Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

Really interested to see the 0z runs tonight...while the GFS OP has been on/off again for the weekend..its had little GEFS support. 18z GEFS starting to support the snowier OP run this time. Roughly 8/20 members now have a decent system.

Awesome to see you posting!  Yeah, tempted to stay up and watch that run!  

[Carvers Gap]

270+ Major winter storm under way for far western areas of the forum ice/snow.

[Carvers Gap]

AK block at 288 set to empty the Arctic into the Lower 48 if it doesn't form a shallow trough.

[TellicoWx]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Awesome to see you posting!  Yeah, tempted to stay up and watch that run!  

Lol, been waiting on the Pac to reconfigure. I would be surprised if someone isn't dealing with a major event as we head into/thru Jan (not necessarily E. TN) in the mid South. Dec setup has really built the fuel up along the gulf, so all its going to take is a potent front with a trailing vort near the gulf and the potential is there for a big event. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 hour ago, TellicoWx said:

Really interested to see the 0z runs tonight..

18z Euro looking ever so slightly less constricted and a little less positively tilted with the energy as it approaches the Mississippi:

12z

 

18z

 

 

Here's the 18z GFS in the same color scheme for comparison:

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GEFS is a very cold winter pattern with a strong EPO/AK ridge.  No idea if that continues during future runs.  That looked like a very stable pattern.  That is a total reversal of the current pattern.  Not sharing a foxhole with the GEFS, but fun to look at.  

[John1122]

22 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GEFS is a very cold winter pattern with a strong EPO/AK ridge.  No idea if that continues during future runs.  That looked like a very stable pattern.  That is a total reversal of the current pattern.  Not sharing a foxhole with the GEFS, but fun to look at.  

EPO can drive not just cold, but extreme cold, into the area. Pipe bursting kind of stuff. It drove -15 degree weather into the forum area in late February a few years ago. It was persistent once established and drove sub zero air here in January and February as it swept air from Siberia over the pole and downward. Had a lot of frozen precip across the whole forum area from it too. 

[Carvers Gap]

31 minutes ago, John1122 said:

EPO can drive not just cold, but extreme cold, into the area. Pipe bursting kind of stuff. It drove -15 degree weather into the forum area in late February a few years ago. It was persistent once established and drove sub zero air here in January and February as it swept air from Siberia over the pole and downward. Had a lot of frozen precip across the whole forum area from it too. 

Agree.  We just don’t want the 12z EPS solution which flushed cold out of NA.  The GEPS and GEFS looked really good.  Get some storms undercutting that ridge, and we would be in business.  Not sure I buy the EPS solution at this point. It looked similar, just a different variation.  

[John1122]

10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Agree.  We just don’t want the 12z EPS solution which flushed cold out of NA.  The GEPS and GEFS looked really good.  Get some storms undercutting that ridge, and we would be in business.  Not sure I buy the EPS solution at this points. It looked similar, just a different variation.  

That can work here too. Canadian cold is still very cold for here even when it's AN there. We had a good winter or two in the last 10 years with a very warm Canada. Seems like 2010-11 was one. Snowed all winter here without ever getting below about 8 degrees on the coldest day. 

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, John1122 said:

That can work here too. Canadian cold is still very cold for here even when it's AN there. We had a good winter or two in the last 10 years with a very warm Canada. Seems like 2010-11 was one. Snowed all winter here without ever getting below about 8 degrees on the coldest day. 

That is what I was thinking as well - meaning Canadian cold would work.  

[Carvers Gap]

For kicks and giggles....The ever cold CFSv2 extended is working to top itself with each run.  The control is even more extreme with some 5 day time frames at twenty-five below normal.  The mean is warmer, but still very cold w/ some huge departures.  

[John1122]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

For kicks and giggles....The ever cold CFSv2 extended is working to top itself with each run.  The control is even more extreme with some 5 day time frames at twenty-five below normal.  The mean is warmer, but still very cold w/ some huge departures.  

If it shows that on Friday we could be in business. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

If it shows that on Friday we could be in business. 

This for you.  Joe D'Aleo was commenting the wild swings in Alaska this December.  BTW Antartica recorded -144F last winter.  Boggles my mind.  Anyway...

