Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Coach B]

44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

January 84 is nearly a perfect analog.  

@John1122anything spectacular in January/February of 84?  I remember those months as being ho-hum...but I was young and could be wrong.  It is triple weighted in yesterday's analog package.

The January 84 dates coincided with a 3.5" snow in Nashville that laid on the ground for over a week due to a major cold shot that included four days in a row with below 0 lows! The double weighted February 97 dates were nothing to write home about though. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Wurbus said:

I do like the upcoming potential pattern. With that being said, there was 1 GEFS member that plastered East TN with 24+ inches that is skewing the snow mean I think.

Re: 6z GEFS snow totals....I count ~14/30 members with 6" or more for NE TN w/ plenty of big dogs.  That was a good run.

 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Coach B said:

The January 84 dates coincided with a 3.5" snow in Nashville that laid on the ground for over a week due to a major cold shot that included four days in a row with below 0 lows! The double weighted February 97 dates were nothing to write home about though. 

Yes.  Good call.  I remember that now.  I remember riding in the backseat of my parents car, and the inside of the windows were frozen.  LOL.  Yeah, those late 90s dates I stay away from.  You may already have seen this...those late 90s dates have been in their analog packages for much of the month of January.  I think they must be using them to buffer the extreme cold runs which are not verifying often.  

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z GFS is loaded for bear yet again.  

[Weathertree2]

24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 12z GFS is loaded for bear yet again.  

That is some real-deal vodka cold in the Northern Plains, -45 wow, just one good system could pull that down right?

[Carvers Gap]

25 minutes ago, Weathertree2 said:

That is some real-deal vodka cold in the Northern Plains, -45 wow, just one good system could pull that down right?

The really strong cold has been a mirage on recent modeling - meaning it hasn't verified.  That said, we are looking at a gradient pattern where the cold runs west-> east in a horizontal line.  It does this repeatedly.  All we need is one system to ride that gradient, and we get a potent system.  No idea if that verifies, but anything close would result in multiple storms to track I would think.  

[Carvers Gap]

28 minutes ago, Weathertree2 said:

That is some real-deal vodka cold in the Northern Plains, -45 wow, just one good system could pull that down right?

...and to further add.  We take cold in February and roll the dice.  The storm pattern looks reasonably active, and confluence appears over this region for this go around.  That is still in the 7-10 day range, so it could change.  However, when the GFS begins to show multiple storms in the LR(on the same run...run after run), there is a good chance someone connects.

[Carvers Gap]

Strong cold signal on both the 12 CMC and GFS.  CMC is very dry which is similar to the Jan '84 analog.  The GFS is storm.  However, BOTH have mechanisms in place to deliver very cold air into the Lower 48 from the Rockies eastward.  If modeling handles this like they did the Jan 20-30th, the cold is over-done but the storm track remains active.  Just because we didn't get hammered between the 20-30th, doesn't mean it wasn't stormy.  We just missed on a couple which happens during the winter more often than not.  If those models are correct and if snow precedes the cold shot...record lows are on the table. 

[John1122]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Pacific dominated ridging without Atlantic blocking is cutter city.  It is why folks in middle and west TN like the PNA/EPO ridges.  We(in E TN) really need Atlantic blocking to accentuate the pattern here.  That said a combo of a cutter and a caboose system following will suffice or a 50/50 low.  Also, if we get a ridge out west which isn't too tall, we can get clippers or northern stream systems.  In E TN it is more of a nickel and dime your way to average approach.  

...All of that said, the 6s GEFS has really beefed up its snow mean.  I suspect (certainly don't guarantee) that February could be a good month.  February of 14-15 was really good.  CPC has flipped us cold for the second week of January.  Here are the analogs for the d8-14.  I accidentally found this analog a couple of days ago when I entered in January 85 as January 84.  January 84 is nearly a perfect analog.  

@John1122anything spectacular in January/February of 84?  I remember those months as being ho-hum...but I was young and could be wrong.  It is triple weighted in yesterday's analog package.

 

 

January and February 1984 were awesome here for winter weather. We had 14 inches of snow in January. A 4 inch event, a 3 inch event a few days later and a 7 inch event a few days after that. There were two days of well below zero cold and several more near zero. February was a roller coaster but we got a foot that month. 7 inches early in the month on the 6th and 5 inches on leap day. The early February event had a -7 low in its wake. 

Looking at observations it was a northern Plateau pattern. Oneida and Jamestown have similar numbers. Numbers taper off south or east of those areas but I never trust airport data. To many M's that happen around snowfall days. 

[Wintersnow888]

Well Cumberland county is letting kids out of school at 1:00.....just heard

 

Because of incoming snow storm my message said

[Carvers Gap]

8 minutes ago, John1122 said:

January and February 1984 were awesome here for winter weather. We had 14 inches of snow in January. A 4 inch event, a 3 inch event a few days later and a 7 inch event a few days after that. There were two days of well below zero cold and several more near zero. February was a roller coaster but we got a foot that month. 7 inches early in the month on the 6th and 5 inches on leap day. The early February event had a -7 low in its wake. 

Looking at observations it was a northern Plateau pattern. Oneida and Jamestown have similar numbers. Numbers taper off south or east of those areas but I never trust airport data. To many M's that happen around snowfall days. 

Awesome info.  And yes, the Ms are suspicious.  I am fine taking a swing at that type of pattern, even if we miss.  Honestly, after looking at the 12z GFS....I will be ready for spring if that is even close to correct.

