Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[PowellVolz]

Cutters are not always a bad thing. It will lay some snow pack to our NW and possibly provide some blocking to force one SE of our area. On the other hand I feel like several cutters in a row might help establish SER and bring it further NW.


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[Daniel Boone]

When we needed a sw Atlantic Ridge,or an east based ser if you will,  we don't get one i.e, this upcoming system. 

    The past week and a half has really been a disappointment in this location overall. Clippers went North, SS systems South. 

   

[Carvers Gap]

30 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Cutters are not always a bad thing. It will lay some snow pack to our NW and possibly provide some blocking to force one SE of our area. On the other hand I feel like several cutters in a row might help establish SER and bring it further NW.


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Ditto.  Cutters, if cold is available in plentiful quantities (which it is), will often press the cold eastward.  Looks to me like the cutter creates a gradient pattern in its wake which the next storm will slide along and then turn northward at some point in its journey across the SE.

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

When we needed a sw Atlantic Ridge,or an east based ser if you will,  we don't get one i.e, this upcoming system. 

    The past week and a half has really been a disappointment in this location overall. Clippers went North, SS systems South. 

   

True!  We were past due for some duds.  I think the forum area hit on three out of four (maybe five) storms straight.   How do you feel about the pattern after the cutter?

[Daniel Boone]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

True!  We were past due for some duds.  I think the forum area hit on three out of four (maybe five) storms straight.   How do you feel about the pattern after the cutter?

Tbh, undetermined as so many variables vying for control.

     MJO warm phases coupled with Nina in Feb. is as you know a strong undesirable combo. Hopefully,we can get it in strong cold phases. However, WPO and EPO have been flexing pretty good so, my best guess is a combative pattern with troughs rather progressive if MJO doesn't go predominately in cold phases in FEB. . Of course old fashioned blocking style would help as well.

   That's my old school relic wag, lol

    

[PowellVolz]

Maybe I haven’t been paying attention but what’s MRX seeing that the mods are not? I haven’t seen anything that suggests anything more than light snow showers around Knoxville.

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[Carvers Gap]

38 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Maybe I haven’t been paying attention but what’s MRX seeing that the mods are not? I haven’t seen anything that suggests anything more than light snow showers around Knoxville.
 

 

 

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Looks about right.  TBD snow amounts with the northern stream feature for TRI, SW VA, and SE KY.  Looks more nuisance variety to me.  Anything from a trace to 2” is possible with cold air already in place and ground temps cold.  Southwest facing slopes should see the most.  KPT is a tougher sell on this.  

[Carvers Gap]

Good write up by MRX....

SR

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)...

Key Messages:

1. A wintry mix of of rain and snow is possible on Friday changing
to all snow late in the day as colder air arrives. Impactful snow
accumulations will be possible across the mountains of East
Tennessee and higher elevations of southwest Virginia.

2. Frigid temperatures are expected Friday night through Saturday
night with wind chills well below 0 across the higher elevations.

3. Warming temperatures expected early next week with above normal
temperatures and increasing rain chances late next week.

Discussion:

A strong shortwave will dive southeastward from the upper Mississippi
Valley on Friday morning with a strong 130 kt jet streak across the
Tennessee Valley. A surface cold front extending from a surface low
across Canada will slide southeastward with shallow, Arctic air
making its way southward on Friday. As this upper jet streak shifts
eastward, and this northern shortwave phases with a southern
shortwave vort max, the upper trough will amplify across the Eastern
CONUS and a surface low will quickly develop and strengthen off the
coast of South Carolina. Cross sections show a mid-level frontal
slope from 850mb to 500mb across western NC and along the TN/NC
mountains late Friday with widespread precipitation near this
feature. The GFS and NAM show this expanding shield of light
precipitation across far eastern Tennessee and western North
Carolina late Friday with the bulk of precipitation east of our
forecast area. However, current guidance does place zones along the
TN/NC state line within a region of favorable omega and some weak
conditional instability beneath the upper trough axis late Friday
afternoon which could enhance snowfall rates across the higher
elevations of the far eastern Tennessee mountains.

