Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Mr. Kevin]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

 

That's much closer to a classic Nina H placement. If the MJO is in 8, it should force the high even more East. 

An alutian ridge is good if it poleward, but if its flat, no dice.

[Mr. Kevin]

1 hour ago, John1122 said:

 

That's much closer to a classic Nina H placement. If the MJO is in 8, it should force the high even more East. 

John, what about the hovmoller charts or the olr to show the actual place of mjo? Rmm charts can be misleading 

[*Flash*]

Getting caught up to speed here. I'm not discouraged about the -NAO/-AO progressively positively as this likely needs to happen as part of the teleconnection reshuffle at large. Plus, I gather the sudden shifts (-PNA trending positive) are more telling than the gradual ones (-NAO/-AO trending positive). Big picture, 'tis interesting to note the local effects of negative continental teleconnections when their oceanic counterparts are predominantly east-based outside the MJO. Probably wouldn't hurt for us to bookmark this setup concerning how we torch in a -AO/-NAO. 

Also, these thoughts are entirely raw, but part of me wonders if this first week of January will be a preview of the entire month where a modified AO/NAO signal is really more of an east coast barrier setting up/serving as a suppression block to keep our region within a favorable storm track. Hopefully, that subtropical high parks itself in a good spot for the vast majority of our state. Either way, I'm not bummed about the prospect of coastal ridging potentially creating a bowl effect for a colder central conus. 

[*Flash*]

Also, I know January 2022 is NOT going to be February 2021 redux, but there's some pieces of modeling that perk my antennas in a 'Do certain patterns have recency bias?' direction. Either way, I'm more captivated by big picture trends than entertaining the plume viewers of the world right now. As John's alluded to with his stair-stepping analogy, we can't get to where we want with one leap. It's a stride, not a sprint. Accordingly, this guy's expectations will remain calibrated to synoptic over mesoscale for the time being; albeit, a few token flurries as we wait for a locked in flip would be nice.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Strangely enough, the EPS members from 0z were the best look I've seen from that ensemble for the late weekend system, despite the fact that the OP was washed out:

 

 

I mean, its still not great, but kind of surprising considering we are within around 5 days now and the OP was so washed out. 

6z GEFS has some pretty good hits too, but also some duds. 

[John1122]

The GFS is still chugging for anafrontal snow Sunday night. The UK is downright aggressive with deep South snow in Mississippi in that time-frame. If I recall correctly the GFS found and kept the Christmas Eve anafrontal last year. Eventually others joined it.  The Canadian ticked up a bit from 12z as well. 

The GFS has a second wintery system later in the run at D9. Looks like we are the battle ground area with extreme cold to our north and extreme warmth to our south. I generally will take that, as cold almost always pushes further south than modeled. 

One of my nice snows last year was modeled to be rain and 46 shortly before it happened but the cold pushed all the way to the Apps and it was low 30s and snow here. 

To add on about what Carvers says about January, it was AN for the month here last year and I managed 4 accumulating snow events. 

 

I believe a better early January pattern picture will emerge after these two big storms sort themselves out over the next few days. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Thanks for the heads up on the Ukie, I hadn't even thought to look at it this AM. 

[John1122]

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Thanks for the heads up on the Ukie, I hadn't even thought to look at it this AM. 

I'll be curious about where it goes with this over the next few runs. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Finally starting to see Jan 3-10 timeframe come into focus just a little.  Looks cold and stormy at times from the MS eastward.  Just how far that come southward is up for grabs.  With this setup, I tend to favor west and middle forum areas just a little bit more.  

In general, in the LR modeling has a similar look to the past few days.  Just tough to tell if that is the look or if it is transitioning to another pattern altogether.  Easy to look at a transitional pattern and think it is the next pattern.  I am 50/50 that we are seeing a pattern transition to a more favorable Pacific with some sort of smorgasbord of a -WPO and and EPO ridge(potentially AK block)...OR just a relaxation of the current pattern(and then a return to an Aleutian high.  What I am seeing this morning is a more traditional La Nina high off the West coast.  That would allow the cold to push in waves.  Very much agree with Flash that this looks a lot like last year.  I definitely note that cold fronts are stalling just short of the Apps or at the Apps.  The good thing this time....it is January and the cold is stronger.  Great pattern discussion above.   

Of note, both the ECMWF and GEFS MJO plots depict a stalled MJO on the 7/8 border...hard not to like that.  The actual MJO itself is almost in 8 today.  There is a risk it could loop back to 6 in the very LR.  But Daniel Boone made some great points about the water warming in the 7/8/1 regions and potentially allowing the MJO to move into those areas.  Lots of uncertainty, but the fickle MJO looks decent today. Oddly, the GEFS has come around...While it is not to be trusted in MJO IMHO opinion, the model easily has the best look for winter and its LR is finally in sync with its actual MJO look.  The ECMWF isn't too far from that look.  I alway note that when discussion veers away from the MJO, it must be in decent territory or headed that way.  When it is the main subject of discussion, our wx pattern is hot garbage.  LOL.  

[fountainguy97]

Gfs reversing course this morning. 12z will be interesting. Kind of surprised about how slow the boards are about this event. A non-zero chance of atleast flurries for a decent size section of the SE. 

 

GFS has been very consistent with a threat. I'd rather have it on my side than EURO right now.