This past Sunday, a record 65 degrees reported at the Kodiak airport was 20 degrees higher than the previous high temperature record of 45 degrees set on Dec. 26, 1984, the National Weather Service reported. 

[Carvers Gap]

BTW, I was wondering what the wx was like under that big red ball in the Aleutians.  That Kodiak high temp tells the story. 

[Bigbald]

Selfishly speaking, would gladly take a blend of the 0z CMc low and 0z GFS low placement for a solid KTRi score on early next week storm.

[brianc33710]

My concerns are for a December 1984-January 1985 type setup this winter. I emailed James Spann about the similarities about 2 weeks ago. He messaged back saying this could be worth watching. Within the last week he posted something about our Dec 84-Jan 85 similarities, I think that was La Niña as well, in response to a complaint "winters aren't cold anymore." He clearly said he didn't predict/guarantee/forecast a Jan 85 killing freeze would happen but said to keep things in mind that we could go from very warm to frigid cold in a matter of weeks.

I hope I'm wrong & worried for no reason. In fact I thought things had "warmed" enough so that we wouldn't fall below 5F/-15C ever again. We haven't seen this widespread in Cen AL since Feb 96 & they used to more frequently than now. But TX last February proved that "impossibility" wrong. Yes I remember Christmas & December 1984 were just that warm, not quite as warm as 2021 but still way above average. In fact our 77F/25C today broke the Dec 84 of 75F/24C. Unfortunately January 1985 featured the coldest temps Birmingham had seen since the 1940s. Also, the official Birmingham reporting station in January 1940 recorded a +1F/-17C low but the airport where official readings now originate dropped to -10F/-23C. So while our -6F/-21C temp January 1985 temp was the lowest "official" reading since February 1899, I'll go with the airport -10F/-23C reading from the airport in January 1940 as the better gauge over the records on file. 

[Mr. Kevin]

6 minutes ago, brianc33710 said:

My concerns are for a December 1984-January 1985 type setup this winter. I emailed James Spann about the similarities about 2 weeks ago. He messaged back saying this could be worth watching. Within the last week he posted something about our Dec 84-Jan 85 similarities, I think that was La Niña as well, in response to a complaint "winters aren't cold anymore." He clearly said he didn't predict/guarantee/forecast a Jan 85 killing freeze would happen but said to keep things in mind that we could go from very warm to frigid cold in a matter of weeks.

I hope I'm wrong & worried for no reason. In fact I thought things had "warmed" enough so that we wouldn't fall below 5F/-15C ever again. We haven't seen this widespread in Cen AL since Feb 96 & they used to more frequently than now. But TX last February proved that "impossibility" wrong. Yes I remember Christmas & December 1984 were just that warm, not quite as warm as 2021 but still way above average. In fact our 77F/25C today broke the Dec 84 of 75F/24C. Unfortunately January 1985 featured the coldest temps Birmingham had seen since the 1940s. Also, the official Birmingham reporting station in January 1940 recorded a +1F/-17C low but the airport where official readings now originate dropped to -10F/-23C. So while our -6F/-21C temp January 1985 temp was the lowest "official" reading since February 1899, I'll go with the airport -10F/-23C reading from the airport in January 1940 as the better gauge over the records on file. 

Rest assured we wont see 1985 cold or even feb 2021 cold for a long time imo.

[brianc33710]

13 hours ago, Bigbald said:

Hopefully the 12z comes to fruition through 250, lots of single digit lows in there several days post front.  Hopefully this can give the ski industry a chance to play catch up, which is taking an absolute drumming right now even as far north as places like Snowshoe.  

NO THANK YOU!!! You can have single digit lows where you live but we don't want/need them in AL!

[brianc33710]

Just now, Mr. Kevin said:

Rest assured we wont see 1985 cold or even feb 2021 cold for a long time imo.

I hope you're right. But that Feb 21 freeze was originally forecast to aim further east. I hope you're right & Spann certainly is not forecasting that. But Feb 21 TX freeze caught my attention to say the least.

