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 3:29 AM, Typhoon Tip said: Basically … a general shit winter with an interlude or two of tacit favorability La Nina’s are supposed to be front loaded winters. Yet another ENSO climate failure … It’d be really funny if the winter is back loaded or even mid Expand Actually, east based la Nina events are not front loaded. Modoki are. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 7:03 AM, yoda said: 00z EURO says hello next weekend Expand Legit threat IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Was wondering why no comments... 0z Euro with a nice looking northern stream system next Friday GFS and GEFS/EPS have it too Actually something to track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 7:05 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Legit threat IMO. Expand Doesn’t mean it isn’t legit, but the model will lose it imo at some point over the next day or two. But nice to see at the moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 7:13 AM, wxsniss said: Was wondering why no comments... 0z Euro with a nice looking northern stream system next Friday GFS and GEFS/EPS have it too Actually something to track. Expand No comments bc its 230am on NYE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Lots of melts this week as we drop like flies....I went a few days ago, now Tip.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Gfs is starting to latch on to the euro storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 7:38 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Lots of melts this week as we drop like flies....I went a few days ago, now Tip.... Expand F**k this f**kin s**t winter can burn in hell like the piece of s**t it is. The 00Z Euro looks nice. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 7:03 AM, yoda said: 00z EURO says hello next weekend Expand 2 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 As much as I generally dislike this kind of weather approaching peak winter climo, I'm actually a little relieved that intense cold has held off. New England is an energy crisis waiting to happen. Since we seem to have a complex about building gas pipelines directly from producing states, we have to ship all our gas via LNG carriers. There are no domestic LNG builders, so much of our gas gets shipped via international carriers from the Caribbean. The LNG facility in Everett usually receives 6-10 shipments of gas each winter to offer adequate supply for home heating and electricity, but thus far this winter they've only received one, presumably because the crisis in Europe is offering much higher prices. Add to that the shutdown of Pilgrim a few years ago and New England is one 2018 style cold snap away from having a Texas-sized blackout problem on their hands. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 11:48 AM, Hoth said: As much as I generally dislike this kind of weather approaching peak winter climo, I'm actually a little relieved that intense cold has held off. New England is an energy crisis waiting to happen. Since we seem to have a complex about building gas pipelines directly from producing states, we have to ship all our gas via LNG carriers. There are no domestic LNG builders, so much of our gas gets shipped via international carriers from the Caribbean. The LNG facility in Everett usually receives 6-10 shipments of gas each winter to offer adequate supply for home heating and electricity, but thus far this winter they've only received one, presumably because the crisis in Europe is offering much higher prices. Add to that the shutdown of Pilgrim a few years ago and New England is one 2018 style cold snap away from having a Texas-sized blackout problem on their hands. Expand Well...Neversource has warned us that this may happen. Fine with me, it keeps calls coming in for generator installs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 12:01 PM, UnitedWx said: Well...Neversource has warned us that this may happen. Fine with me, it keeps calls coming in for generator installs! Expand What's the backlog for a generator these days? My cousin was looking to install one, but there was a solid six month wait, so he gave up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 6z Euro is real cold for Sunday. GFS and NAM tickled warmer. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 12:13 PM, powderfreak said: 6z Euro is real cold for Sunday. GFS and NAM tickled warmer. Expand Some Sierra cement. Paste job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 11:48 AM, Hoth said: As much as I generally dislike this kind of weather approaching peak winter climo, I'm actually a little relieved that intense cold has held off. New England is an energy crisis waiting to happen. Since we seem to have a complex about building gas pipelines directly from producing states, we have to ship all our gas via LNG carriers. There are no domestic LNG builders, so much of our gas gets shipped via international carriers from the Caribbean. The LNG facility in Everett usually receives 6-10 shipments of gas each winter to offer adequate supply for home heating and electricity, but thus far this winter they've only received one, presumably because the crisis in Europe is offering much higher prices. Add to that the shutdown of Pilgrim a few years ago and New England is one 2018 style cold snap away from having a Texas-sized blackout problem on their hands. Expand Why haven't we heard anything about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 12:04 PM, Hoth said: What's the backlog for a generator these days? My cousin was looking to install one, but there was a solid six month wait, so he gave up. Expand It completely depends on size and brand. Most units I've ordered have come in within six weeks. I do have one that has been on order for two months and still waiting, however its supposed to be in soon. Probably once we actually have snow on the ground 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 This does not blow chunks. Let's have a quick hitter, 8"-12", with Tsnow: 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 The pacific isn’t our only problem when it comes to the cold this season. Check out our backyard—the Gulf of Maine. Looking and feeling a lot more like Northern Ireland Climo. A northeast fetch spells rain for a chunk of us with SST’s in the mid to upper 40’s. This going to be a tall bar to get over for the SNE folks (me included) in less-than-great setups/patterns. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 2:07 PM, jbenedet said: The pacific isn’t our only problem when it comes to the cold this season. Check out our backyard—the Gulf of Maine. Looking and feeling a lot more like Northern Ireland Climo. A northeast fetch spells rain for a chunk of us with SST’s in the mid to upper 40’s. This going to be a tall bar to get over for the SNE folks (me included) in less-than-great setups/patterns. Expand SSTs off the east coast are pretty meaningless, if anything prefer warmer temps for enhanced baroclinicity 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 31, 2021 Author Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 2:09 PM, qg_omega said: SSTs off the east coast are pretty meaningless, if anything prefer warmer temps for enhanced baroclinicity Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 2:07 PM, jbenedet said: The pacific isn’t our only problem when it comes to the cold this season. Check out our backyard—the Gulf of Maine. Looking and feeling a lot more like Northern Ireland Climo. A northeast fetch spells rain for a chunk of us with SST’s in the mid to upper 40’s. This going to be a tall bar to get over for the SNE folks (me included) in less-than-great setups/patterns. Expand Agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 2:09 PM, qg_omega said: SSTs off the east coast are pretty meaningless, if anything prefer warmer temps for enhanced baroclinicity Expand “Meaningless”. Most live in the coastal plain. Of course this isn’t meaningless for them. Outside of the cp, I think it’s an important factor in a line —extreme southern Maine down to New London CT—ish. If there isn’t prevailing CAD/WAD we take on the in-situ airmass and that’s predominated by the GOM. This affects surface temps at the margin in many critical ways that modeling doesn’t fully capture—hence the extremely tight gradient in New England climo. The snow capitals like Burlington and the Whites—yes I agree that this could be fantastic for the far interior. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 On 12/31/2021 at 1:22 PM, Ginx snewx said: Why haven't we heard anything about this. Expand Dunno, but tail risk isn't often a popular topic of conversation. I imagine folks in Texas weren't discussing their potential risk prior to last year either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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