Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

In addition to the sever wx tomorrow and tomorrow night(I leave severe wx discussion to those folks as I don't track it much), we may get some of @Holston_River_Rambler's rainfall tomorrow.  We need it.  Just planted my garlic(late due to supply chain issues), so the water will be nice.  Just hope we don't need a boat!  TRI still on the lighter side of amounts as we have been for several months. 

 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

12z GFS back to a nice wave riding the front idea. In fact, I like the 12z's take pretty well:

There's an extra piece of vorticity that dives in and helps amp the wave that was trying to flatten. 

That scenario pops a lee side low in the Upstate of SC, and that is pretty nice for eastern sections. 

[Carvers Gap]

Been out enjoying the gorgeous weather before big changes next week.  Actually was able to wear shorts and a t-shirt on my run today, a rarity during late December.  

So far, modeling looks pretty similar to overnight runs.  Didn't have a lot to add this morning and don't have a lot to add right now.  Cold shot set to arrive on Jan 3rd.  Modeling has been remarkably consistent with this time frame for nearly 10-12 days.  A ridge slides through after that.  Modeling differs on when the next cold shot arrives, but likey the 7th through the 10th.  Definitely can see winter on mid and long range modeling.  That is a significant change from two weeks ago.  

[Carvers Gap]

12 hours ago, Spartman said:

Interesting tweet from Dr. Simon Lee regarding about a potential Alaskan Ridge around the middle third of this upcoming January:

 

 

Really interesting Tweet.  12z GFS certainly reflected that.  Watching the GEFS roll as we speak.  Seems like modeling likes the AK block but flirts with re-establishing the Aleutian High.  For at least a time, I think the AK looks likely.  Great find.  Thanks for the share.

[Carvers Gap]

The 12z EPS is now, IMHO, advertising a pattern change.  I have been holding off on that terminology for a bit.  Indeed, it looks there will be a new pattern.  The transition to that new pattern certainly looks like a dominant EPO/PNA ridge which is a reversal from where we are currently.  Is the new pattern a zonal pattern where the trough moves eastward and pulls north?  Sure.  It the new pattern one where there is very cold air being dumped into the eastern US w/ the EPO/PNA pattern continuing?  Sure.  And it could be something entirely new.  Won't rule out a head fake either.  For now, pattern looks good.  GEPS and EPS look quite similar.  

Did the GEFS stop reporting mid-run?  My three sources have it paused. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

7 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Did the GEFS stop reporting mid-run?  My three sources have it paused. 

Yeah NCEP was having some data issues 

[Carvers Gap]

I would add that the transition to that a transition to a new pattern is likely underway or at least a significant pattern disruption.  Cold fronts will press eastward into anomalously warm air.  That in turn will set the state for possibly two severe events, before cold begins to surge eastward.  Looks like a 2-3 day warm-up after the first big front not he 3rd before the next from moves through.  Again, I suspect the new pattern would be cold building in the West and pushing eastward.  The 12z EPS would imply the cold dives into the Plains and spreads eastward which means less modified cold.  

Now, one caveat....the EPS rotates all of the cold eastward, completely emptying the Mountain West of its cold(remains seasonal though).  While I do mention a pattern change/disruption, if that trough simply rotates through, we need the trough to reload and the western ridge to hold, or it may simply reload the old pattern.  MJO will have a say in this.  

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah NCEP was having some data issues 

The big red ball(aka the AH) break it? LOL.  

[Carvers Gap]

36 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Yeah NCEP was having some data issues 

Pretty much the story for December.

[Carvers Gap]

18z GFS loses the first system, but "found" the second one on the 7th.  It is within the realm of reason that the second front could be cold enough to allow for snow if the cold pushes enough.  Modeling definitely favoring the middle and western parts of the forum areas.  VERY similar to last winter in that the SER will fight east of the Plateau.   Need the STJ to become more active.  These fronts are so strong, they are suppressing everything, but when the rebound to warmth occurs, it is nearly equally strong.

[John1122]

More commonalities between this December and 1984. Parts of Alaska are setting record highs. The previous records were set in late December 1984. 

