Torch Tiger Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 12z gfs D10 onwards is incredible!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Just now, Torch Tiger said: 12z gfs D10 onwards is incredible!! Nice mega ridge with a subtropical storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Probably won't avoid the torch. That's the cutter many have been referencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Probably won't avoid the torch. That's the cutter many have been referencing. If it changes things up, then I welcome it. Anything is better than a coolish pattern laden with desonctructive interference. Its the absolute worst and I would rather an all out torch. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 hour ago, mreaves said: I know it sucked over your way. Once we started in January we had good riding into March. Like I said it was too short but over here we had a C or C- winter not a total rat. One big ol' river rat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 10 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: 12z gfs D10 onwards is incredible!! Haha. It wedges up here throughout that warm stretch. FML 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Haha. It wedges up here throughout that warm stretch. FML Kevin dropping down some pre-emergent next weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: Haha. It wedges up here throughout that warm stretch. FML Scraping your car at 32F while PF is hosting margarita parties at the picnic tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Rains to Baths Maines ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: If it changes things up, then I welcome it. Anything is better than a coolish pattern laden with desonctructive interference. Its the absolute worst and I would rather an all out torch. Yeah, cool, gray and damp is just depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Scraping your car at 32F while PF is hosting margarita parties at the picnic tables. May go postal if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Worse winter ever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Worse winter ever *** Worst 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Soak it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 That temp Gradient is insane day 11 and 12 in the midwest 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: May go postal if this verifies. The sea breeze will temper my warmth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, that is what killed us....even if it had reached between -1 and -2 nadir, we probably would have seen significant snow with that NAO block. Just as an aside: the PNA domain is truly enormous. In fact, it probably in some statistical theory could be considered too big to be entirely practical. It encompasses some 1/4 of the geographic area of the planet to more or less hyperbole. That pragmatics of it comes into question when looking historically ... there have been notable storm episodes in -3 PNA's. This year? Is not one of those - so far. It is what it is. There are other factors - HC ain't helping...sorry to say, because laying a ridge tendency over a lower latitude Walker boundary that is tending to be N of the previous 'Millennial' climate signal, is inherently a constructive feed-back between the two. It may not express as huge heights extending clear to ORD-BUF-PWM, but when not ... we're trading tall tropospauses for increased wind velocities. Both represent the same energy in the budget. When the gradient relaxes, the rest state is a modest positive anomaly..etc, if perhaps not demonstrative - subtle variances have bigger impacts in that sense. That's how the HC shit works. I'm digressing.. I was just going to point out that with a huge PNA domain, it is possible to have it's west or east domain region more + or -, and given to which, that may pull the whole field up or down. If the west part of the domain is hugely negative, but the east aspect is modestly positive, we may be favored for storminess in that situation despite an overall -3 PNA... and vice versa. I'm not sure how it applies to now as an argument - I don't think it is. I think with the west biased -WPO/EPO thing that we collectively may have though 12 days ago would result better, that is sort of indicative of actually helping the -PNA expression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 15 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: The sea breeze will temper my warmth. Also in April/May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGiant611 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 This pattern has certainly been junk, but the snow removal personnel are loving it, especially those that charge by the "storm". Even 1" of snow needs to be cleared from driveways and walkways else it will simply turn to ice. We do seem to potentially get a bit of melting today, but I was expecting much more sun (which hasn't yet materialized). The teleconnections and jet stream alignment just don't seem to be there this year. It's curious because our best "Nor'Easter" actually happened back in November, but we obviously didn't have the airmass to support it, but we were all hopeful that it would have translated into winter. Something just feels off about this winter....and the large swings in temp gradients are typically fertile breeding grounds for storms or to "refresh/reload" the atmosphere, but we really haven't even seen that as we seem to be hovering in a daily max range of 3-7 degrees. That won't get the job done. A few "torch" events will likely generate some instability and pattern uncertainty that I think is a bit necessary now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 52 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Worse winter ever ...so are you saying that all of the online Mets are going to be wrong about the pattern change??? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 33 minutes ago, dryslot said: Also in April/May. The absolute worst. You enjoying your first 80's and I'm socked in the fog at 46*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 4 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Well, I guess it's time to write off this winter. It's over. Things are not going to change. Whenever I try to stay positive I just get stomped on. I do not wear Rose Colored Glasses amd I'm not an idiot. Weather's been a hobby of mine for my entire life. I don't claim to know everything, but it seems like a lot of you and here are meteorologists and professionals ( or at least act that way ), and there are select few that at super cocky and think they know it all. So with that said, we'll look forward to next winter. Staying on here doesn't seem to be doing any wonders since Winter is over. Does that about sum it up? Good melt. See you for 18z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 GEFS too embarrassed to post beyond d6.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Yeah the ground didn't even really freeze here yet. The temperatures have been up and down way too much. I think I might just to put a fork in this winter. Things were finally looking so much better yesterday with signs of a positive PNA. Now everything seems to be pushing back a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Yeah the ground didn't even really freeze here yet. The temperatures have been up and down way too much. I think I might just to put a fork in this winter. Things were finally looking so much better yesterday with signs of a positive PNA. Now everything seems to be pushing back a lot. Nothing changed. Not sure what you are talking about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 There’s 3 months left…. Way too early to give up. 2014-2015, 2012-2013 both started slow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Nothing changed. Not sure what you are talking about. Well the GEFS ensembles were showing the cold coming in around the 8th of January now its moving it until at least the 12th of January. THE GEPS has slowed down the advancing of Arctic air as well on it's ensembles. I smell a big ratter. Matt Hugo @MattHugo81 · 9h (2/2) While the opportunity for cold weather remains during the first half of Jan in particular we are closing in on the key period for winter & it doesn't look good - mentioned this the other wk but a falling AAM profile coupled with a strong vortex = +NAO outlook for mid-winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, George001 said: There’s 3 months left…. Way too early to give up. 2014-2015, 2012-2013 both started slow. I think Chaim "Six Wins" Bloom said that same about Franchy Cordero.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Well the GEFS ensembles were showing the cold coming in around the 8th of January now its moving it until at least the 12th of January. THE GEPS has slowed down the advancing of Arctic air as well on it's ensembles. I smell a big ratter. They had a cutter too. And honestly I don't even look at the GEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 5 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: I think Chaim "Six Wins" Bloom said that same about Franchy Cordero.... I have no idea why you break his balls over falling six wins shy of a WS title when they weren't even supposed to contend...you act as if they underachieved. It makes no sense. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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