[Mr. Kevin]

The Pacific is always good to have on your side when it comes to colder weather. We want both, but tough to get both for too long imo. I believe the Pacific will turn around for a while to favor cold for us, but perhaps it lasts longer than people believe it will. 

[Mr. Kevin]

The pna with its relaxation of being so negative will help allow cold to be further east and south. Always tough to time everything together. 

[Carvers Gap]

Was just digging back through the December thread, pretty amazing to see modeling pinpoint this upcoming timeframe for both cold and rain.  @Holston_River_Rambler,  the EPS may have hit this rain at max range.   If the cold arrives on Sunday/Monday, it was hit at max range as well by almost all globals.  The CMC may have again shown its worth.  Again, modeling has done really well this winter with the overall longwave pattern at 500.  It wasn't so great during November, but has been decent since then.  The Euro Weeklies may have had the Jan 3 shot around December 13th.  I can remember when modeling had almost no skill past 7-8 days.  Now, it is still pretty sketch after those timeframes, but decent work by those 0s and 1s.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

Kind of surprised about how slow the boards are about this event.

I'm just kind of wary of a rug pull. But that's probably just a personal problem with me lol. 

The NAM looked good at the end of its run. The SLP was running way out N and E  near Erie, PA ahead of the shortwave digging out the trough over the Red River valley: 

 

The energy dropping in looked better on the 6z Euro to, compared to 0z. 

[tnweathernut]

Winter threats for the 2nd and for the 7th are still there on the 12z GFS.  Good to see large highs crashing the upper midwest and systems developing across the south.  Will be hard to time one up, but the ducks look like they are on the pond the first week or so of January.

[Bigbald]

7 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

Winter threats for the 2nd and for the 7th are still there on the 12z GFS.  Good to see large highs crashing the upper midwest and systems developing across the south.  Will be hard to time one up, but the ducks look like they are on the pond the first week or so of January.

Downright frigid through 240

[tnweathernut]

Probably going to be a snow/ice to rain threat around 300 from the looks of the upper levels and the surface temps.

[Bigbald]

Hopefully the 12z comes to fruition through 250, lots of single digit lows in there several days post front.  Hopefully this can give the ski industry a chance to play catch up, which is taking an absolute drumming right now even as far north as places like Snowshoe.  

[Bigbald]

A good learning opportunity for me and potentially others.  Depicted below is the 2nd front on both 12z cmc and gfs at roughly the same time.  Cmc does not drive the front through the apps but seems to hang up.  12z gfs pushes it past the Apps and results in a much colder look.  What's the difference? The angle of the front on cmc driving more south/southwest (texas) (?).

[Holston_River_Rambler]

@Bigbald

Part of it is how much the shortwave digs. The CMC is a much flatter look, so you don't get a SLP to develop and strengthen as far south:

CMC:

 

GFS

 

The amplification of that shortwave has a lot to do with how they handle the big ridge over AK and the PNA ridging

CMC:

 

 

GFS:

The GFS rotates the ridging equatorward, and that helps the shortwave dig downstream. Th CMC rotates it westward and so not as much amplification is forced. 

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS and CMC and their ensembles continue to look good.  Looks like several opportunities are on the table.  The ensembles are quite cold.

[Carvers Gap]

If you all want to see a MONSTER EPO/PNA, take a look at the GEPS at 12z in the LR.  Wow.  That'll do it.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GEFS has similar look(to the GEPS) but further west.  Both looks will work in the LR.  Those looks, if we can get split flow, are excellent for winter in the east.  Big red ball is in the right place for now.  LOL.

@Blue Moon, keep us updated on the severe!

[Mr Bob]

Hey @Blue Moon , we do have a severe thread in the sub forum...FYI...

[Carvers Gap]

Nice PNA/EPO signature on the 12z EPS.  It does create a chinook which scours a lot of the cold out of NA.  Always something! As each trough pushes through the ridge reforms slightly west of its previous position.  It may well be that a formidable EPO eventually builds and cold empties back into NA in a pinwheel fashion as cold wraps around the vortex over Greenland.  Looks like a good pattern but a period of moderation over central and western Canada.  Would be our luck to finally get a good pattern and the source region be less than optimal.  The GEFS and GEPS look much better in terms of source regions.  I suspect there would be enough cold given it is January and AN air masses to our north are still often BN if they can get here in decent shape.

[Carvers Gap]

On the plus side, the CFSv2 has now flipped Jan to seasonal to BN here.  As @Mr. Kevincorrectly noted, where the CFS goes towards right before January is often telling.  The CFSv2 extended(comes out 4x per day) is pretty cold for most of its run at 12z...but keeping' it real, it is cold pretty much all of the time.  It is the ying to the EPS yang.   

[Carvers Gap]

Another nice look on the 18z GFS at 102.

[fountainguy97]

Gfs 18z more southern separation. Gets a little tilt on the southern end and boom back to the snowier solution.  This is kuchera as well. 

A bit more tilt and it's a major major event.

[Carvers Gap]

1060 hp in southern Alberta at 210 on the 18z GFS.

[TellicoWx]

Really interested to see the 0z runs tonight...while the GFS OP has been on/off again for the weekend..its had little GEFS support. 18z GEFS starting to support the snowier OP run this time. Roughly 8/20 members now have a decent system.