January 2022 Obs/Disco

[EastonSN+]

34 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

It's amazing how many people troll the New England forum. All of the interesting weather that happens to members of this forum happens in New England so I guess it makes sense. Nothing interesting weather wise has happened in NJ, MD, NYC, VA, NC, SC, etc. for literally years so they troll here.

Agree with this except NYC. They had a 16 inch storm and great winter last year.

[Brewbeer]

35 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Even people from NE troll this forum.  weird.  

Gotta troll ah, er track something.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Hopefully the strong cutter modeled on the 12Z GFS next weekend is what finally moves everything east.  Seems that way on ensembles for now unless they change again.  Post Jan 9 we may finally see winter for a bit?

[weathafella]

Yeah the Seattle area is in the 60s today thanks to CC.

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Hopefully the strong cutter modeled on the 12Z GFS next weekend is what finally moves everything east.  Seems that way on ensembles for now unless they change again.  Post Jan 9 we may finally see winter for a bit?

Mean trough moves east by then so I think it will definitely help....wavelengths get a bit longer in January too which will help. We still have a monster ridge up in the Bering, so the cold supply is not going to be the issue assuming we move the mean trough eastward a bit. It's definitely not a one-eyed pig pattern.

[moneypitmike]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mean trough moves east by then so I think it will definitely help....wavelengths get a bit longer in January too which will help. We still have a monster ridge up in the Bering, so the cold supply is not going to be the issue assuming we move the mean trough eastward a bit. It's definitely not a one-eyed pig pattern.

There's plenty of mid-upper 30's to go around.

[mahk_webstah]

39 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Hopefully the strong cutter modeled on the 12Z GFS next weekend is what finally moves everything east.  Seems that way on ensembles for now unless they change again.  Post Jan 9 we may finally see winter for a bit?

Why do we always have to suffer first???  Whhhhhyyyyyyyy

[moneypitmike]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Why do we always have to suffer first???  Whhhhhyyyyyyyy

I actually was curious about this.......is there a rule that says the game-changer system needs to be a cutter?  Can't it just as easily be a benchmark storm that throws the pattern askew?

[Go Kart Mozart]

19 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

I actually was curious about this.......is there a rule that says the game-changer system needs to be a cutter?  Can't it just as easily be a benchmark storm that throws the pattern askew?

Could it be that a cutter is needed to  pound down the SE ridge?  It's hard to get a big benchmark storm until that ridge has been banished.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Agree with this except NYC. They had a 16 inch storm and great winter last year.

Ya phineas gets a lil crazy…NYC has had their share of big storms..summer and winter of late. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, mahk_webstah said:

Why do we always have to suffer first???  Whhhhhyyyyyyyy

Its about wound up systems providing the impetus for mass heat flux to higher latitudes in order to facilitate a change to a more favorable pattern by raising heights up there. They also represent wave breaking events that can shift the pattern. The reason you don't hear about that with respect to blizzards near the BM is because we are usually already in a favorable pattern at that time.

[ineedsnow]

just a little change on the day8 Euro between yesterday and today 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its about wound up systems providing the impetus for mass heat flux to higher latitudes in order to facilitate a change to a more favorable pattern by raising heights up there. They also represent wave breaking events that can shift the pattern. The reason you don't hear about that with respect to blizzards near the BM is because we are usually already in a favorable pattern at that time.

Sometimes the benchmark blizzard actually ends a great pattern....we've seen that many times.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sometimes the benchmark blizzard actually ends a great pattern....we've seen that many times.

Better to have loved and lost than not loved at all?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sometimes the benchmark blizzard actually ends a great pattern....we've seen that many times.

Yes.

[MJO812]

Pna looks way better by next weekend on the Euro with an interior threat 

[CoastalWx]

First decent euro run in weeks 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Better to have loved and lost than not loved at all?

It doesn't always mean doom though.....the blizzard sometimes ends a great pattern, but what happens in our good winters is that we don't get torched during the reshuffle. Think of the Feb 7-9, 2015 event when the rest of the country torched or the 1/18/11 front end thump to sleet/ice event after the NAO broke down post-1/12/11 blizzard and before the western PNA ridge popped to give us that great final 2 weeks of Jan 2011.

My hope for this season (and Ray is prob thinking similar)....we enter a decent 2 weeks of neutral to slightly +PNA with a huge ridge over Bering/AK....then we start to reshuffle again, but perhaps that gets blunted by a -NAO forming....we very frequently see blocking return when earlier in the winter had big blocking. We'll see though....before we worry about ending a good pattern, lets actually get one first and get a damned warning event.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

First decent euro run in weeks 

was just going to post that lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It doesn't always mean doom though.....the blizzard sometimes ends a great pattern, but what happens in our good winters is that we don't get torched during the reshuffle. Think of the Feb 7-9, 2015 event when the rest of the country torched or the 1/18/11 front end thump to sleet/ice event after the NAO broke down post-1/12/11 blizzard and before the western PNA ridge popped to give us that great final 2 weeks of Jan 2011.

My hope for this season (and Ray is prob thinking similar)....we enter a decent 2 weeks of neutral to slightly +PNA with a huge ridge over Bering/AK....then we start to reshuffle again, but perhaps that gets blunted by a -NAO forming....we very frequently see blocking return when earlier in the winter had big blocking. We'll see though....before we worry about ending a good pattern, lets actually get one first and get a damned warning event.

Exactly.

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Pna looks way better by next weekend on the Euro with an interior threat 

OP run though…and 9 days out, all the caveats apply if we can even believe it.  But I guess it’s better to at least show something decent, then not. 

Let’s see what the ensembles show? 

[WxWatcher007]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It doesn't always mean doom though.....the blizzard sometimes ends a great pattern, but what happens in our good winters is that we don't get torched during the reshuffle. Think of the Feb 7-9, 2015 event when the rest of the country torched or the 1/18/11 front end thump to sleet/ice event after the NAO broke down post-1/12/11 blizzard and before the western PNA ridge popped to give us that great final 2 weeks of Jan 2011.

My hope for this season (and Ray is prob thinking similar)....we enter a decent 2 weeks of neutral to slightly +PNA with a huge ridge over Bering/AK....then we start to reshuffle again, but perhaps that gets blunted by a -NAO forming....we very frequently see blocking return when earlier in the winter had big blocking. We'll see though....before we worry about ending a good pattern, lets actually get one first and get a damned warning event.

No disagreement here. Amen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

OP run though…and 9 days out, all the caveats apply if we can even believe it.  But I guess it’s better to at least show something decent, then not. 

Let’s see what the ensembles show? 

Yea, I am not saying to buy that single OP run...obviously await ensemble consensus and then consistency, but that is a start. I think that is the right path. It just doesn't sit well with me that this season is a ratter.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If you look at all of our ratter la nina winters, they were pretty much raging + throughout the polar domain.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

EPS just can’t stay consistent in the 10-15 another different North Pacific look.

[Damage In Tolland]

What a disaster 

[CoastalWx]

EPS still trying to pop a +PNA. That’s good to see.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EPS just can’t stay consistent in the 10-15 another different North Pacific look.

Ya can’t trust any modeling this season..good look or bad look. It’s all over the f’n place. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS still trying to pop a +PNA. That’s good to see.

Yes it is but annoying to see North Pacific, but it's been flip flopping, the GEFS and GEPS are much better.

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you look at all of our ratter la nina winters, they were pretty much raging + throughout the polar domain.

Yeah the only exception i think is '84-85.

1954-55 had a big -NAO but a garbage N PAC.