[Mr. Kevin]

11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

18z GFS loses the first system, but "found" the second one on the 7th.  It is within the realm of reason that the second front could be cold enough to allow for snow if the cold pushes enough.  Modeling definitely favoring the middle and western parts of the forum areas.  VERY similar to last winter in that the SER will fight east of the Plateau.   Need the STJ to become more active.  These fronts are so strong, they are suppressing everything, but when the rebound to warmth occurs, it is nearly equally strong.

The issue now is the losing of the nao/ao moving forward with the aam dropping. We definitely need a Pacific shuffle or we in deep doo doo lol

[Mr. Kevin]

2 minutes ago, John1122 said:

More commonalities between this December and 1984. Parts of Alaska are setting record highs. The previous records were set in late December 1984. 

Only thing I doubt is back then there was an ongoing SSW event that profiled onto the pattern and got cold for a month and a half. We dont have that now john I dont think. Hopefully we get a SSW event this winter 

[Carvers Gap]

1 minute ago, Mr. Kevin said:

The issue now is the losing of the nao/ao moving forward with the aam dropping. We definitely need a Pacific shuffle or we in deep doo doo lol

Well, let's enjoy 2-3 cold shots to start January before we worry about an indefinite torch.  We could end up wishing our lives away for the perfect pattern.   Bottom line, winter is not over yet.  

[Carvers Gap]

5 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Only thing I doubt is back then there was an ongoing SSW event that profiled onto the pattern and got cold for a month and a half. We dont have that now john I dont think. Hopefully we get a SSW event this winter 

Pretty sure that we did have an SSW(not huge, but significant enough to perturb the 30mb and 50mb levels) back in mid-December if I remember correctly.   SSWs don't have to result in the splitting of the PV in order to be a strat warm.  One could make the case that the cold coming in early Jan is a direct result of that.  

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS has been all over the place, and I mean all over the place. Just needed to say that before mentioning that the 18z GFS is an excellent winter pattern.  And the pattern switch/relaxation has remained around Jan 3 for the past 10-12 days(noted that before).  The real question is the duration of the pattern/relaxation which brings waves of cold every 2-4 days.  Best guess is that we have a couple of weeks after Jan 3rd of cold/snow.  That is the window at the moment.  I think folks on this subforum have done a really good job of tracking that window.  And let's be honest, that is about how long those windows last in this area, 1-2 weeks of cold at a time.  Would not surprise me in the least to see Cosgrove's thaw after that...and then maybe another chance later in the season if we are fortunate per his forecast.  

I will also echo John's post about '84, the way these troughs are amplifying, an extreme shot of cold is on the table(single digits is extreme in my book).  Just not comfortable in floating that timeframe quite yet.  

[Jed33]

Hey everyone, it’s that time of year. I read a lot but seldom post. I don’t really have a lot to add, Carver, Holston, John, and the rest of you guys do such a great job! Gotta say the current stretch this December has been very similar to 1984. The only thing that really stands out is that in the chart Carver posted of December 1984 temps, December 6-8 was solidly below normal at TRI with a sub freezing high temp of 30 and low of 10 on the 7th. That is a big difference from this year, as so far we haven’t been anywhere near those numbers. (My coldest temp is 20 so far). The rest of the month of December 1984 was much above normal though. I realize that no 2 years are exactly the same though, so that may have little bearing on the rest of the winter. I would imagine though that this December will end up being even warmer than 1984. Hopefully it will flip similar to what happened in January of 1985. Time will tell I guess.

[Mr. Kevin]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The GFS has been all over the place, and I mean all over the place. Just needed to say that before mentioning that the 18z GFS is an excellent winter pattern.  And the pattern switch/relaxation has remained around Jan 3 for the past 10-12 days(noted that before).  The real question is the duration of the pattern/relaxation which brings waves of cold every 2-4 days.  Best guess is that we have a couple of weeks after Jan 3rd of cold/snow.  That is the window at the moment.  I think folks on this subforum have done a really good job of tracking that window.  And let's be honest, that is about how long those windows last in this area, 1-2 weeks of cold at a time.  Would not surprise me in the least to see Cosgrove's thaw after that...and then maybe another chance later in the season if we are fortunate per his forecast.  

