CoastalWx Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 12 minutes ago, weathafella said: It will by 11 tonight Agree. In the end I’m sure it will be a few OES streamers into the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 hours ago, CoastalWx said: GEFS are a pants tent. Just looked lol. Thought we said that about this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Thought we said that about this week. Good from far but far from good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 Any favorite pattern change lol is over before it even begins according to these guys. Eric Webb @webberweather · 4h I generally agree. While the GEFS has been overzealous in the medium range of late trying to bring back the GOA ridge, the lower freq evolution of the troposphere & stratosphere suggest a prototypical late winter Nina +NAM/-PNA state returns by the end of Jan-early Feb Quote Tweet Dr Simon Lee @SimonLeeWx · 5h With the N Pacific ridge migrating poleward, GEFS spies the onset of the Alaskan Ridge regime for early-mid January -- bringing colder weather more widely to the US & ending a potentially record-setting Arctic Low regime. However: the Arctic Low regime then comes straight back... twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/sta… Show this thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 The GFS can’t even get it right at 48 hours but I’m sure it has late January figured out. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 7 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It just seems common sense to me that an NAO block in conjunction with a record RNA pulse could do that, anyway....I mean, we have always had certain patterns more prone to compression. And what we do know is 1) HC didn't seem to constructively interfere with ENSO last year 2) It doesn't seem to be deconstructively interfering this year. Just some casual observations. Well... compounding factors... There's no one-size-fits-all index controlling the number of inches we're not getting, but are taking LOL But I completely jive with the bold, sure. Any -NAO biased over the western limb of the domain space .. yup, that can overwhelm by compressing the heights south through the Lakes and Mid Atlantic. That will speed up the flow. Remove that and the flow is still fast, though. It has been... regardless of solar, ENSO, PDO ... dogs and cats living together. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 30, 2021 Share Posted December 30, 2021 For what it's worth the GEF based telecon spread is cold UNfavorable from the AO/NAO, and given that they share domain space, and appear to be moving in tandem, might be a strengthening argument that they are coupled into the same forcing. That would materialize as a negative height anomaly tending to encompass/ lap over both. My guess is between the NE Canada. However, the PNA ...as others have surmised by graphics, is concertedly entering a modal change from -2 SD with some members even modestly positive by as near as D10. Note, we don't need to have the mode diametric before restoring events begin taking place,... If by indirection, this might be cross-guidance "nodding" ... ( at least ) wrt to some of the Euro products. I'm also not sure the EPO won't pop negative either, given to the EAMT relay way out there. It seems that could happen at any time in the next 2 weeks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Pretty large jump south on the ICON too. It was one of the more wound up solutions at 12z. The GFS, NAM and ICON all made substantial shifts south. This is a bit more interesting. The ICON though, I've never seen a model do such a shift in 6 hours. 12z first, 18z second image. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The GFS, NAM and ICON all made substantial shifts south. This is a bit more interesting. The ICON though, I've never seen a model do such a shift in 6 hours. 12z first, 18z second image. Well, it’s a pretty shitty model. I mean, the UKMET routinely takes lows off the FL coast to Portugal just six hours after riding into the GOM. And that’s the second best model according to the mets. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: The GFS, NAM and ICON all made substantial shifts south. This is a bit more interesting. The ICON though, I've never seen a model do such a shift in 6 hours. 12z first, 18z second image. Yeah... it shows the sensitivity - it seems endemic to fast flows to do this. It's almost as though a more standard flow rate is more resistant to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 4 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Well, it’s a pretty shitty model. I mean, the UKMET routinely takes lows off the FL coast to Portugal just six hours after riding into the GOM. And that’s the second best model according to the mets. LOL Yeah I have no idea on the ICON scores but the NAM and GFS shifts were noticeable too. Might be able to score a net gain out of the cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 But, but, but if I believe hard enough, the ICON will be right. Right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Congrats Richmond on the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Thought we said that about this week. Said that for several weeks. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 A net gain is less then .50" qpf and temps and dews in the 30's, That's what we are left with in this crap pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Well, it’s a pretty shitty model. I mean, the UKMET routinely takes lows off the FL coast to Portugal just six hours after riding into the GOM. And that’s the second best model according to the mets. LOL Ha, Yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, PhineasC said: Well, it’s a pretty shitty model. I mean, the UKMET routinely takes lows off the FL coast to Portugal just six hours after riding into the GOM. And that’s the second best model according to the mets. LOL Not according to some stats. Maybe it nails 500 heights over the Galápagos Islands, but the surface results here leave something to be desired. