CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Yup, I see. Thank you for the image and explanation. It makes sense. Well let’s hope things can start to turn around for us. Obviously my thoughts last month weren't correct even if I did get a little concerned. It's persisted much longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Well, I guess it's time to write off this winter. It's over. Things are not going to change. Whenever I try to stay positive I just get stomped on. I do not wear Rose Colored Glasses amd I'm not an idiot. Weather's been a hobby of mine for my entire life. I don't claim to know everything, but it seems like a lot of you and here are meteorologists and professionals ( or at least act that way ), and there are select few that at super cocky and think they know it all. So with that said, we'll look forward to next winter. Staying on here doesn't seem to be doing any wonders since Winter is over. Does that about sum it up? You are certainly entitled to your thoughts and opinions. I hope you continue to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Writing off winter on 12/28 is absurd. Unless you expect 100". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Just now, CoastalWx said: Writing off winter on 12/28 is absurd. Unless you expect 100". The Sierra got that in a week. So can we ! 2 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Writing off winter on 12/28 is absurd. Unless you expect 100". Yea, I am no where near that. However, if we somehow make it into the second week of January without anything significant on the imminent horizon, then I will be worried about some of my seasonal forecast ranges. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Anyhow, the look is changing. Instead of 90 in TX, they are going to get cold shots and maybe a shot of wintry wx in the deep south. Another big s/w dives into the Plains, so we'll probably cut again before we finally get a nudge east. Our longitude FTL as we are last to get in on any fun. This is the complete inverse pattern of 2014-2015. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, I am no where near that. However, if we somehow make it into the second week of January without anything significant on the imminent horizon, then I will be worried about some of my seasonal forecast ranges. If we make it to mid month and it looks like shit two weeks beyond that, I'll certainly entertain a ratter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah . That comment was tongue in cheek . He’s struggled mightily last several years He isn't perfect, but one thing that I will say for DT is that he doesn't utilize forecasts as clickbait like so many other internet mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The Sierra got that in a week. So can we ! May James RIP. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Writing off winter on 12/28 is absurd. Unless you expect 100". Annual tradition around here…canceling winter in December. We’ve even had people doing it when December was decent (like last year)…lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is the complete inverse pattern of 2014-2015. I know...but what happened that year? They baked out west and into AK. I think it's a classic climo balance. All the years they had lack luster snow in the 2010s....making up for it now. That's the result of a -PNA on roads. Usually Ninas aren't as snowy in the central Sierra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I we make it to mid month and it looks like shit two weeks beyond that, I'll certainly entertain a ratter. I think I need to see early Feb to go ratter territory just because I expect the stratosphere to get active around that time....if that isn't happening, and it looks bleak, then yes....rat it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I know...but what happened that year? They baked out west and into AK. I think it's a classic climo balance. All the years they had lack luster snow in the 2010s....making up for it now. That's the result of a -PNA on roads. Usually Ninas aren't as snowy in the central Sierra. Yes. Get it out of the way, sooner or later we won't have to hear you chirping us incessantly about regression. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 I saw Will's comment about Dec '70. Funny how that was a similar look for awhile and we got shafted. Only takes a small subtle difference to collapse the jenga puzzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 27 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Well, I guess it's time to write off this winter. It's over. Things are not going to change. Whenever I try to stay positive I just get stomped on. I do not wear Rose Colored Glasses amd I'm not an idiot. Weather's been a hobby of mine for my entire life. I don't claim to know everything, but it seems like a lot of you and here are meteorologists and professionals ( or at least act that way ), and there are select few that at super cocky and think they know it all. So with that said, we'll look forward to next winter. Staying on here doesn't seem to be doing any wonders since Winter is over. Does that about sum it up? cya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I saw Will's comment about Dec '70. Funny how that was a similar look for awhile and we got shafted. Only takes a small subtle difference to collapse the jenga puzzle. That is why seasonal forecasting is sooooo difficult. 1970 was one of my December analogs, and its really didn't evolve too much differently, but the RNA and NAO being in perfect synch porked us out of the snow. Obviously it was warmer, too...that was over 50 years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You are going from below -3SD to near neutral in the PNA. That is a big change. Even if it goes to like -1SD. Yea, that is what killed us....even if it had reached between -1 and -2 nadir, we probably would have seen significant snow with that NAO block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I need to see early Feb to go ratter territory just because I expect the stratosphere to get active around that time....if that isn't happening, and it looks bleak, then yes....rat it is. It’s an early spring in early Morch this winter , so basically 2 months to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: That is why seasonal forecasting is sooooo difficult. 1970 was one of my December analogs, and its really didn't evolve too much differently, but the RNA and NAO being in perfect synch porked us out of the snow. Obviously it was warmer, too...that was over 50 years ago. And it has been a dry month too. Can't have a chance when Stein is looking down on the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: And it has been a dry month too. Can't have a chance when Stein is looking down on the region. Its been dry in large part because of that RNA....even when the NAO block developed, we had the compression between the NAO ridge to the north, and RNA ridge to the south. It would not have been dry if the RNA were just a little less prevalent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 I'll tell ya though, these days on Christmas vacation are the absolute worst lol. Time to get creative with stuff to do for the kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: It’s an early spring in early Morch this winter , so basically 2 months to go I disagree, but we'll see. Stratosphere dependent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I need to see early Feb to go ratter territory just because I expect the stratosphere to get active around that time....if that isn't happening, and it looks bleak, then yes....rat it is. that's a wasted winter and still a ratter to me...backloaded snow in SNE late-winter and March blows, unless you travel to a resort to enjoy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Just now, Torch Tiger said: that's a wasted winter and still a ratter to me...backloaded snow in SNE late-winter and March blows, unless you are at a resort to enjoy it. Well, that is a subjective ratter.....I am speaking of a statistical ratter in terms of total seasonal snowfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Annual tradition around here…canceling winter in December. We’ve even had people doing it when December was decent (like last year)…lol. It was not decent in NNE--it sucked wire-to-wire. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 12 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: cya And this is a perfect example of what I was saying. My post was to make a point on the way we should go about these things and not to pounce on others. You torch tiger are definitely one of the antagonizers. You don't come on here with any positive feedback. You come on here to dig into people, and twist at night. You are definitely one of those bullies and you really shouldn't be on here. So take that and stick it where the sun don't shine 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: And this is a perfect example of what I was saying. My post was to make a point at the way about these things and not to pounce on others. You torch tiger are definitely one of the antagonizers. You don't come on here with any positive feedback. You come on here to dig into people, and twist at night. You are definitely one of those bullies and you really shouldn't be on here. So take that and stick it where the sun don't shine Take that, and stick in your deep, dark no-no place! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I'll tell ya though, these days on Christmas vacation are the absolute worst lol. Time to get creative with stuff to do for the kids. You always have trouble with this. What’s the issue? When mine were young it wasn’t stressful if it was a mild , snowless winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Gorgeous day on tap, not a cloud in the sky with temps pushing 50 on December 28th. Why not, if it isn't going to snow then let's enjoy being outside.... Had around 0.2" of snow and sleet coated with some freezing rain, melting nicely atm like half of the forum is right now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You always have trouble with this. What’s the issue? When mine were young it wasn’t stressful if it was a mild , snowless winter We really only had two stick-bomb winters when your kids were growing up....2006-2007, and 2011-2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now