Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

12z GFS is rolling.  I will keep all posts pertaining to this particular run within this one post.  I will update this post as it rolls.  

-Through hour 12...the western ridge is taller and a smidge more eastward.  This may prevent the energy from digging into the SW by a fraction

-At 42, we are approaching the point where it sheered out during the last two runs.  Let's see where it goes.

-At 54, there is slightly less digging...this might make a run for it.

-At 60, it would appear this trough will try to go neutral slightly earlier in the run.  We will see.  All thoughts are my own, and those of a person who does this as a hobby.  LOL.

-At 66 you can toggle back in time with the 500vort maps, and see the correction during the last several runs, ie less erroneous digging into the southwest.

-By 78, the slp along the SE coast is tucked-in right along the coast...that is a change.

-Trailing energy is not as strung out and should allow for the trailing energy to be inputed into the developing coastal storm.  

-By 90, the GFS has the storm closer to the EC.  Not sure this run would help us a ton, but there is a noticeable trend at 66 to correct the over amplification in the southwest.  That in turn is causing the slp just off the EC to track more westward.

-By 96, the storm definitely has received input from the system in the southwest and is neutral to slight neg tilt over the Carolinas.  This looks much more like the system modeled at 12z yesterday but slightly east of that run.  Not sure it can get back this far west during future runs, but that is an improvement.  Over and out.

[Carvers Gap]

With the 12z RGEM also with a coastal storm, I am of the opinion we are now looking at a Nor'Easter.  Not sure we can get into the mix as we are on the far, far western cone.  However, enhanced upslope snowfall by the coastal low is plausible or even likely for the upper 2/3 of E TN.  Not sure highs get out of the mid 20s in E TN for Saturday afternoon to echo John's comments earlier. 

For now, we want to a strong storm which deepens and forms a bit earlier.  With modeling correcting in the southwest, it will be interesting to see where the final correction ends-up.

[Carvers Gap]

It appears the 12z CMC will be rolling on time.  I will place all comments about that run within this single post.

Out to 54, the RGEM appears to be a close copy of the RGEM at 12z.  

Substantial trend westward on the CMC.  Not quite good enough to help yet, but one more trend like that....

[Carvers Gap]

Last comment until the Euro rolls.  The 12z GFS has a cutter (after the coastal this weekend) which drives the boundary southwestward.  It is the storm after that which interests me.  

[fountainguy97]

Think our chances of cashing in on the bomb are down toward zero at this point. We need a 250mile+ shift west with the timing of negative tilt to even be in the game.  And even then not sure the precip shield gets into TN. So we can kiss that solution goodbye.

E TN could still get some overrunning front side and NW flow on the backside from this but even then, looks to end up on the lighter 2-4inch side of things

[Icy Hot]

2 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Think our chances of cashing in on the bomb are down toward zero at this point. We need a 250mile+ shift west with the timing of negative tilt to even be in the game.  

E TN could still get some overunning/NW flow from this but even then looks to end up on the lighter 2-4inch side of things

But FT do you realize 2-4 would be epic for those of us in TRI who keep getting shut out.

[Silas Lang]

5 minutes ago, Icy Hot said:

But FT do you realize 2-4 would be epic for those of us in TRI who keep getting shut out.

I just want a solid 3. Then I will gladly bow out for the year. I don't need a monster. 

 

[Carvers Gap]

56 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Think our chances of cashing in on the bomb are down toward zero at this point. We need a 250mile+ shift west with the timing of negative tilt to even be in the game.  And even then not sure the precip shield gets into TN. So we can kiss that solution goodbye.

E TN could still get some overrunning front side and NW flow on the backside from this but even then, looks to end up on the lighter 2-4inch side of things

True.  I would gladly take 1-2" of snow with the cold that will follow.  Also, with 70-80 hours to go on this thing, I expect one more big jump in modeling as it gets closer to NA and gets sampled well.

[Carvers Gap]

Kind of raising our eyes past the weekend storm's horizon...Don't look now, but the GEFS now has a full fledged AK block late in its run.  That forces the cold eastward.  I had at one point though the clock might run out on winter around Feb 2.  I think It plausible that we get to at least the 10th...  The 12z GEPS has a monster EPO(kind of PNA) block as well.  That trough which is going to go out West...it is modeled to roll right back into the East.  Good changes/trends from the past couple of days.  That may very well be the new pattern...If it is, we may get a couple of bonus weeks of tracking during February.  That is a month which is known for frequent storms and changing wavelengths.  IF IF that is real, that is a 14-15 type of set-up to me, ie cold an e plentiful precip.  If that AK block is real, it might be tough to move.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks to me like modeling was possibly too quick in breaking down the pattern....OR the new pattern is just a reset of the current Pac pattern which we are in.  That is splitting hairs slightly.  So, if modeling is correct and is not erroneously perpetuating cold(that has happened before), looks like a warm-up for the first few days of February as cold pulls back into the West....and then the trough quickly gets pushed back eastward.  That look late in the runs of the 12z GEFS/GEPS could deliver extreme cold if the look is real.