For everyone else, you can thank me...I went out and set up my hoop house for the garden and got the cold frames out yesterday.  I turned the garden over with the tiller.  I am going to try to get some cold crop stuff in the ground early - or not.  The thought crossed my mind that snow could be a problem for the hoop house, but I forged ahead anyway.  LOL.  Honestly, I try to get those out about 2 weeks prior to planting cold crops.  They warm the ground up.  The BIG problem...if the GFS/CMC are right, it will be tough to do much in the way of gardening.  I am good with snow...just no ice on the hoop house, which means ice is coming.  LOL.  My hoop house and cold frames are out early, but the reality is that it may not matter.  

Fun story, I told you all about fingers getting cold from working in the frozen raised beds.  My wedding ring fell off, and I didn't notice it.  I used a metal detector to find it.  You might ask why I have a metal detector around the house.  I have had to find it before in the garden.  This marks 3 times finding it in the garden.  Once, I lost it for a year and a half...it was in the garage under a shelf.  We moved some stuff, and there it was.  Tolkien would be proud.  

[Math/Met]

It looks like potential mountain wave event is showing up for next Wednesday/Thursday on the GFS and Euro. I normally wouldn’t mention it this far in advance, but this has been the longest I can ever remember without a legitimate mountain wave event. I know MRX issued a high wind warning at least once this season, but I didn’t consider that to be a true mountain wave event. A lot can change between now and then, but it’s something to watch.

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS sure likes like a multi-day over-running event.  It looks like a more traditional event than last year.  The front pushes and the firehose is pointed at the boundary as it presses(vs stalls like last year).

[Weathertree2]

30 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GFS sure likes like a multi-day over-running event.  It looks like a more traditional event than last year.  The front pushes and the firehose is pointed at the boundary as it presses(vs stalls like last year).

I must have missed that hardly seeing a thing for my area. You mean pattern wise?

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Weathertree2 said:

I must have missed that hardly seeing a thing for my area. You mean pattern wise?

Yes.  Out that far, I don't really do details unless just bored.  It is almost a continual stream of moisture.  It is basically the same set-up (just a different variation) of what has been shown for days.  For me the question (as it was with the blizzard this weekend) is where it will occur.  I won't say it is a given, but modeling has that look on almost every run.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Weathertree2 said:

I must have missed that hardly seeing a thing for my area. You mean pattern wise?

Really what I look for is energy in the jet and whether it passes to our south.  If that is the case, we have a shot at wintry precip.  Looks like a couple of chances between now and Feb 7th.  Next weekend is a timeframe to watch.  I tend to think middle and west TN would have a really good chance with this.  Some runs send it to your west.  Some press the boundary very quietly southeastward.  Just watch where the cold air sets up and that is where the energy is going to slide along.  System after that is the one that has potential though if it doesn't get overly suppressed.  As I noted earlier, February systems tend to be under modeled.  They often will gain strength over time on modeling.  Also, clippers can pack a punch during February for the same reason.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z Euro marches snow and ice across the state later next week:

 

1040ish High over the Lakes. 

[RawCrabMeat]

10 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z Euro marches snow and ice across the state later next week:

 

1040ish High over the Lakes. 

Ouch, they're sniffing something out though. I believe that's the same timeframe that had 3 straight footers on the Gfs then poof

[Bigbald]

One definitely can't call the 12z runs boring, alot of activity even if we aren't showing up as perfect hits on every storm.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

10 minutes ago, RawCrabMeat said:

Ouch, they're sniffing something out though

Probably won't be too painful. It's the Euro after all. Now if the reliable GFS was showing ice...... 

 

[John1122]

Lots of honking for a big ice storm, a devastating one in Western areas. Crazy that the GFS had that look at D15 or 16. 

The Euro and UKMet spread winter across the state. 

[John1122]

The UKIE shows this but looking at 850s, almost all of it would be freezing rain from around Nashville East. 

[AMZ8990]

12 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Lots of honking for a big ice storm, a devastating one in Western areas. Crazy that the GFS had that look at D15 or 16. 

The Euro and UKMet spread winter across the state. 

I’ll pass on the Ice Storm.  Just hoping for a good snow before winter leaves us for the year.  I agree with your sentiment about the GFS too, it’s been really impressive at times sniffing out storms in the long range.

[John1122]

The MJO right now, looks like it will spend the first half of February in Phase 3. That's one of the best places it can be for winter for the Tennessee Valley area. 

[John1122]

The trend has been East and South lately with storms.  Hopefully the Euro fired a shot that the GFS caves to like it did last week with a major S/E trend. Another 150 miles south and 150 miles East to that low track would be a much better solution for us. The Euro shifted that far or further from 0z to 12z. 

[Daniel Boone]

6 hours ago, John1122 said:

The trend has been East and South lately with storms.  Hopefully the Euro fired a shot that the GFS caves to like it did last week with a major S/E trend. Another 150 miles south and 150 miles East to that low track would be a much better solution for us. The Euro shifted that far or further from 0z to 12z. 

You would think that will be the case with the MJO in ph. 3 if it influences enough as well.

[Jed33]

My my what a run by the 0z GFS! Gotta wonder if that’s what February and March 1960 would have looked like if you could have run it back in the day! 

[jaxjagman]

Rossby wave is going to work its way into the IO the next few days and a Kelvin Wave coming off Africa during the same period,plus you have a TC,MJO signal could and should get stronger into the IO

[Weathertree2]

19 hours ago, jaxjagman said:

Rossby wave is going to work its way into the IO the next few days and a Kelvin Wave coming off Africa during the same period,plus you have a TC,MJO signal could and should get stronger into the IO

This implies a continuation of the current pattern?

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Weathertree2 said:

This implies a continuation of the current pattern?

Not sure yet.CFS is parking the signal into the Maritime and Euro seemingly,that should possibly be severe leading into or around Met spring.