[Carvers Gap]

Overnight partial update:

Operationals still flirting with a system early next week...

In the LR, 12z GEFS/GEPS both showing a strong EPO signal that could deliver some quite cold air into the Lower 48 from the Rockies to the Apps.  Slight westward trend of the trough, but overall placement the same.   We needed that westward trend or that pattern would have simply not reloaded.  Don't want to see a continue trend west.   Still not convinced we are seeing the new pattern...may still be seeing a transition.  We will see what the EPS has in store overnight.   There is a sweet spot there that the pattern will have to hit regarding the western ridge alignment.

As for '84, not seeing those types of temps on modeling yet, but seeing ensembles produce significant BN departures is noteworthy.  However, weak La Nina winters(as has been noted been many on this forum....nearly every day for weeks) tend to have these really extreme temperature flips.  There are definitely duds in the mix.  But many of the great winters IMBY came with this sort of weak La Nina pattern.  Not saying that happens, but worth noting.  Jan 85 was historically cold...and then it was spring.  Big swings.  Still need to reel this in, but the possibilities for decent cold are there.  That pattern after 300 on the GEFS has the mechanism to deliver severe cold(2020s style).  Long way off in model land, though.  Biggest thing analogs do is help recognize a pattern.  

Great discussion though!  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Ladies and gentlemen, children of all ages, it's that most sacred time of the year. First NAMing of the year was imminent at 6z.

 

It's like Christmas Eve. It's not a true NAMing, but you know its coming. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Sorry, I would normally do a single post for 6z, but the NAMeve gets a special one. 

6z GFS was even better, especially for NE TN and SW VA:

 

 

 

[Icy Hot]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Sorry, I would normally do a single post for 6z, but the NAMeve gets a special one. 

6z GFS was even better, especially for NE TN and SW VA:

 

 

 

NOAA says No ah, NO!

[John1122]

The RGem isn't too far off the NAM/GFS either. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Overall, I'd say 6z Euro is pretty similar to its 0z run. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

But you know what we are starting to get in range of as of 9z??? 

 

That's right, you guessed it, SREF plumes baby!! 

[Carvers Gap]

Probably is a wee bit too cold, but the CFSv2 is about as cold as I have ever seen it here - nearly off the charts.  I had to do a double take as I thought I clicked on some other parameter than temps.  Some of its 5-day means are 25-30F BN in the western forum areas.  

MJO looks good this AM.  Ensembles tend to shallow out troughs a bit more this AM, but let's see if those MJO plots begin to push things a bit.   Overall, a good look and cold start to Jan beginning Jan 3.

[Mr. Kevin]

21 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Probably is a wee bit too cold, but the CFSv2 is about as cold as I have ever seen it here - nearly off the charts.  I had to do a double take as I thought I clicked on some other parameter than temps.  Some of its 5-day means are 25-30F BN in the western forum areas.  

MJO looks good this AM.  Ensembles tend to shallow out troughs a bit more this AM, but let's see if those MJO plots begin to push things a bit.   Overall, a good look and cold start to Jan beginning Jan 3.

I guess maybe a week of colder temperatures. After December, it will be alot colder lol. Webber mentions some changes in the Pacific, but it seems to weaken the pna from where it's been, which has been off the charts negative as of late. Still need a big pattern shakeup imo

[*Flash*]

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Ladies and gentlemen, children of all ages, it's that most sacred time of the year. First NAMing of the year was imminent at 6z.

It's like Christmas Eve. It's not a true NAMing, but you know it's coming. 

 

I'll just go ahead and ask. When you (or anyone) says, 'NAMing', are you referencing model bias with respective to mid-layer thermals/overdone trough amplification? Just want to make sure I follow.

[Mr. Kevin]

3 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

I'll just go ahead and ask. When you (or anyone) says, 'NAMing', are you referencing model bias with respective to mid-layer thermals/overdone trough amplification? Just want to make sure I follow.

Imo, it has the tendency to overhype stuff, or it did in the past alot, only to come back to reality as we got closer. Its actually not as bad as years ago, but the 84hr frames definitely need to be taken with a grain of salt. I know that can be with all models, but the nam was notorious with it