January 2022 Obs/Disco

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's closer

So isn't death, as least we know that will ultimately verify.

[Typhoon Tip]

One should not continue to elicit a positive angle on the MJO

• Both velocity potential based MJO and RMM indices indicate an active West Pacific MJO event
with little continued eastward propagation in recent weeks.
• There is disagreement among the dynamical models regarding the predicted evolution of the MJO,
leading to continued uncertainty in the outlook.
• Tropical cyclone formation is favored over the southern Pacific where any coherence of the MJO is
more likely to manifest itself during the next two weeks.
• While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS,
extended range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North
American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North
America.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

For those questioning the mega torch…

 

 

Now we're talking!  thats the torch you referred to earlier.  If that ends up as the mean for that period, every single met I've read is wrong about the pattern over the last month, and where it was headed.  And those are the educated ones!  The weenies, well....  But I should add that how could anyone have foreseen this progression given what the analogs and models of all kinds have been putting out?

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One should not continue to elicit a positive angle on the MJO

• Both velocity potential based MJO and RMM indices indicate an active West Pacific MJO event
with little continued eastward propagation in recent weeks.
• There is disagreement among the dynamical models regarding the predicted evolution of the MJO,
leading to continued uncertainty in the outlook.
• Tropical cyclone formation is favored over the southern Pacific where any coherence of the MJO is
more likely to manifest itself during the next two weeks.
• While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS,
extended range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North
American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North
America.

Even if the RNA is 1-2SD....its better than the record 3SD that we have had. The hope for the first half of January is that we can cash in on the period when the NAO is relinquishing its grip en route to the thaw.

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Now we're talking!  thats the torch you referred to earlier.  If that ends up as the mean for that period, every single met I've read is wrong about the pattern over the last month, and where it was headed.  And those are the educated ones!  The weenies, well....  But I should add that how could anyone have foreseen this progression given what the analogs and models of all kinds have been putting out?

But that torch is really for a day or two. Those anomalies. 

[michsnowfreak]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Now Cosgrove is saying late January/early February for any real winter weather in the northeast.

He is making no sense. He keeps saying a brief cold shot around new years than a 10-22 thaw before a very cold end of Jan and into Feb. He is saying all ensembles show an extended Jan thaw. So....since the actual ensembles only go to Jan 13 (showing cold)....and the cfs and euro weeklies show cold...what is he looking at?

[EasternLI]

20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

One should not continue to elicit a positive angle on the MJO

• Both velocity potential based MJO and RMM indices indicate an active West Pacific MJO event
with little continued eastward propagation in recent weeks.
• There is disagreement among the dynamical models regarding the predicted evolution of the MJO,
leading to continued uncertainty in the outlook.
• Tropical cyclone formation is favored over the southern Pacific where any coherence of the MJO is
more likely to manifest itself during the next two weeks.
• While West Pacific MJO events typically favor colder than normal conditions across the CONUS,
extended range model guidance continues to mimic more of an amplified negative Pacific North
American pattern, suggestive of La Niña dominating the extratropical response over North
America.

I enjoy reading those. This pesky west pacific very warm pool seems to have been driving the bus. 

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

He is making no sense. He keeps saying a brief cold shot around new years than a 10-22 thaw before a very cold end of Jan and into Feb. He is saying all ensembles show an extended Jan thaw. So....since the actual ensembles only go to Jan 13 (showing cold)....and the cfs and euro weeklies show cold...what is he looking at?

His colon.

[weathafella]

LC has been pretty strong the past few years.  I anticipate delaying the cold until mid month at the earliest.  Hopefully I’m wrong but it’s starting to line up that way.

[Damage In Tolland]

31 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

He is making no sense. He keeps saying a brief cold shot around new years than a 10-22 thaw before a very cold end of Jan and into Feb. He is saying all ensembles show an extended Jan thaw. So....since the actual ensembles only go to Jan 13 (showing cold)....and the cfs and euro weeklies show cold...what is he looking at?

He’s drunk. The dude is never right . Similar to DT

-He’s not dealing with it 

[dryslot]

Extended January thaw? Did i miss the freeze period?

[metagraphica]

10 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Extended January thaw? Did i miss the freeze period?

My thoughts exactly.  Hard to have a thaw if you haven't been frozen yet.

[SouthCoastMA]

Weenies can pray for a 12z NAVGEM type solution on 1/3

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

But that torch is really for a day or two. Those anomalies. 

Ya like 2-3

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya like 2-3

 

[alex]

Seeing people discuss the temperature 12-14 days from now makes me giggle. If I had to shovel the snow that is often progged for 12-14 days out I'd need an army... No offense but I don't think ANY forecast beyond a week has any clue

[Rtd208]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Now Cosgrove is saying late January/early February for any real winter weather in the northeast.

 

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

He is making no sense. He keeps saying a brief cold shot around new years than a 10-22 thaw before a very cold end of Jan and into Feb. He is saying all ensembles show an extended Jan thaw. So....since the actual ensembles only go to Jan 13 (showing cold)....and the cfs and euro weeklies show cold...what is he looking at?

I am usually a pretty big fan of Larry Cosgrove and he has been very good the last few years but he is clearly kicking the can down the road from his earlier thoughts. I have a suspicion DT (WxRisk) may be walking back his recent thoughts on the cold and snow potential as well if the pattern doesn't change soon.

[weathafella]

The people bashing Cosgrove haven’t been following him the past few years….or they’re bitter for some reason.

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The people bashing Cosgrove haven’t been following him the past few years….or they’re bitter for some reason.

Doesn't seem like they can "Deal with it"

[78Blizzard]

I'm jealous of this taking place out west, elevation notwithstanding:

[Ginx snewx]

45 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya like 2-3

Op?

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[Baroclinic Zone]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Oh Canada!

[PhineasC]

Yeah the cutter looks pretty bad right now. Hopefully it dampens out a little as it moves into meso range. 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

The people bashing Cosgrove haven’t been following him the past few years….or they’re bitter for some reason.

To be clear I'm not bashing cosgrove, i like him. i'm just wondering where he is seeing this alleged mid Jan thaw on the long range models. I have weatherbell and the end of the ensembles, as well as euro and cfs weeklies...couldn't be further from a thaw east of the rockies (at least in the North). If he feels they're wrong or whatever, fine, but we must be looking at different models lol. Not wish casting either because I actually like where I stand in the lakes for storminess...just wondering when that extreme cold to the west will bleed over for a longer spell.

[Supernovice]

If this were to verify: fastest trans-continental flights ever? Paging @Typhoon Tip

Either way- this all seems very normal and nothing to think twice about.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Oh Canada!

GFS drags that 0c 850 line N of Montreal. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro shows a snower? 

[eduggs]

2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Weenies can pray for a 12z NAVGEM type solution on 1/3

Already gone and caved at 18z.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

LC has been pretty strong the past few years.  I anticipate delaying the cold until mid month at the earliest.  Hopefully I’m wrong but it’s starting to line up that way.

It’s hard to not at least start peering ahead toward ratter territory