I will also echo John's post about '84, the way these troughs are amplifying, an extreme shot of cold is on the table(single digits is extreme in my book).  Just not comfortable in floating that timeframe quite yet.  

Carver, do u have the 12z eps of the pna, ao, and nao u can post?

[John1122]

33 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Only thing I doubt is back then there was an ongoing SSW event that profiled onto the pattern and got cold for a month and a half. We dont have that now john I dont think. Hopefully we get a SSW event this winter 

I was just nothing how remarkably similar this December has been to 1984. I don't think we are going to see -20s in January. We do stand a very good chance at cooling down in steps.  It was baby steps in 1985. We were very warm 1-2, seasonal 3-5, back AN by the 8th, cold by mid-month, then the bottom fell out for a week from the 19-25th or so, which saw the temp shoot up into the 40s before another front crashed temps to close the month. Where we live it's very hard to have a pattern that doesn't see temps warm in advance of fronts. Staying below freezing for more than 6 or 7 days in a row here is very rare territory. The biggest thing we are seeing is that the pattern looks to shift from endless warmth. If we get a cooperative Pacific I'm pretty happy, come what may after that. It would even be nice to see more of a La Nina pattern develop. We need snow cover and cold air in the Dakotas and Minnesota/Iowa to really get good shots of cold here. All that looks to be underway soon.

[Mr. Kevin]

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

I was just nothing how remarkably similar this December has been to 1984. I don't think we are going to see -20s in January. We do stand a very good chance at cooling down in steps.  It was baby steps in 1985. We were very warm 1-2, seasonal 3-5, back AN by the 8th, cold by mid-month, then the bottom fell out for a week from the 19-25th or so, which saw the temp shoot up into the 40s before another front crashed temps to close the month. Where we live it's very hard to have a pattern that doesn't see temps warm in advance of fronts. Staying below freezing for more than 6 or 7 days in a row here is very rare territory. The biggest thing we are seeing is that the pattern looks to shift from endless warmth. If we get a cooperative Pacific I'm pretty happy, come what may after that. It would even be nice to see more of a La Nina pattern develop. We need snow cover and cold air in the Dakotas and Minnesota/Iowa to really get good shots of cold here. All that looks to be underway soon.

That's good news. Baby steps I suppose john

[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, do u have the 12z eps of the pna, ao, and nao u can post?

I am sure I do.  I normally don't look at them.  I usually just look at the various regions on the map and eyeball it.  I only do this as a hobby, so eyeballing usually has to do.  I will give it a look later this evening.  Just spitballing, In the LR looks like EPO is good, PNA neutral, NAO strongly negative.  AO was likely heading negative late in the run.  Looked very similar to the 18z GFS, but not that extreme.  If it is going to hold, we need the AK block or EPO from the 18z GFS to lock.  John is on the money with that post he just posted.  He is the guru when it comes to unspoiled local climate data and Pacific patterns - I know of none better.   Truly, we want cold being directed into the area and just let the warm GOM waters do their trick.  The cold is the match.  Gotta have it.

[Mr. Kevin]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am sure I do.  I normally don't look at them.  I usually just look at the various regions on the map and eyeball it.  I only do this as a hobby, so eyeballing usually has to do.  I will give it a look later this evening.  Just spitballing, In the LR looks like EPO is good, PNA neutral, NAO strongly negative.  AO was likely heading negative late in the run.  Looked very similar to the 18z GFS, but not that extreme.  If it is going to hold, we need the AK block or EPO from the 18z GFS to lock.  John is on the money with that post he just posted.  He is the guru when it comes to unspoiled local climate data and Pacific patterns - I know of none better.   Truly, we want cold being directed into the area and just let the warm GOM waters do their trick.  The cold is the match.  Gotta have it.

If the nao and ao was negative moving forward, that could be a good sign. Yesterday's run had the ao/nao moving towards neutral

[Carvers Gap]

9 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said:

Carver, do u have the 12z eps of the pna, ao, and nao u can post?

