Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 11:52 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said: We torch after that pretty good looks like hope now is post January 9 west coast trough moves east. 12 days out again Expand I don’t see any torch after the cold shot early Jan. Besides DT says deep winter is coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Shit through first week of January. Maybe after the 10th or so. 3 2 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/27/2021 at 10:31 PM, dryslot said: Congrats RIC. Expand On 12/28/2021 at 12:08 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: It’s like Groundhog Day. The better look is only 15 days away. Expand C'mon guys....DT gave a near guarantee that real winter is coming....oh and don't forget to sign up for the $5.00 a month newsletter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 12:13 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t see any torch after the cold shot early Jan. Besides DT says deep winter is coming Expand Oh we torch again. Looks like 2-4 days in the 50s before we hopefully get some real cold post Jan 8/9. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 12:13 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I don’t see any torch after the cold shot early Jan. Besides DT says deep winter is coming Expand winter cancel. dude is never right 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 1:02 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Oh we torch again. Looks like 2-4 days in the 50s before we hopefully get some real cold post Jan 8/9. Expand Agree. it is going to be difficult to avoid additional torches this winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 1:02 PM, SJonesWX said: winter cancel. dude is never right Expand Yeah . That comment was tongue in cheek . He’s struggled mightily last several years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 If we can't get true winter to set in by mid-January, I'd almost rather it just move to spring instead of a truncated winter (note the 'almost'). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 1:02 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: Oh we torch again. Looks like 2-4 days in the 50s before we hopefully get some real cold post Jan 8/9. Expand 3 or 4 degrees above normal is a torch in the 50s? I'm probably misinterpreting the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 1:36 PM, mahk_webstah said: 3 or 4 degrees above normal is a torch in the 50s? I'm probably misinterpreting the map. Expand Ya I was thinking the same thing. 4 degrees above normal in January is like 37 degrees here and lower there…how does that equate to 50’s for highs? What are we missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 No one cares about temps Snow > temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 1:40 PM, WinterWolf said: Ya I was thinking the same thing. 4 degrees above normal in January is like 37 degrees here and lower there…how does that equate to 50’s for highs? What are we missing? Expand In between those days are mega torches. It's a 5 day avg. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Anyhow, the look is changing. Instead of 90 in TX, they are going to get cold shots and maybe a shot of wintry wx in the deep south. Another big s/w dives into the Plains, so we'll probably cut again before we finally get a nudge east. Our longitude FTL as we are last to get in on any fun. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 1:40 PM, WinterWolf said: Ya I was thinking the same thing. 4 degrees above normal in January is like 37 degrees here and lower there…how does that equate to 50’s for highs? What are we missing? Expand It’s an ensemble mean 5 day average that’s warm. Look at the ops if you want to see the torch for actual highs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 1:42 PM, CoastalWx said: In between those days are mega torches. It's a 5 day avg. Expand Lol oh ok…so now it’s a mega torch? Wow, weeklies wrong again. Why would we even look at those POS anymore? All we keep hearing is how the weeklies look very good…but it never happens. Weeklies mega fail! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 1:46 PM, WinterWolf said: Lol oh ok…so now it’s a mega torch? Wow, weeklies wrong again. Why would we even look at those POS anymore? All we keep hearing is how the weeklies look very good…but it never happens. Weeklies mega fail! Expand That's the ensembles though, not weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Looks like rain to snow on Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 You are going from below -3SD to near neutral in the PNA. That is a big change. Even if it goes to like -1SD. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 1:47 PM, CoastalWx said: That's the ensembles though, not weeklies. Expand I did realize that was the ensembles, But the weeklies say/painting a different picture, but then it doesn’t seem to materialize? Or maybe I’m just confused. Im in Far northern Maine for the week sledding. So it’s deep winter here at least. 9 degrees currently, and 2-3 inches coming today up here. So at least I’m in a place where it’s winter for the week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 1:54 PM, CoastalWx said: You are going from below -3SD to near neutral in the PNA. That is a big change. Even if it goes to like -1SD. Expand It’s a start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 1:54 PM, CoastalWx said: You are going from below -3SD to near neutral in the PNA. That is a big change. Even if it goes to like -1SD. Expand Ya that looks good. But it’s almost two weeks out…can we trust that? You’d think something would have to give eventually right? That trough out west can’t stay there permanently…right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Guidance could change too. It’s assuming we get a big cutter in there and that doesn’t always happen…esp in strong -WPO/EPO block that is going right into the North Pole…you can sometimes end up CADing the system. I know everyone is assuming the warm trend wins out because we’ve been getting mostly skunked but just as often you may see a trend of lowering heights in Quebec too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 1:57 PM, WinterWolf said: Ya that looks good. But it’s almost two weeks out…can we trust that? You’d think something would have to give eventually right? That trough out west can’t stay there permanently…right? Expand Here is the image from the 19th. You can see, it was still predicted to drop until about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 1:41 PM, MJO812 said: No one cares about temps Snow > temps Expand ...but a certain temp range is required to get snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 1:59 PM, ORH_wxman said: Guidance could change too. It’s assuming we get a big cutter in there and that doesn’t always happen…esp in strong -WPO/EPO block that is going right into the North Pole…you can sometimes end up CADing the system. I know everyone is assuming the warm trend wins out because we’ve been getting mostly skunked but just as often you may see a trend of lowering heights in Quebec too. Expand Thanks for the explanation. Let’s hope we can catch a break soon… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Well, I guess it's time to write off this winter. It's over. Things are not going to change. Whenever I try to stay positive I just get stomped on. I do not wear Rose Colored Glasses amd I'm not an idiot. Weather's been a hobby of mine for my entire life. I don't claim to know everything, but it seems like a lot of you and here are meteorologists and professionals ( or at least act that way ), and there are select few that at super cocky and think they know it all. So with that said, we'll look forward to next winter. Staying on here doesn't seem to be doing any wonders since Winter is over. Does that about sum it up? 1 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Trust me, you know me with my flags and I'm as frustrated as everyone else....but I do think we get out of this. Is 2015 walking in, probably not. But hopefully we can get a decent stretch. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 2:03 PM, CoastalWx said: Here is the image from the 19th. You can see, it was still predicted to drop until about now. Expand Yup, I see. Thank you for the image and explanation. It makes sense. Well let’s hope things can start to turn around for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 Something is changing. Pattern is looking a lot more active which is good. Looks like cutter season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 28, 2021 Share Posted December 28, 2021 On 12/28/2021 at 2:05 PM, CoastalWx said: Trust me, you know me with my flags and I'm as frustrated as everyone else....but I do think we get out of this. Is 2015 walking in, probably not. But hopefully we can get a decent stretch. Expand Agreed. But we sure didn’t think ‘15 was walking in back in late January of 2015 either. That was a very frustrating stretch up to that point too. Yes, a decent stretch is all we want. Doesn’t have to be epic/phenomenal, just decent is fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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