Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,910
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    WichitaChiefSam
    Newest Member
    WichitaChiefSam
    Joined

January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
 Share

Recommended Posts

  On 12/27/2021 at 1:06 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It depends why you are doing it......I like to see how accurate I am when I compose it in late October/ early November. While I will adjust ideas in subsequent blog posts, the original outlook gets graded as is from November.

At this point, I am going to need a big event or two to catch up prior to the January thaw, or else my seasonal snowfall totals will likely be too high.

Still very possible we catch up, but I am obviously frustrated at this point.

Expand  

This is my honest assessment of where things stand.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/27/2021 at 1:08 PM, 512high said:

Gosh, I hope this isn't going to be like the December thread....we need a good event soon.

Expand  

We should get a good period before things go to hell again, but if we don't, or don't capitalize on the good window, then its time to take 'em down for the season.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/27/2021 at 1:38 PM, Snowcrazed71 said:

As long as we have something to get us through the next rough patch, it will at least keep some people barely afloat LOL

Expand  

Man, looking at all three ensemble suites, I don't see much hope for anything significant right through the first week to ten days of January.

Yikes. Hopefully that changes, but it looks like more of the same crap, to me....energy tumbling down the west coast from AK, attenuating and lifting north as it heads east.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/27/2021 at 1:40 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, looking at all three ensemble suites, I don't see much hope for anything significant right through the first week to ten days of January.

Yikes. Hopefully that changes, but it looks like more of the same crap, to me....energy tumbling down the west coast from AK, attenuating and lifting north as it heads east.

Expand  

From WPC overnight:

A blocky and amplified ridge/upper high anchored over the northern 
Pacific should finally begin to break down and weaken next 
weekend. Before that though, renewed troughing (and chilly 
weather) will continue across the Western U.S., including a 
southern stream closed low near southern California 
Thursday-Friday. An initial northern stream shortwave will send 
one system across the Great Lakes/Northeast late this week, but by 
the weekend a stronger system (and northern Pacific ridge 
weakening) should finally allow for a pattern shift as amplified 
troughing shifts into the central U.S. and the East

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/27/2021 at 1:50 PM, mahk_webstah said:

From WPC overnight:

A blocky and amplified ridge/upper high anchored over the northern 
Pacific should finally begin to break down and weaken next 
weekend. Before that though, renewed troughing (and chilly 
weather) will continue across the Western U.S., including a 
southern stream closed low near southern California 
Thursday-Friday. An initial northern stream shortwave will send 
one system across the Great Lakes/Northeast late this week, but by 
the weekend a stronger system (and northern Pacific ridge 
weakening) should finally allow for a pattern shift as amplified 
troughing shifts into the central U.S. and the East

Expand  

I don't see much signs of a shift on the ensembles...all I am saying.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/27/2021 at 2:04 PM, ORH_wxman said:

A solid dose of crappy snow winters is needed IMHO. The 2000s/2010s turned us into entitled whiners. 

Expand  

Well, I'm not sure what exactly you are looking for, but this will potentially be my fourth consecutive season of greater than 10" below average seasonal snowfall.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/27/2021 at 2:07 PM, crownweather said:

CIPS analog hints at an "Ice, Ice Baby" scenario with the storm New Year's weekend.  Anyone know how significant the freezing rain event was for around December 17-18 or so of 2008 - which would have been a week after the very significant ice storm on December 11, 2008.  

 

Screenshot 2021-12-27 090346.png

Expand  

12/17/08 was a weak overrunning event that dropped an inch or two of snow and then a small glaze. It wasn’t a significant event. A couple days later we got a big snow event on 12/19/08. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/27/2021 at 2:10 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I'm not sure what exactly you are looking for, but this will potentially be my fourth consecutive season of greater than 10" below average seasonal snowfall.

Expand  

Your small area in NE MA has been a bit of a screwgie the past 3 winters but not indicative of the region as a whole. A good chunk of SNE did fine last year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/27/2021 at 2:14 PM, SnoSki14 said:

My thoughts are we get most of the snows in late winter. Late Feb & March as blocking returns and PNA signature is more favorable. 

Expand  

I agree.....my thoughts all along have been a back loaded winter, but I thought December and early January would have decent snowfall, which doesn't seem to be working out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  On 12/27/2021 at 2:19 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Well this is the pattern to get that started. Best snows in the type of pattern forecasted over the next 10-15 days will be those with some latitude. 

Expand  

Yea, my thought going in was that it would happen this season, but it hasn't...at least not yet. Hey, who knows....maybe this is the regression from 2007-2008 when this area killed the rest of the region.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...