Winter 2021/2022 January Thread

[Carvers Gap]

The strung out looks generally have gone OTS.  The more organized systems of the past few days tend to pull westward.  We need it to slow down just a hair.  E TN is on the west side of the cone it appears which is better than not being in the cone at all.

[fountainguy97]

I'm seeing more consolidated members on 12 GEFS out to hr 102.  Only a hand full of strung out solutions now.

 

EDIT: Hr 108 the PNA continues to pump. Leading to a steeper trough. Should have more amped memebrs this time.

 

EDIT 2:  East TN is going to love this run of GEFS and its trend.

 

[BNAwx]

Dang!  Little further west and middle TN might get some fringe action.  Not likely but fun to watch.  Might have to go visit the in-laws in Greeneville, TN…

[fountainguy97]

I see a lot of left leaning members here. And several extreme right. Won't be surprised to see this tuck in right along the NC coast. 
 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I don't have much worth looking at for the 12z CMC ensembles but they are at least loading on stormvistawx and it looks like a tick west from 0z. 

[Silas Lang]

1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

I'm seeing more consolidated members on 12 GEFS out to hr 102.  Only a hand full of strung out solutions now.

 

EDIT: Hr 108 the PNA continues to pump. Leading to a steeper trough. Should have more amped memebrs this time.

 

EDIT 2:  East TN is going to love this run of GEFS and its trend.

 

Wow a lot of good looks there! Most of them look like they work out well. Glad to start seeing some ensemble support for this. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Not great resolution, but the basic idea with the CMC ensembles at 12z is that the ridge is a bit steeper and the trough is digging a bit westward:

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Not great resolution, but the basic idea with the CMC ensembles at 12z is that the ridge is a bit steeper and the trough is digging a bit westward:

Did the operational even run?

[PowellVolz]

Not great resolution, but the basic idea with the CMC ensembles at 12z is that the ridge is a bit steeper and the trough is digging a bit westward:

I’m trying not to get sucked back but it’s hard not to like these trends. Not saying it’s not impossible or even unlikely but the odds of two systems in a row taking the same path doesn’t seem realistic. Thoughts?


.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Did the operational even run?

I can't find it if it did. 

[Daniel Boone]

Just watched a local tv met and he apparently is behind the game. Looked like yesterdays model run he was using irt the week as well as weekend system. He just had the clipper affecting area Friday and nothing as far a Storm even in central NC.

     Also, mentioned " arctic air" Saturday with 32 as a high and 16 low listed. Lol. 

    I'll say this, if model data is correct even at this juncture, it won't even be close to that even at KTRI. May be a high closer to the low he presented.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, PowellVolz said:

I’m trying not to get sucked back but it’s hard not to like these trends. Not saying it’s not impossible or even unlikely but the odds of two systems in a row taking the same path doesn’t seem realistic. Thoughts?


.

I'm with you in the "not get sucked in," but the boom ceiling for this is pretty high if it all comes together just right. A couple things for me that are making it hard not to get sucked in: 1) the fact that csnavywx mentioned the models are having difficulty resolving the breakdown of the Pac ridge. That so far seems to be verifying and resulting in good trends for us up to now. 2) The northern stream energy piece is what makes this one a little different too. The last storm was mostly one shortwave that amped up as it approached the SE. This one has a major second piece dropping in from the arctic. As long as it comes in west of us, it at least gives some light clipper type snow. I don't think its impossible or even unlikely that two storms take the same track in this situation, it's just a question of whether or not that first piece of energy can hold together as it crosses the country and the angle of attack for the second. What we want to see is that member from the GEFS I posted this AM. 

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro is rolling.  Out to 42, looks nearly identical to the 12z GFS.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Compared to the 0z Euro, the ridge is coming in taller in the Pac. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Don't want to disrupt the Euro PBP too much, but just got an update on the CMC:

https://status.commoditywx.com/?utm_source=embed

[Carvers Gap]

Out to 57, the Euro is a hair quicker than the GFS but digging a bit more into North Dakota than it did at 0z

[Carvers Gap]

Not sure we see any major changes to this run of the Euro.  Looks super similar, and phase will likely be late...though it does dig a bit more.   Just likely won't be enough.  So will hold off on any updates unless this run changes.  Looks like a carbon copy of 0z up to this point. 

[Carvers Gap]

At 75, noticeable digging more into parts of Utah...nothing there at 0z.  Not sure this makes much of a difference, but would almost think this pulls back along the coast a bit east of the GFS.

[nrgjeff]

Much can happen when one thinks the clock is running out. See BUF at KC. Also synoptic discussion last page or two. Sharper ridge West and deeper trough OV would swing the low closer for us. We'll see.

22 hours ago, nrgjeff said:

Clock runs out January 31...

 

22 hours ago, Icy Hot said:

Ye forget the epic shows we've had in Feb and March in years yonder past.

I'll take an order of Feb. 2020 Chattanooga snow and KC Superbowl Champs!

[Carvers Gap]

At 81, the base of the energy is now centered over the 4-corners.  That has traditionally been a good spot for eastern storms.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I don't think this will end up being a super duper awesome run, but I think the Euro will end up having made a sizeable jump towards the GFS. 

[Carvers Gap]

Through 84, looks like a more energy is being held back by the Euro than 0z.  That could be a bias on its part.  Four Corners energy is notorious for being slow to kick on the Euro.  That said, this system could maybe benefit from exactly that.

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I don't think this will end up being a super duper awesome run, but I think the Euro will end up having made a sizeable jump towards the GFS. 

Out to 90 on the surface map, the cold front is either slower or just didn't make it as far.  That "should" give the system room to move west.  I may be wrong.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Man, I would love that look if I was a MA weenie. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

 I've not seen the surface maps, but that one also feels like it would be good for TRI

[Holston_River_Rambler]

OMG I just went back to the vort maps out to hr 120. I can't wait to see the MSLP and precip outputs, lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

Euro is a bust...held too much energy back and got strung out.  That is a major bias of that model.  It could be right, but that is how it looks when that occurs.  It held back too much energy in the southwest and washed out STJ vortices.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

OMG I just went back to the vort maps out to hr 120. I can't wait to see the MSLP and precip outputs, lol. 

Well, that didn't age well in the time it took me to look at the qpf maps, lol. But man that energy interaction just screams big storm to me.:

 

I'll take it's move towards the GFS as a win at 12z though! 

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Well, that didn't age well in the time it took me to look at the qpf maps, lol. But man that energy interaction just screams big storm to me.:

 

I'll take it's move towards the GFS as a win at 12z though! 

It does me too, but for the midatlantic and northeast............. unfortunately!  :-(

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro has a more organized 500vort look.  However, when it holds back that piece of energy(aka drags its feet), the STJ lacks the power to create anything at all until the storm begins to recurve into the the big cities of the NE.  That is a legit option, but seems like (said this before) bias coming into play.  On the vort map, you can easily see that energy from the 4 Corners get strung out.  If that energy had come out into that nice northern stream trough there would have been fireworks.  I think that likely an error.