512high Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Gosh, I hope this isn't going to be like the December thread....we need a good event soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Just now, Baroclinic Zone said: You're melting. I've been melting, where in the hell have you been? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It depends why you are doing it......I like to see how accurate I am when I compose it in late October/ early November. While I will adjust ideas in subsequent blog posts, the original outlook gets graded as is from November. At this point, I am going to need a big event or two to catch up prior to the January thaw, or else my seasonal snowfall totals will likely be too high. Still very possible we catch up, but I am obviously frustrated at this point. This is my honest assessment of where things stand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I've been melting, where in the hell have you been? Busy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, 512high said: Gosh, I hope this isn't going to be like the December thread....we need a good event soon. We should get a good period before things go to hell again, but if we don't, or don't capitalize on the good window, then its time to take 'em down for the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: We should get a good period before things go to hell again, but if we don't, or don't capitalize on the good window, then its time to take 'em down for the season. So you really think we are done after a few good weeks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: So you really think we are done after a few good weeks? No. I think we will have a another rough 2-3 weeks before a final period of blocking late in the season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: No. I think we will have a another rough 2-3 weeks before a final period of blocking late in the season. As long as we have something to get us through the next rough patch, it will at least keep some people barely afloat LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: As long as we have something to get us through the next rough patch, it will at least keep some people barely afloat LOL Man, looking at all three ensemble suites, I don't see much hope for anything significant right through the first week to ten days of January. Yikes. Hopefully that changes, but it looks like more of the same crap, to me....energy tumbling down the west coast from AK, attenuating and lifting north as it heads east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Will it be cold at least, so we can do ice fishing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Just now, Whineminster said: Will it be cold at least, so we can do ice fishing? Seasonably cold...it doesn't look like a torch, just uninspiring....like I said, more of the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 I see nothing to be excited about in the next few weeks…. Unless of course you like half inch snowfalls 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Man, looking at all three ensemble suites, I don't see much hope for anything significant right through the first week to ten days of January. Yikes. Hopefully that changes, but it looks like more of the same crap, to me....energy tumbling down the west coast from AK, attenuating and lifting north as it heads east. From WPC overnight: A blocky and amplified ridge/upper high anchored over the northern Pacific should finally begin to break down and weaken next weekend. Before that though, renewed troughing (and chilly weather) will continue across the Western U.S., including a southern stream closed low near southern California Thursday-Friday. An initial northern stream shortwave will send one system across the Great Lakes/Northeast late this week, but by the weekend a stronger system (and northern Pacific ridge weakening) should finally allow for a pattern shift as amplified troughing shifts into the central U.S. and the East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 We need another 495 paste bomb like last year to set some of the weenies over the cliff. Plenty of teetering right now. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 27, 2021 Author Share Posted December 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: We need another 495 paste bomb like last year to set some of the weenies over the cliff. Plenty of teetering right now. No teetering when I’m really never in the game. Let’s go for futility IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 The place is a mess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 13 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: From WPC overnight: A blocky and amplified ridge/upper high anchored over the northern Pacific should finally begin to break down and weaken next weekend. Before that though, renewed troughing (and chilly weather) will continue across the Western U.S., including a southern stream closed low near southern California Thursday-Friday. An initial northern stream shortwave will send one system across the Great Lakes/Northeast late this week, but by the weekend a stronger system (and northern Pacific ridge weakening) should finally allow for a pattern shift as amplified troughing shifts into the central U.S. and the East I don't see much signs of a shift on the ensembles...all I am saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: The place is a mess A solid dose of crappy snow winters is needed IMHO. The 2000s/2010s turned us into entitled whiners. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Just an FYI, There's a panic room for some of you to go flip out in, Just let it rip in there, Make it memorable, Should have a grading system for the best melts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crownweather Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 CIPS analog hints at an "Ice, Ice Baby" scenario with the storm New Year's weekend. Anyone know how significant the freezing rain event was for around December 17-18 or so of 2008 - which would have been a week after the very significant ice storm on December 11, 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: A solid dose of crappy snow winters is needed IMHO. The 2000s/2010s turned us into entitled whiners. Well, I'm not sure what exactly you are looking for, but this will potentially be my fourth consecutive season of greater than 10" below average seasonal snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, crownweather said: CIPS analog hints at an "Ice, Ice Baby" scenario with the storm New Year's weekend. Anyone know how significant the freezing rain event was for around December 17-18 or so of 2008 - which would have been a week after the very significant ice storm on December 11, 2008. 12/17/08 was a weak overrunning event that dropped an inch or two of snow and then a small glaze. It wasn’t a significant event. A couple days later we got a big snow event on 12/19/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Seasonably cold...it doesn't look like a torch, just uninspiring....like I said, more of the same. My thoughts are we get most of the snows in late winter. Late Feb & March as blocking returns and PNA signature is more favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, I'm not sure what exactly you are looking for, but this will potentially be my fourth consecutive season of greater than 10" below average seasonal snowfall. Your small area in NE MA has been a bit of a screwgie the past 3 winters but not indicative of the region as a whole. A good chunk of SNE did fine last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: My thoughts are we get most of the snows in late winter. Late Feb & March as blocking returns and PNA signature is more favorable. I agree.....my thoughts all along have been a back loaded winter, but I thought December and early January would have decent snowfall, which doesn't seem to be working out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Your small area in NE MA has been a bit of a screwgie the past 3 winters but not indicative of the region as a whole. A good chunk of SNE did fine last year. Right, so that should regress at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 One storm provided some of the bigger totals that some had last year though, If you would take that one away, I don't believe it would of been that great for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Right, so that should regress at some point. Well this is the pattern to get that started. Best snows in the type of pattern forecasted over the next 10-15 days will be those with some latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 I think 12/17/08 Give me about 5 inches, followed by about 12 inches on the 19th and another 14 inches on the 21st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Well this is the pattern to get that started. Best snows in the type of pattern forecasted over the next 10-15 days will be those with some latitude. Yea, my thought going in was that it would happen this season, but it hasn't...at least not yet. Hey, who knows....maybe this is the regression from 2007-2008 when this area killed the rest of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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