Biggest thing is we are seeing the pattern reshuffle.  We can see the transition.  We just can't really see past the transition period with any rigor at this point.  I definitely see some good things and things which would bring back warmth after mid-Jan. I just don't know past mid-month.  But the first half of the month should be seasonal to slightly BN after the 3rd which is indeed cold since it is January.  Now, just have to wait for the details to come into focus.  IMHO, the thing we really need is an active STJ with frequent systems undercutting the western ridge.  The STJ is the key moving forward....otherwise, going to be dry during those cold snaps.  I am 50/50 on whether it will bring enough precip to up our chances for winter wx.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Mr. Kevin said:

If the nao and ao was negative moving forward, that could be a good sign. Yesterday's run had the ao/nao moving towards neutral

Biggest thing right now, and the GEFS has caved since yesterday at this time, is the elimination/severe weakening of the Aleutian high.  How long it stays gone is anyone's guess.  One step at a time right now.  My guess(and it is a guess) is that we see the Pac drive the pattern through mid-Jan.  Then, it is up for grabs.  

[John1122]

I'm hoping the Euro is correct and the MJO is moving through 8 in mid January. That should promote a favorable PNA going forward. The GFS is lost imo on where the MJO has been and its been lost for a while. The GFS seems to think it crossed through 8 for several days this month. No other MJO modeling shows that. It also had it on the edge of 7/8 when others had it in 6. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Mr. Kevin said:

That's good news. Baby steps I suppose john

Just gave a quick look at the teleconnections on the EPS:

EPO: goes positive and descends to neutral (looks strongly negative on maps...might be a false reading or it is just slightly displaced westward)

PNA: very negative and ascends to barely positive by the end of the run (a BIG reversal)

NAO: negative and goes positive

AO: negative and goes positive

WPO: negative and slow ascending.

First half of January is a month of transition.  The NAO quite likely takes longer than modeled to flip - stubborn feature once in place.  Wouldn't surprise me to see it return.  Overall, looks like a PNA pattern at least temporarily. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

Welcome to the party happy hour of the GEFS.  The 18z GEFs is now cold - very cold at times.  It reflects a similar look now to the 12z EPS.  Slightly displace westward -EPO.  Y'all remember those GEPS runs from a few days ago at the surface?  Like those in regards to temps.  @John1122, looks like a more traditional placement of the eastern Pacific high during a La Nina don't you think?  If it will not retrograde into the Aleutians.....

[Carvers Gap]

Bit of an uptick in the 18 GEFS snow totals.  3.4" or NE TN which is decent.  2" north of 40 for a good chunk of the state of TN....I mean it ain't zero.  LOL.

[John1122]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Welcome to the party happy hour of the GEFS.  The 18z GEFs is now cold - very cold at times.  It reflects a similar look now to the 12z EPS.  Slightly displace westward -EPO.  Y'all remember those GEPS runs from a few days ago at the surface?  Like those in regards to temps.  @John1122, looks like a more traditional placement of the eastern Pacific high during a La Nina don't you think?  If it will not retrograde into the Aleutians.....

 

That's much closer to a classic Nina H placement. If the MJO is in 8, it should force the high even more East. 

[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

I am sure I do.  I normally don't look at them.  I usually just look at the various regions on the map and eyeball it.  I only do this as a hobby, so eyeballing usually has to do.  I will give it a look later this evening.  Just spitballing, In the LR looks like EPO is good, PNA neutral, NAO strongly negative.  AO was likely heading negative late in the run.  Looked very similar to the 18z GFS, but not that extreme.  If it is going to hold, we need the AK block or EPO from the 18z GFS to lock.  John is on the money with that post he just posted.  He is the guru when it comes to unspoiled local climate data and Pacific patterns - I know of none better.   Truly, we want cold being directed into the area and just let the warm GOM waters do their trick.  The cold is the match.  Gotta have it.

Excellent post and points made !!! With the warming in the PAC in the area of PH 7 to 8 MJO reflection, things should continue to get more favorable moving forward from the PAC standpoint. Hopefully, HLB continues to be favorable,of which I think is likely overall, although it may be mainly the NAO. Could be a Jan and Feb 1985 similarity, of which John has been suggesting as a real analogous possibility.