[Carvers Gap]

February 2015 and comparison to the d10-15 means of the 12z GEPS and GEFS.  Not saying that happens, but that is a bit uncanny.

 

[Carvers Gap]

No idea if it is even close to being right, but the 12z Euro ends with the coldest setup of the season IMHO.

[nrgjeff]

Maybe we can get some severe weather ahead of that front. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

40 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Maybe we can get some severe weather ahead of that front. 

As long as it’s just mostly severe and not entirely severe.

 

Got to have that thunder in the mountains. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 

[Carvers Gap]

19 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

As long as it’s just mostly severe and not entirely severe.
 

Got to have that thunder in the mountains. 

We have definitely run out of the TIM model mojo.  Time to put some deposits back in the account.  Just thunder...nothing dangerous.

[Carvers Gap]

14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

 

Be ready for some changes in modeling when that occurs. 

[Windspeed]

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Speaking of the 18z NAM it actually gets a smidge of Gulf moisture back into East TN:

[Silas Lang]

My feeling right now:

[Silas Lang]

In all seriousness, the GFS looks pretty close to the NAM. 

[John1122]

The GFS was a massive shift west into North Carolina with the snow shield. I don't know if we can get another one like that, but if we did it would be a very nice event for East Tennessee even at lower elevations. 

[Windspeed]

The GFS was a massive shift west into North Carolina with the snow shield. I don't know if we can get another one like that, but if we did it would be a very nice event for East Tennessee even at lower elevations. 

There were some notable upstream changes in modeling today that are starting to play out with some westward shift. We likely do not have enough downstream blocking to lock in a significant inland shift, but even a further slight shift and readjustment over the coast on the 0z & 6z suites would significantly increase accumulation potential for the eastern Valley. Obviously Western-Central VA/NC and the Blue Ridge would end up the big winners. Just hoping we at least get some kind of accumulation along the I-75 and I-81 corridors beyond a dusting. There are apparently going to be some Gulf Stream flight datasets for a later time that could further change modeling suites tomorrow. Edit: Thursday. We shall see...

[John1122]

8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

15 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS was a massive shift west into North Carolina with the snow shield. I don't know if we can get another one like that, but if we did it would be a very nice event for East Tennessee even at lower elevations. 

There were some notable upstream changes in modeling today that are starting to play out with some westward shift. We likely do not have enough downstream blocking to lock in a significant inland shift, but even a further slight shift and readjustment over the coast on the 0z & 6z suites would significantly increase accumulation potential for the eastern Valley. Obviously Western-Central VA/NC and the Blue Ridge would end up the big winners. Just hoping we at least get some kind of accumulation along the I-75 and I-81 corridors beyond a dusting. There are apparently going to be some Gulf Stream flight datasets for a later time that could further change modeling suites tomorrow. We shall see...

The unfortunate thing is, 95 times out of a 100 without the blocking that's currently not there, the eastern half of North Carolina especially, would have almost no chance of being West of a storm. 

[Silas Lang]

Does anyone think a NW trend becoming any more likely at this point? Or is the energy still highly volatile? Feels like it has been hard to get a real trend run to run so I am still leaning on the latter at this point. 

[Carvers Gap]

31 minutes ago, John1122 said:

The GFS was a massive shift west into North Carolina with the snow shield. I don't know if we can get another one like that, but if we did it would be a very nice event for East Tennessee even at lower elevations. 

Agree.  I am not sure it can work that far back, but was just swinging by to say that.  Looks to me like models have a track and are now figuring out the slp is going to be a brute.  

[Bigbald]

4 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Does anyone think a NW trend becoming any more likely at this point? Or is the energy still highly volatile? Feels like it has been hard to get a real trend run to run so I am still leaning on the latter at this point. 

The track looked pretty similiar to me aside from the fact it gets more amped earlier, the ramifications which seems to expand the precip shield and change the track more inland for the folks in the middle Atlantic. I can't get myself excited here but I'll watch it all the way like everyone else.

[Carvers Gap]

4 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Does anyone think a NW trend becoming any more likely at this point? Or is the energy still highly volatile? Feels like it has been hard to get a real trend run to run so I am still leaning on the latter at this point. 

It has more to do with the parabola of a the track.  Need that entire parabola to slide a bit west.  I honestly don't think it has room at this point, but let's see what happens when the get recon over that energy.  I suspect we see one big shift(not idea which way) once models ingest that data.  What we really need to hope for in E TN, is for that storm to just amp big time.  If that storm is a monster which it could be...If we can get it just barely inside Hatteras with a deeper solution, that snow band might form one of the outer deformation bands as it comes through.  Then, we just need that band so set up shop and hold there as the storm wraps up.  

FWIW, I really like the pattern right after that cutter.  Have I said that yet today?  LOL

[Holston_River_Rambler]

another gem from csnavywx

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I know he's talking about the MA, but I will take any hint ohf hope that the whole system can tick a bit west. Here'e a comparison of the NAMs mentioned:

 

I think that level of analysis is above my pay grade. They look very similar. The best I can see is that the 3km is quicker to kick out a more consolidated shortwave and there's a little more interaction between the two waves at hour 60.