As this system moves northeast, NW winds will be relatively strong
across the region Friday night with continued low-level moisture
within the -12 to -18C DGZ from air sources from the CCB and Great
Lakes. This will be a favorable setup for efficient NW flow snowfall
and significant snow accumulations across the higher elevations.
Will withhold on any Winter Storm Watch for now, but if trends
continue to favor potential significant snowfall, winter weather
headlines will be needed within the next 24 hours for the mountains.

Temperatures will be cold enough on Friday night and Saturday
morning that minimum temperatures across the mountains will be in
the single digits with wind chills near -10 to -15F across the
higher terrain above 3500 feet elevation. A Wind Chill Advisory or
Wind Chill Warning may be needed as we get closer to the event.

With this very amplified system, the cold, Arctic airmass will
settle across the region on Saturday. We will likely see a 48 hour
period with most locations below freezing.

With this amplified pattern, ridging begins to build back in on
Sunday and Monday with temperatures rising above normal by Tuesday
of next week. With high pressure in control, expect a mostly sunny
sky and dry conditions.

Deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show strong ridging
across the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians toward the
middle of next week with temperatures above normal. This southerly
flow will result in increased moisture across the region with an
area of heavy rainfall expected somewhere from the lower Mississippi
Valley to the Southern Appalachians. Details on the exact moisture
axis are still uncertain, but it appears a more warm and wet pattern
is coming late next week with colder air likely in its wake.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

18z 3k NAM actually had what looked to me like an arctic front producing snow as it crossed TN between hour 40 and 50. 

[ShawnEastTN]

18z 3k NAM actually had what looked to me like an arctic front producing snow as it crossed TN between hour 40 and 50. 

That could be interesting. That sort of look from previous arctic fronts while moisture starved have great rates and heavy thumping for short duration, a snow squall type event. While it may only snow for an hour or so that arctic front type event can put down 2" in spots in that hour.

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[Holston_River_Rambler]

29 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

That could be interesting. That sort of look from previous arctic fronts while moisture starved have great rates and heavy thumping for short duration, a snow squall type event. While it may only snow for an hour or so that arctic front type event can put down 2" in spots in that hour.

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I have a good memory for one from Jan. 1994, I think. Only one I can remember off the top of my head. I came through just after dark and I remember what you describe on my back deck in Kingsport. I don't remember the exact date, but the experience. 

[Jed33]

Yes these kinds of fronts can put down some snow, especially if a “wave” develops along the front. I’ll put one of my favorites in the historical thread. The cold air can squeeze out just about every bit of moisture.

[fountainguy97]

This weekend sure went poof. Even for NW flow.  Bleh.  

IF we end up cold and snowless like the GFS more or less shows tonight it won't be long before I'll be hoping for spring and warmth.

[Windspeed]

This weekend sure went poof. Even for NW flow.  Bleh.  

IF we end up cold and snowless like the GFS more or less shows tonight it won't be long before I'll be hoping for spring and warmth.

Oh ye of little faith...

[TellicoWx]

11 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Oh ye of little faith...

Definitely a better run for the NW flow folks...can also see the embedded streaks of heavier precip in the 0z 3K.

[TellicoWx]

So far all 0z modeling looking a little better (NAM, RGEM, ICON) for NW flow areas

[John1122]

RGEM ratio'd also looks pretty good for a widespread inch or two. If it doesn't melt tomorrow, and it shouldn't, I'll have maintained snow cover. My grandmother always said that snow that lays around in the shade is waiting on the next one. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

RGEM ratio'd also looks pretty good for a widespread inch or two. If it doesn't melt tomorrow, and it shouldn't, I'll have maintained snow cover. My grandmother always said that snow that lays around in the shade is waiting on the next one. 

    My Dad used to say that. Wasn't always the case of course. Fond memories.

     I was up Norton today and they still have snow cover on level ground and North facing, shady areas. Large piles still in parking Lots.