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not according to some stats. Maybe it nails 500 heights over the Galápagos Islands, but the surface results here leave something to be desired. I think the British royal family is releasing those H5 scores. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: The GFS, NAM and ICON all made substantial shifts south. This is a bit more interesting. The ICON though, I've never seen a model do such a shift in 6 hours. 12z first, 18z second image. Beware the off runs this season. They’ve been brutally bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 14 minutes ago, dryslot said: Said that for several weeks. im at the point where I don’t believe anything. I want to see actual ground truth on the ground. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: im at the point where I don’t believe anything. I want to see actual ground truth on the ground. The long range stuff is fun, but it's not worth getting emotional over. The skill still just isn't there yet...especially when it comes to sensible weather. I salute those that do these forecasts and outlooks so we can keep pushing the science forward, but if it isn't inside 5 days I really don't care. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not according to some stats. Maybe it nails 500 heights over the Galápagos Islands, but the surface results here leave something to be desired. The UKMET is best near outer space. I heard the ISS uses it to dodge extreme upper-atmospheric lightning. Second best model near vacuum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: Well ... we can't think of the Earth system as having a silver bullet factor - like the HC is causing all this, or the La Nina is causing all that... The climate system is an on-going cocktail of influences... some more at times, given the favorable setting to act. That's A B, the compression has been an issue across all winters now going back a decade, the majority of times, and that was regardless of ENSO state. Agreed, but in terms of this winter, I suspect it might be more ENSO. Question: Would the HC influence in general, be less of a factor for SoCal? That region of the Pac perhaps does not have the warm water that is found in the Caribbean, etc., meaning they have a less aggressive HC circulation? I ask that because this winter's trough is sooo deep in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 I cant buy into anything until I see the whites of its flakes. Even 4 day progs are sus AF. No model is a standout either. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 57 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: Agreed, but in terms of this winter, I suspect it might be more ENSO. Question: Would the HC influence in general, be less of a factor for SoCal? That region of the Pac perhaps does not have the warm water that is found in the Caribbean, etc., meaning they have a less aggressive HC circulation? I ask that because this winter's trough is sooo deep in that region. I suspect depth of -PNA trough has more to do with the superposition of the longer term La Niña occurring with a normal intraseasonal pattern forcing from Asia through the Date Line Those would be in a powerfully constructive interference in tandem … The HC expansion is a whole scale base line state of increased(ing) hgts within the deep subtropical latitudes. It doesn’t modulates patterns in the same way as it’s evenly distributed as lower latitude canvas over which these other intermediate (pattern) and longer termed (La Niña) aspects take place. That’s the present papered facets on HC expansion. I have personally advanced hypothesis that its increasing the gradients at mid latitudes during the winters; so in an indirect sense … faster flow can affect Rossby waves distribution and so forth but even if that were the case and that could be proven … it wouldn’t stop what’s going on with a PNA trough now - that’s (again) likely an intraseason pattern constructively interfering with longer term La Niña tendency, two things overwhelming everything else -probably Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 hours ago, leo2000 said: Any favorite pattern change lol is over before it even begins according to these guys. Eric Webb @webberweather · 4h I generally agree. While the GEFS has been overzealous in the medium range of late trying to bring back the GOA ridge, the lower freq evolution of the troposphere & stratosphere suggest a prototypical late winter Nina +NAM/-PNA state returns by the end of Jan-early Feb Quote Tweet Dr Simon Lee @SimonLeeWx · 5h With the N Pacific ridge migrating poleward, GEFS spies the onset of the Alaskan Ridge regime for early-mid January -- bringing colder weather more widely to the US & ending a potentially record-setting Arctic Low regime. However: the Arctic Low regime then comes straight back... twitter.com/SimonLeeWx/sta… Show this thread Agree. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 hours ago, powderfreak said: Yeah I have no idea on the ICON scores but the NAM and GFS shifts were noticeable too. Might be able to score a net gain out of the cutter. That looks about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Basically … a general shit winter with an interlude or two of tacit favorability La Nina’s are supposed to be front loaded winters. Yet another ENSO climate failure … It’d be really funny if the winter is back loaded or even mid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 If the 18z GFS op is right, Boston will average 6-7F above normal between now and mid-Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: If the 18z GFS op is right, Boston will average 6-7F above normal between now and mid-Jan. Which is still abysmally mank infested misery outside. The Great Winter Of Zero Redeeming Value. At this rate I’d rather it 50 above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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