[John1122]

18 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

    My Dad used to say that. Wasn't always the case of course. Fond memories.

     I was up Norton today and they still have snow cover on level ground and North facing, shady areas. Large piles still in parking Lots.

Same here, except for the parking lot piles. People don't often get their lots graded here. But north and east facing places still have snow. My back steps still have it and part of the yard. 

[John1122]

Cash me out for winter if we get this. 

Most of this falls at D9 too, so not total fantasy land. Gonna be a huge storm for someone from Missouri to the Carolinas. Who will be a mystery. Bitter below 0 cold behind it. Not as extreme as 06z. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

For your model watching pleasure, Tropical Tidbits had some kind of an overhaul last night and now has extra hours and a bunch of extra parameters for the Euro. 

[Mrwolf1972]

Nice setup for Eastern ten at 210 on the gfs 06 a foot in the valley id take that for the last storm of the winter. 

[brewman22001]

7 hours ago, John1122 said:

Cash me out for winter if we get this. 

Most of this falls at D9 too, so not total fantasy land. Gonna be a huge storm for someone from Missouri to the Carolinas. Who will be a mystery. Bitter below 0 cold behind it. Not as extreme as 06z. 

 

I will take this and happily cash out for the winter!!  We need a snow like this in the valley ❄️❄️

[Carvers Gap]

6z GFS also went big again.  

[jaxjagman]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

For your model watching pleasure, Tropical Tidbits had some kind of an overhaul last night and now has extra hours and a bunch of extra parameters for the Euro. 

ECMWF added stuff also,but some plots dont seem to update well in North America

 

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts

[jaxjagman]

7 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

ECMWF added stuff also,but some plots dont seem to update well in North America

 

https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/opencharts

If they would fix North America,you wouldnt have to spend no more money,thats alot of charts they put out

[Carvers Gap]

Kind of a cool story.  It has been snowing in Jerusalem.  Northern Israel received a bunch a few days ago.  It is not as rare as some report, but it it still a beautiful place when it snows.  I spent two summers in Israel many years ago, so I tend to follow things a little more closely there than I would have otherwise. One of their biggest snows came on December 13, 2013.  FUN FACT.....If that date rings a bell, that is the very date that our Tennessee Valley sub-forum was formed!!!  Below is a 500 map of the US during Dec  2013 and a map of the the current d10-15(2022) 6z GEFS at 500.  What followed this look was a pretty good weather pattern.  Obviously, our past December didn't look like that, but that is the pattern over the US when Jerusalem received a ton of snow in 2013.  

https://www.timesofisrael.com/snow-blankets-jerusalem-transforming-city-into-winter-wonderland/

 

 

Thunder in the mountains....snow in Jerusalem.  I had some friends living over there at the time.  I remember looking at these awesome snow photos.  Below is what eventually would follow Dec of 2013.  This it the Jan-Feb '14 500mb anomaly map....a pretty good pattern if you dig back through the threads.

 

Maybe we have an active February and/or March coming up???  

 

 

[Daniel Boone]

11 hours ago, John1122 said:

Same here, except for the parking lot piles. People don't often get their lots graded here. But north and east facing places still have snow. My back steps still have it and part of the yard. 

Your location John is alot like the Norton area irt temps and Snowfall. Wise , just a couple miles north of Norton has a seasonal Snowfall avg. of 48" (Wise Airport). It is about 500 ft. Higher however. Norton's is probably 32 to 35" just guessing.

    So, ur are definitely in a sweet spot . 

[PowellVolz]

Cash me out for winter if we get this. 
Most of this falls at D9 too, so not total fantasy land. Gonna be a huge storm for someone from Missouri to the Carolinas. Who will be a mystery. Bitter below 0 cold behind it. Not as extreme as 06z. 
 

Just give me a 1/4 of this and I’ll be satisfied


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[Mrwolf1972]

12z gfs still showing major snow storm around the 5th for east Tennessee.